California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds • Hacker News Board

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#21

Post by hpoe » Thu, Jul 08, 2021, 10:28 PM UTC

BitwiseFool wrote: post #6

"The thing I have noticed is when the anecdotes and the data disagree, the anecdotes are usually right. There's something wrong with the way you are measuring it." - Jeff Bezos This is a tricky article because I can tell it's using the term 'exodus' and 'myth' differently than I would. It's abundantly clear there is a lot of migration out of California. Just ask Texans, Coloradans, and Idahoans.

I'll throw in my 2 cents that I can confirm the anecdote. I just moved to a small town in Idaho because my wife was from there. We found our house because several new developments are going up.

As I've been chatting with some people at church* I was told that about 1/3 of the people that attend have moved to our little town in Idaho from Southern California in the past 2 years or so. That might not seem like much, but considering that this is small town in the middle of Idaho it seemed like a pretty big deal to me. It's especially interesting to see many people who have more traditional jobs, often revolving around construction or the cultivation of potatoes interacting with many of the white collar, MBA type Cali expats.

* Note: The church I attend is a world wide church and divides it's congregations based on geographic area, encouraging people to attend the service based on where they live. This point is made to forestall the correlation causation criticism, that would imply the church I attend is particularlye attractive to people that have recently moved in from SoCal,

EDIT: Just to clarify my wife and I did not move from Cali, we moved from Utah, because it was getting filled up with people from Cali, that resulted in prices for housing going up considerably.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#22

Post by Cookingboy » Thu, Jul 08, 2021, 10:30 PM UTC

teachrdan wrote: post #8

BitwiseFool wrote: post #6

"The thing I have noticed is when the anecdotes and the data disagree, the anecdotes are usually right. There's something wrong with the way you are measuring it." - Jeff Bezos This is a tricky article because I can tell it's using the term 'exodus' and 'myth' differently than I would. It's abundantly clear there is a lot of migration out of California. Just ask Texans, Coloradans, and Idahoans.

Do you have data to back that up? Do we know that the number of Californians leaving is higher than before, and if so, by how much?

Anecdotal data is still data, just not conclusive data. But there is a Chinese saying "无风不起浪", which roughly translates to “If there are waves on the water, there must be wind somewhere".

We are hearing a ton of these anecdotal stories very recently about Californians moving to other states, especially wealthy, higher income individuals. My gut feeling is that there is some material shift behind it and our systematically measured data could simply just be lagging at the moment, or they are measuring the wrong things.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#23

Post by haswell » Thu, Jul 08, 2021, 10:31 PM UTC

rayiner wrote: post #4

Careful framing of the purported “myth” is critical: > For one, while residents are moving out of state, they are not doing so at "unusual rates." Similarly, the research found no evidence of "millionaire flight" from California and notes that the state continues to attract as much venture capital as all other U.S. states combined, despite the recent exodus of Hewlett-Packard and Oracle. Who is saying California is u…

> Who is saying California is unattractive for rich people and venture capital?

One potential source: this is a popular conservative talking point about the dangers of liberal government, and the "exodus" is often used as evidence to justify those talking points.

"See, just look at California, they implemented , and everyone is leaving the state". This kind of viewpoint is rampant on places like /r/conservative, and is often followed by similar mischaracterizations of life in Chicago. This always fascinates me - it seems like people are actually excited about the perceived negative forces driving people out, because they feel it validates their viewpoints about certain policies, even when the evidence to support correlation (never mind causation) doesn’t seem to exist.

I haven’t encountered much serious discourse about California being unattractive to people with means.

Edit: I’ve upset some folks with this comment. I’m curious to know how/why.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#24

Post by MangoCoffee » Thu, Jul 08, 2021, 10:33 PM UTC

teachrdan wrote: post #8

BitwiseFool wrote: post #6

"The thing I have noticed is when the anecdotes and the data disagree, the anecdotes are usually right. There's something wrong with the way you are measuring it." - Jeff Bezos This is a tricky article because I can tell it's using the term 'exodus' and 'myth' differently than I would. It's abundantly clear there is a lot of migration out of California. Just ask Texans, Coloradans, and Idahoans.

Do you have data to back that up? Do we know that the number of Californians leaving is higher than before, and if so, by how much?

