California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds • Hacker News Board

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#51

Post by fumar » Thu, Jul 08, 2021, 11:23 PM UTC

kasey_junk wrote: post #46

fumar wrote: post #33

I am a recent transplant to Southern California. In my experience, educated peers are moving to or searching for cities that provide good value based on their fiscal position. Some of them are moving to NYC or LA metros. Others are looking at Raleigh or Denver and a few Austin. What sticks out to me is how many people are relocating en masse at almost the same time.

Are you a recent transplant due to a life event like college graduation or the like? If so the correlative nature of your peers is likely not that actually interesting from a broad social perspective.

Why would you assume that? Without providing too much personal detail. I am 10 years+ of out undergrad, work for a large tech company, own property, and originally from the midwest. I consider my peer group diverse as I am a minority who grew up in a low income area but found success in college and consequently in my career.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#52

Post by fshbbdssbbgdd » Thu, Jul 08, 2021, 11:24 PM UTC

CodeWriter23 wrote: post #49

Guess the census count, which caused this is also a myth https://apnews.com/article/census-2020-government-and-politi...

The article you linked here says California’s population increased between the 2010 and 2020 census. The state lost a congressional district because other states grew faster.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#53

Post by Forge36 » Thu, Jul 08, 2021, 11:25 PM UTC

cjsplat wrote: post #31

US census data says about 650k people left California between 2018 and 2019, out of a population of 39M, or 1.6% In dramatic contrast, in Texas, 450k left out of 28M, or 1.6% Nationwide, 7 million people changed states out of 324 M, or 2.1% https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/geograph...

I think the myth is self sustaining. 200,000 more people leaving than Texas makes California look 50% worse. Ignoring the larger population is easy/accidental in many discussions.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#54

Post by mjfl » Thu, Jul 08, 2021, 11:28 PM UTC

adventured wrote: post #40

deaddodo wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You know, you gain seats by gaining population. Just because one state is growing faster doesn't mean another is losing people. Those are hardly dependent nor even expected (California gained it's massive population despite an overall high growth rate of the rest of the nation).

We know for a fact that people are no longer moving to California in large numbers from other states. That's more than a little bit suggestive of the overall context, of what's happening. And it's a big change from what used to be normal for California in the past, as it used to pull large numbers of people to it from other states. It's very obvious what's going on with California, why people no longer flock to it, a…

declines take 100s of years. No one will really notice but it will just slowly continue to get worse but not at any kind of satisfying pace, like a big crash.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#55

Post by calebm » Thu, Jul 08, 2021, 11:42 PM UTC

BitwiseFool wrote: post #6

"The thing I have noticed is when the anecdotes and the data disagree, the anecdotes are usually right. There's something wrong with the way you are measuring it." - Jeff Bezos This is a tricky article because I can tell it's using the term 'exodus' and 'myth' differently than I would. It's abundantly clear there is a lot of migration out of California. Just ask Texans, Coloradans, and Idahoans.

Going out on a limb here, but sfgate.com might have some bias. It's easy for data to be measured incorrectly when there is an incentive to getting it wrong.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#56

Post by cmckn » Thu, Jul 08, 2021, 11:44 PM UTC

BitwiseFool wrote: post #6

"The thing I have noticed is when the anecdotes and the data disagree, the anecdotes are usually right. There's something wrong with the way you are measuring it." - Jeff Bezos This is a tricky article because I can tell it's using the term 'exodus' and 'myth' differently than I would. It's abundantly clear there is a lot of migration out of California. Just ask Texans, Coloradans, and Idahoans.

