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California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds
171–180 of 362 posts
Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds
#172Earlier quoted context omitted.
I assume this is getting downvoted because of its tone, but the sentiment is correct. The statement is nonsense. There can be wisdom in attempting to understand why anecdotes disagree with data, but the vast majority of the time it is simply a combination of selection bias and the human tendency to want to believe things that support your own worldview.
> the vast majority of the time it is simply a combination of selection bias and the human tendency to want to believe things that support your own worldview Citation needed. Given Jeff Bezos success in growing a business from scratch, this is clearly one of his secrets and why "Are right, A Lot" is an Amazon leadership principle. I'm always surprised that people are so easy to dismiss insights from successful people…
> Given Jeff Bezos success in growing a business from scratch…
One thing we have to remember, savant level of greatness in one area can often indicate deficiencies in other areas.
If I were starting an online retailer 20 years ago, I would absolutely take Bezos’ advice. There are also countless other areas where I would seek advice from those with different areas of experience.
Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds
#173Earlier quoted context omitted.
The myth (repeated endlessly here and elsewhere) is that high taxes and excessive commercial regulation are driving wealthy founders and other knowledge workers out of California. The truth is that high housing prices are driving low and middle income households out of the state.
I guess this is probably the story that gets repeated in places like HN which I agree is common. However, if you ever talk to uber drivers or your waiters they will complain about how expensive California is. Or even people at parties who are in between jobs and thinking of moving to where they grew up. I guess in real life I just hear more people talk about the general cost of living argument than a than the specifi…
I live in Texas and I whenever I go to California, I find it super expensive too! I am a unifier site professor and my salary is not very different from the professors in CA (State university salaries are public). I don’t know what is keeping those professors there.
Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds
#174This has links to several of the original reports and surveys: https://www.universityofcalifornia.edu/press-room/uc-studies...
Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds
#175Earlier quoted context omitted.
I’m skeptical about counting international immigrants here. International immigration is a function of a very specific thing, in California’s case a measure of H1-B sponsor companies. If Indians come to California so they can get an H-1B from Facebook, but their kids them move to Tennessee because of poor quality of life in California, then that’s consistent with the “exodus” theory in my opinion. I’m an immigrant fr…
Moving from NYC to Long Island is slightly different than moving from California to Tennessee, so I don't really understand your point.
I did just this, left San Francisco for Nashville. Anecdotally I’ve been seeing a huge uptick in California plates here in Nashville. Great, I did the same thing, welcome, but now don’t ruin it.
Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds
#176Well as someone moving out of California I’m having a hard time finding a moving truck, even 3 months out. uHaul and Ryder are having a hard time fulfilling demand because so many trucks are leaving California and so few are coming back.
I recently had to do this (oakland -> vegas) and was able to get a Budget truck a few weeks out. I paid a lot but it worked out at least.
Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds
#177Earlier quoted context omitted.
> who are in between jobs and thinking of moving to where they grew up I hear the opposite, people cannot afford where they grew up. Most people from the Bay Area aren’t working high paying tech jobs. > I guess in real life I just hear more people talk about the general cost of living argument than a than the specific anti-tech one. Anti-tech sentiment peaked in the early 2010s. Tech buses stopped being vandalized an…
To clarify I am saying that some people on here are saying that California is anti-business/anti-tech and that is why people are moving out. I am saying the vast majority of people moving out of CA are just doing so because general cost of living isn't a great deal. And almost by definition, if you move to California from somewhere else then "home" would be lower cost of living. Only exceptions are if you grew up in…
DC is pretty brutal some of the time. $$$
Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds
#178Earlier quoted context omitted.
> How does sampling theory support that your two experiences might be a trend? I got two flat tires in the last ten years. Does sampling theory say it's a trend? Statewide? Worldwide? I don't run with startup/entrepreneurial types, so for this to come up in the way it has with my limited exposure to these folks, I consider that at least somewhat significant. I am not saying it is definitely a trend. But I do remember…
I think those small samples need to be larger than that, and they have to be representative samples. > I am not trying to push a political narrative, and that the people who are should kindly jump off a cliff. I am not at all saying that you are. I'm saying that the narrative affects the situation. I agree about the cliff!
9 people gets you a significant portion of the confidence that a larger survey provides.
Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds
#179- The article says that "millionaire flight" out of California is a myth. This is mostly true and a good point. - However, the article/research looks at outflow and doesn't find a trend but this is bad methodology. It looks like they are not factoring in the fact that less people are moving into California then had been previously even if the rate moving out isn't too different. It almost feels intentional given how…
The myth (repeated endlessly here and elsewhere) is that high taxes and excessive commercial regulation are driving wealthy founders and other knowledge workers out of California. The truth is that high housing prices are driving low and middle income households out of the state.
As a big "two things can be true" guy, I'll point out that there is no conflict between these two stories.
Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds
#180Earlier quoted context omitted.
The election wins of Trump, Boris Johnson, Brexit and The Liberals in Australia show that data collection really matters. Similarly the financial crisis of 2009 shows that missing data can really matter. That's the key point of the quote: > There's something wrong with the way you are measuring it
But those are all examples of data collection working fine, though, and people not listening to the data because their anecdotes went the wrong way. FiveThirtyEight predicted a 28.6% chance of a Trump victory: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ This is a number far greater than zero - it is, for comparison, more likely than flipping two coins and them both coming up heads, or drawing a rando…
I agree it's a bad example re: the Bezos quote, but I also don't think it's an example of anecdotes leading people astray. IMO it's from the brand of bad pop sci that misinterprets perfectly good data while ranting about how amazing science is and how stupid anecdotes are.