California lost a seat in the Congress while Texas gain two seats. California exodus might be a myth but there is no inflow of people while Texas is gaining more people from other states.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#25

Post by deaddodo » Thu, Jul 08, 2021, 10:33 PM UTC

BitwiseFool wrote: post #6

"The thing I have noticed is when the anecdotes and the data disagree, the anecdotes are usually right. There's something wrong with the way you are measuring it." - Jeff Bezos This is a tricky article because I can tell it's using the term 'exodus' and 'myth' differently than I would. It's abundantly clear there is a lot of migration out of California. Just ask Texans, Coloradans, and Idahoans.

> It's abundantly clear there is a lot of migration out of California. Just ask Texans, Coloradans, and Idahoans.

Or, you know, people generally migrate between states and Californians make up 13% of the population.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#26

Post by deaddodo » Thu, Jul 08, 2021, 10:37 PM UTC

alanbernstein wrote: post #18

teachrdan wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you have data to back that up? Do we know that the number of Californians leaving is higher than before, and if so, by how much?

California is losing a house seat, while Texas and Colorado are gaining one (or two for Texas). While the census doesn't account for the difference between growth rate and migration, it seems pretty suggestive to me. https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2021/04/2020-census-d...

You know, you gain seats by gaining population. Just because one state is growing faster doesn't mean another is losing people. Those are hardly dependent nor even expected (California gained it's massive population despite an overall high growth rate of the rest of the nation).

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#27

Post by hpoe » Thu, Jul 08, 2021, 10:38 PM UTC

xadhominemx wrote: post #3

handmodel wrote: post #2

- The article says that "millionaire flight" out of California is a myth. This is mostly true and a good point. - However, the article/research looks at outflow and doesn't find a trend but this is bad methodology. It looks like they are not factoring in the fact that less people are moving into California then had been previously even if the rate moving out isn't too different. It almost feels intentional given how…

The myth (repeated endlessly here and elsewhere) is that high taxes and excessive commercial regulation are driving wealthy founders and other knowledge workers out of California. The truth is that high housing prices are driving low and middle income households out of the state.

Just my little data point but I moved into a sleepy little ID town that has a lot of people that have moved here from SoCal, and of the 5 people I asked "what brought all the way up to Idaho from California?" 4 of them commented on how expensive California was and the high cost of living. 3 of them also stated that they didn't like how things were happening in Cali.

Again small anecdotal data point but take it for what it is worth.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#28

Post by gizmo686 » Thu, Jul 08, 2021, 10:43 PM UTC

Cookingboy wrote: post #22

teachrdan wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you have data to back that up? Do we know that the number of Californians leaving is higher than before, and if so, by how much?

Anecdotal data is still data, just not conclusive data. But there is a Chinese saying "无风不起浪", which roughly translates to “If there are waves on the water, there must be wind somewhere". We are hearing a ton of these anecdotal stories very recently about Californians moving to other states, especially wealthy, higher income individuals. My gut feeling is that there is some material shift behind it and our systematic…

Anecdotal data that you do not collect yourself is subject manipulation (both deliberate and incidental) by the people who do collect it. There are over 300 million people in the US, you can collect anecdotal data for just about any narrative you want.

Anecdotal data you collect yourself is subject to your own biases, but is probably a decent reflection of the bubble you live in.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#29

Post by fumar » Thu, Jul 08, 2021, 10:44 PM UTC

hpoe wrote: post #27

xadhominemx wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The myth (repeated endlessly here and elsewhere) is that high taxes and excessive commercial regulation are driving wealthy founders and other knowledge workers out of California. The truth is that high housing prices are driving low and middle income households out of the state.

Just my little data point but I moved into a sleepy little ID town that has a lot of people that have moved here from SoCal, and of the 5 people I asked "what brought all the way up to Idaho from California?" 4 of them commented on how expensive California was and the high cost of living. 3 of them also stated that they didn't like how things were happening in Cali. Again small anecdotal data point but take it for wh…

> How things were happening

What does that mean?

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#30

Post by fumar » Thu, Jul 08, 2021, 10:45 PM UTC

deregulateMed wrote: post #10

rayiner wrote: post #4

Careful framing of the purported “myth” is critical: > For one, while residents are moving out of state, they are not doing so at "unusual rates." Similarly, the research found no evidence of "millionaire flight" from California and notes that the state continues to attract as much venture capital as all other U.S. states combined, despite the recent exodus of Hewlett-Packard and Oracle. Who is saying California is u…

And these people will be replaced by less experienced or less talented workers. I recently heard a low performer get hired at a FAANG company and wondered how this person managed to trick that company into hiring him.

Is this satire? If it is, spot-on commentary.