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California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

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Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#31
US census data says about 650k people left California between 2018 and 2019, out of a population of 39M, or 1.6%

In dramatic contrast, in Texas, 450k left out of 28M, or 1.6%

Nationwide, 7 million people changed states out of 324 M, or 2.1%

https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/geograph...

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#32
post #29
post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just my little data point but I moved into a sleepy little ID town that has a lot of people that have moved here from SoCal, and of the 5 people I asked "what brought all the way up to Idaho from California?" 4 of them commented on how expensive California was and the high cost of living. 3 of them also stated that they didn't like how things were happening in Cali. Again small anecdotal data point but take it for wh…

> How things were happening What does that mean?

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Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#33
I am a recent transplant to Southern California. In my experience, educated peers are moving to or searching for cities that provide good value based on their fiscal position. Some of them are moving to NYC or LA metros. Others are looking at Raleigh or Denver and a few Austin. What sticks out to me is how many people are relocating en masse at almost the same time.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you have data to back that up? Do we know that the number of Californians leaving is higher than before, and if so, by how much?

I do not have any data to present. I only have my personal observations and anecdotes from my peers. Which is why something seems off when this article claims the exodus is a myth when I see so many California license plates and when my realtor friend says a lot of Californians are buying up houses in the local market. I don't claim to be a better researcher than the folks in the article but the conclusion doesn't se…

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Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The myth (repeated endlessly here and elsewhere) is that high taxes and excessive commercial regulation are driving wealthy founders and other knowledge workers out of California. The truth is that high housing prices are driving low and middle income households out of the state.

I guess this is probably the story that gets repeated in places like HN which I agree is common. However, if you ever talk to uber drivers or your waiters they will complain about how expensive California is. Or even people at parties who are in between jobs and thinking of moving to where they grew up. I guess in real life I just hear more people talk about the general cost of living argument than a than the specifi…

If anything it's easier for tech people to ignore the high costs of living.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#37
I know several that have left for Texas. I know one that left for Michigan. One that left for San Diego. A few that left for Seattle. So it’s very real. Whether or not it moves the needle though is the bigger question. I myself would never move unless some sort of environmental catastrophe hit it, like forest fires or no more water which is actually a possibility.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#38

I know several that have left for Texas. I know one that left for Michigan. One that left for San Diego. A few that left for Seattle. So it’s very real. Whether or not it moves the needle though is the bigger question. I myself would never move unless some sort of environmental catastrophe hit it, like forest fires or no more water which is actually a possibility.

Anecdotes are not statistical facts. Did you read the story? It clearly shows that statistically, no, it's not real.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you have data to back that up? Do we know that the number of Californians leaving is higher than before, and if so, by how much?

California is losing a house seat, while Texas and Colorado are gaining one (or two for Texas). While the census doesn't account for the difference between growth rate and migration, it seems pretty suggestive to me. https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2021/04/2020-census-d...

California grew 6% from 2010 to 2020 while the country grew 7%. Hardly a smoking gun.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

California is losing a house seat, while Texas and Colorado are gaining one (or two for Texas). While the census doesn't account for the difference between growth rate and migration, it seems pretty suggestive to me. https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2021/04/2020-census-d...

You know, you gain seats by gaining population. Just because one state is growing faster doesn't mean another is losing people. Those are hardly dependent nor even expected (California gained it's massive population despite an overall high growth rate of the rest of the nation).

We know for a fact that people are no longer moving to California in large numbers from other states. That's more than a little bit suggestive of the overall context, of what's happening. And it's a big change from what used to be normal for California in the past, as it used to pull large numbers of people to it from other states.

It's very obvious what's going on with California, why people no longer flock to it, and it's going to get a lot worse yet rather than better. If the flight from California isn't obvious enough yet, it will be. Given California's population growth has already stagnated, what comes next is going to be decline.

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