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9.2% Unemployment? Blame Microsoft.

blogs.forbes.com

101–110 of 253 posts

Re: 9.2% Unemployment? Blame Microsoft.

#101
post #52

The question of whether automation causes unemployment to rise in the long run is addressed in detail here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Relationship_of_automation_to_u... TL;DNR for the Wikipedia article: People have worried about machines putting humans out of work for centuries. But the unemployment rate has not risen steadily over the same period even as technology has constantly grown. The long term trend (measu…

Well, to take another example, we don't use horses for labor anymore...Some part of the labor force -has- been replaced.

Re: 9.2% Unemployment? Blame Microsoft.

#102
post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree with everything you said but the #1 obstacle to owning you own business is seed capital. You don't have to be a genius or rich to start a company, but you do have to be willing to take a potentially big financial risk to do so. People fresh out of college don't have 20k to live off of for 6 months before they can turn a profit on a business. The average household has 10k+ in debt; those people cannot start a…

I don't think seed money is the problem. You start a company in the cloud using basic plans that total to $0/month.

I should print this out and frame this on my wall: "Why our industry is insular and tunnel visioned."

Entrepreneurialism in the vast majority of this country, let alone the world, is not at all related to computers, the internet, cloud services, or any such hoo-hah.

We exist in a little tiny sphere in a little tiny corner of all that is small businesses.

The vast majority of entrepreneurialism that happens in the world has real costs and a need for real capital. Try running a corner store when you have no money to buy inventory, or pay rent on the space.

Re: 9.2% Unemployment? Blame Microsoft.

#103
post #31

grellas, you're the man when it comes to assiduous comments on legal topics, but why this article? It's just a bunch of hard-nosed Valley boardroom hot air that namedrops from the NASDAQ-100 and tells middle america to suck it up. The only salient point was that the government has no easy way of producing more jobs, but there's no solution offered and it's buried in a sea of other BS. "Hey poor and struggling unemplo…

> "Hey poor and struggling unemployed Americans, you need to find new skills?" Seriously, Forbes needed to run a whole article dedicated to this? That is exactly the message that the unemployed and the rest of the country need to hear and take to heart. No business should expected to take on people unskilled for a job. Some businesses will do so, to grow talent, and some of those will show an ROI, but no business sho…

Yes, I believe three things have to be true:

1) We have to be clear that to be employed you need new skills (trades or science or engineering)

2) We have to find a way to encourage both the creation of skills training programs and a way to enable folks to take advantage of them.

3) We should start providing resources so that kids in school today understand that we're not 'forcing' them to go to school, they should go to school so that they can find gainful employment later (or entry into a tradeskill program).

Serious business.

Re: 9.2% Unemployment? Blame Microsoft.

#104
post #25

Jobs are just one way to distribute wealth. Technology has made many jobs unnecessary: it doesn't mean distributing wealth has become unnecessary. We will eventually have to come up with other, possibly less fair, ways to do the distribution; the reason for that won't likely be because it might be considered ethical by some but because it'll cause much more trouble to not redistribute that wealth.

> Jobs are just one way to distribute wealth. Technology has made many jobs unnecessary: it doesn't mean distributing wealth has become unnecessary.

Good point.

Re: 9.2% Unemployment? Blame Microsoft.

#105
post #31

grellas, you're the man when it comes to assiduous comments on legal topics, but why this article? It's just a bunch of hard-nosed Valley boardroom hot air that namedrops from the NASDAQ-100 and tells middle america to suck it up. The only salient point was that the government has no easy way of producing more jobs, but there's no solution offered and it's buried in a sea of other BS. "Hey poor and struggling unemplo…

> "Hey poor and struggling unemployed Americans, you need to find new skills?" Seriously, Forbes needed to run a whole article dedicated to this? That is exactly the message that the unemployed and the rest of the country need to hear and take to heart. No business should expected to take on people unskilled for a job. Some businesses will do so, to grow talent, and some of those will show an ROI, but no business sho…

>That is exactly the message that the unemployed and the rest of the country need to hear and take to heart.

I bet they and the lady at Rite-Aid regularly read Forbes magazine, right? Don't kid yourself--this article is meant for the echo-chamber. And that's why I think it's a waste of space.

Re: 9.2% Unemployment? Blame Microsoft.

#106
post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right now ND is importing welders and other skilled tradesmen from Canada. They just cannot get enough people. This whole "push people to get a real education" is a crock. People need to get the education (be it vocational or academic) that allows them to have a career that satisfies them, and not some weird perception of the world.