That Bezos quote is pretty dodgy, but to address your point: Ask anyone in Denver and they'll tell you there's a mass exodus out of Chicago. Or ask anyone in Miami and they'll tell you there's a mass exodus out of Philly. People move around. I think this is a similar phenomenon to buying a car and "seeing that car everywhere all of a sudden." It's all about perspective. In this sense, data is always better than anecdotes.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#57

Post by solveit » Thu, Jul 08, 2021, 11:46 PM UTC

almost_usual wrote: post #41

handmodel wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I guess this is probably the story that gets repeated in places like HN which I agree is common. However, if you ever talk to uber drivers or your waiters they will complain about how expensive California is. Or even people at parties who are in between jobs and thinking of moving to where they grew up. I guess in real life I just hear more people talk about the general cost of living argument than a than the specifi…

> who are in between jobs and thinking of moving to where they grew up I hear the opposite, people cannot afford where they grew up. Most people from the Bay Area aren’t working high paying tech jobs. > I guess in real life I just hear more people talk about the general cost of living argument than a than the specific anti-tech one. Anti-tech sentiment peaked in the early 2010s. Tech buses stopped being vandalized an…

Depends where you're looking. If you look online, anti-tech sentiment has never been stronger. These are of course, very different groups of people we're talking about.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#58

Post by sellyme » Thu, Jul 08, 2021, 11:49 PM UTC

geofft wrote: post #42

lostinquebec wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The election wins of Trump, Boris Johnson, Brexit and The Liberals in Australia show that data collection really matters. Similarly the financial crisis of 2009 shows that missing data can really matter. That's the key point of the quote: > There's something wrong with the way you are measuring it

But those are all examples of data collection working fine, though, and people not listening to the data because their anecdotes went the wrong way. FiveThirtyEight predicted a 28.6% chance of a Trump victory: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ This is a number far greater than zero - it is, for comparison, more likely than flipping two coins and them both coming up heads, or drawing a rando…

> I'm less familiar with Australian politics, but assuming you mean the 2013 election

They definitely mean the 2019 election.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#59

Post by kibwen » Thu, Jul 08, 2021, 11:50 PM UTC

gameswithgo wrote: post #16

BitwiseFool wrote: post #6

"The thing I have noticed is when the anecdotes and the data disagree, the anecdotes are usually right. There's something wrong with the way you are measuring it." - Jeff Bezos This is a tricky article because I can tell it's using the term 'exodus' and 'myth' differently than I would. It's abundantly clear there is a lot of migration out of California. Just ask Texans, Coloradans, and Idahoans.

what a dumb quote by bezos

I assume this is getting downvoted because of its tone, but the sentiment is correct. The statement is nonsense. There can be wisdom in attempting to understand why anecdotes disagree with data, but the vast majority of the time it is simply a combination of selection bias and the human tendency to want to believe things that support your own worldview.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#60

Post by tomc1985 » Thu, Jul 08, 2021, 11:50 PM UTC

xadhominemx wrote: post #3

handmodel wrote: post #2

- The article says that "millionaire flight" out of California is a myth. This is mostly true and a good point. - However, the article/research looks at outflow and doesn't find a trend but this is bad methodology. It looks like they are not factoring in the fact that less people are moving into California then had been previously even if the rate moving out isn't too different. It almost feels intentional given how…

The myth (repeated endlessly here and elsewhere) is that high taxes and excessive commercial regulation are driving wealthy founders and other knowledge workers out of California. The truth is that high housing prices are driving low and middle income households out of the state.

Years ago (2007ish) I worked for a startup owned by a guy that relocated to Reno and had a huge property in some mountaintop country club on the edge of the city line. As we stood in the snow, looking out over Reno (where they had none) he was telling me all about how the money he saved on taxes in California 100% financed the property we were standing on. It was a very nice house... guessing about 4000 or 5000 sqft.

Many many years later I was sitting at the bar at the top of the Stratosphere in Las Vegas eavesdropping on a conversation by a guy who started some kind of sanitation or janitorial business. He was trying to impress a woman that he was talking with, and I distinctly remember him saying he'd be eaten alive if he started the company in California, and that he was thankful for the tax situation in Nevada.

So I don't think this is entirely a myth.