It's the use of the word "real". You got to come out of the other side of whatever theoretical or practical education you choose with something that makes you an asset. Education is supposed to transform you from a consumer into a producer. That's what "real" is. Tangible. I've never been to Canada but I love Eastern Europe, there's a buzz there, an energy that drove these kids to learn English and travel to where th…

Oh, I agree about the asset part. The US just went through a "must go to college" phase that is making it difficult to do infrastructure jobs that frankly are hard to outsource. Educators and funding providers really cut anything not having to do with college prep. I wonder how many people in offices would have been happier and healthier in a vocational profession. It isn't like the money is exactly that much lower, particularly given the cheaper starting costs.

Re: 9.2% Unemployment? Blame Microsoft.

#107

IMO, the problem is much more than just automation and advancement in technology. It's actually far graver, and maybe inexorable at least in the short term. Hate the man or his policies (or both), but you can't deny President Obama's observation that training education is the real problem in the so-called "jobless recovery". America as it currently stands has a total, almost prideful disregard for education (public a…

So the problem is training, and a passivity-inducing misconception of "entrepreneurship". And the solution is:

1) A flood of government equity, distributed by those ever-so-entrepreneurial bureaucrats. There is, of course, no chance that the same people who brought us ethanol subsidies ("so stupid not even the Soviets tried it"), the Fannie Mae housing bubble and the $3000 hammer won't screw it up.

2) A no-cost-to-government expansion of Medicare, which I'm sure has some Canute-like power to push back the tides of adverse selection. For efficiency and quality of service provision, please refer to sarcasm in point 1).

3) Tax credits for jobs created -- there was a day when this sort of thing was called "profit", which entrepreneurs were allowed to keep, but I suppose funding 1) and 2) will finally put paid to this dwindling concept.

Jokes about "liberals" would be easy, but unfair, as Congressional conservatives have been just about as bad, AND in violation of principles that should have guided them better.

Why on God's green earth would _programmers_ slap kludges like these on fundamental system failures? If someone proposed fixing bugs this way the collective sneering here would break the internet.

We've got billions (trillions?) already deployed in "education", whose product is widely understood as unsatisfactory at best. We just had a post showing that about 25% of the students at a well-regarded university are interested in nothing but the grade, and are so unprepared they can't imagine any way to get it on their own. Why not fix THAT?

And why is it that all fixes proposed amount to hurling more man-months at the problem?

I'm sure you mean well, and there's no doubt the problems are complicated, but seriously, this sort of thing lacks the thought I presume HN types bring to work every single day.

Re: 9.2% Unemployment? Blame Microsoft.

#108
post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's the use of the word "real". You got to come out of the other side of whatever theoretical or practical education you choose with something that makes you an asset. Education is supposed to transform you from a consumer into a producer. That's what "real" is. Tangible. I've never been to Canada but I love Eastern Europe, there's a buzz there, an energy that drove these kids to learn English and travel to where th…

Oh, I agree about the asset part. The US just went through a "must go to college" phase that is making it difficult to do infrastructure jobs that frankly are hard to outsource. Educators and funding providers really cut anything not having to do with college prep. I wonder how many people in offices would have been happier and healthier in a vocational profession. It isn't like the money is exactly that much lower,…

With the same years experience, and putting the same hours in, I'd be earning as much as a plumber today as I am as a database administrator, I am certain of it. Maybe even more, for fewer hours. It's all about supply and demand, plumbing is something I'm sure more people could learn than could learn to be a DBA, just no-one wants to, yet we all still need our pipes seen to...

Re: 9.2% Unemployment? Blame Microsoft.

#109
post #11

This could have been said about the industrial revolution, invention of agriculture, etc. Each time in our history when a new technology has made our lives more efficient some people have lost their jobs. In their place more jobs have been created that would never have been thought of before. Improvements in efficiency always lead to more wealth not less. As new tech companies start making money on their improvements…

"Each time in our history when a new technology has made our lives more efficient some people have lost their jobs."

Which kind of makes you wonder how disruptive the singularity would be.

Re: 9.2% Unemployment? Blame Microsoft.

#110
post #87

IMO, the problem is much more than just automation and advancement in technology. It's actually far graver, and maybe inexorable at least in the short term. Hate the man or his policies (or both), but you can't deny President Obama's observation that training education is the real problem in the so-called "jobless recovery". America as it currently stands has a total, almost prideful disregard for education (public a…

There is theory and there is practice. Before suggesting any additional funds for SBA loans, I would suggest you read David Einhorn's book "Fooling Some Of The People All of the Time". In short, when the govt. guarantees loans, loan standards go down and fraud goes up. Yes, there are checks and balances in place but motivated parties find ways to scam the system. It is a travesty how much wastage there is in the proc…

Perhaps if it were a national system that is centrally-controlled and disbursed end-to-end, fraud could be rampant; but if it were placed in a credit union-type "trusts" managed by each participating states, it would cut down alot more on the inherent single-point-of-fraud scenarios you envision, or at the very least contain it to the few fraudulent areas.
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