California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds
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Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds
#2- The article says that "millionaire flight" out of California is a myth. This is mostly true and a good point.
- However, the article/research looks at outflow and doesn't find a trend but this is bad methodology. It looks like they are not factoring in the fact that less people are moving into California then had been previously even if the rate moving out isn't too different. It almost feels intentional given how clean and well-covered the data is on that.
This opening paragraph is good
>Every year from 2000 through 2015, more people left California than moved in from other states. This migration was not spread evenly across all income groups, a Sacramento Bee review of U.S. Census Bureau data found. The people leaving tend to be relatively poor, and many lack college degrees. Move higher up the income spectrum, and slightly more people are coming than going.
Source: https://www.sacbee.com/news/california/article136478098.html
Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds
#3- The article says that "millionaire flight" out of California is a myth. This is mostly true and a good point. - However, the article/research looks at outflow and doesn't find a trend but this is bad methodology. It looks like they are not factoring in the fact that less people are moving into California then had been previously even if the rate moving out isn't too different. It almost feels intentional given how…
The myth (repeated endlessly here and elsewhere) is that high taxes and excessive commercial regulation are driving wealthy founders and other knowledge workers out of California. The truth is that high housing prices are driving low and middle income households out of the state.
Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds
#4Careful framing of the purported “myth” is critical:
> For one, while residents are moving out of state, they are not doing so at "unusual rates." Similarly, the research found no evidence of "millionaire flight" from California and notes that the state continues to attract as much venture capital as all other U.S. states combined, despite the recent exodus of Hewlett-Packard and Oracle.
Who is saying California is unattractive for rich people and venture capital? The people leaving are middle and lower income people.
Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds
#5Housing is the real problem. I still live in the neighborhood where I grew up in Southern California. Back when I was a kid, we used to have street gangs, but they’ve all been gentrified out. They’re putting up a new housing complex in my neighborhood, and I learned that I qualify for the affordable housing units on a senior developer salary, because it’s below the median income.
Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds
#6"The thing I have noticed is when the anecdotes and the data disagree, the anecdotes are usually right. There's something wrong with the way you are measuring it." - Jeff Bezos
This is a tricky article because I can tell it's using the term 'exodus' and 'myth' differently than I would. It's abundantly clear there is a lot of migration out of California. Just ask Texans, Coloradans, and Idahoans.
Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds
#7you're right, none of my friends have moved out of CA ;)
Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds
#8"The thing I have noticed is when the anecdotes and the data disagree, the anecdotes are usually right. There's something wrong with the way you are measuring it." - Jeff Bezos This is a tricky article because I can tell it's using the term 'exodus' and 'myth' differently than I would. It's abundantly clear there is a lot of migration out of California. Just ask Texans, Coloradans, and Idahoans.
Do you have data to back that up? Do we know that the number of Californians leaving is higher than before, and if so, by how much?
Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds
#9- The article says that "millionaire flight" out of California is a myth. This is mostly true and a good point. - However, the article/research looks at outflow and doesn't find a trend but this is bad methodology. It looks like they are not factoring in the fact that less people are moving into California then had been previously even if the rate moving out isn't too different. It almost feels intentional given how…
The myth (repeated endlessly here and elsewhere) is that high taxes and excessive commercial regulation are driving wealthy founders and other knowledge workers out of California. The truth is that high housing prices are driving low and middle income households out of the state.
California has much lower housing costs outside of major cities. It’s exodus is seen as unusual simply because it’s a a populous state, but rate wise it’s hardly unusual. IMO, people leaving California in large numbers is also a function of how many people move into the state because people who moved long distances once are more likely to move again.
As 2020 was a serious outlier I am sticking with U.S. states by net domestic migration (From July 1, 2018 to July 1, 2019):
Net domestic migration rate per 1,000 inhabitants: Alaska −12.96, Hawaii −9.76, New York −9.29, Illinois −8.28, Connecticut −6.19, Louisiana −5.60, New Jersey −5.51, California −5.15, skipping several places Delaware 7.15, South Carolina 10.30, Arizona 12.50, Nevada 14.03, Idaho 15.31. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_and_territ...
It’s the territories that are seeing the fastest changes. American Samoa –26.1, Guam –11.0, Northern Mariana Islands –15.4, Puerto Rico –14.1, U.S. Virgin Islands –7.5
Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds
#10Careful framing of the purported “myth” is critical: > For one, while residents are moving out of state, they are not doing so at "unusual rates." Similarly, the research found no evidence of "millionaire flight" from California and notes that the state continues to attract as much venture capital as all other U.S. states combined, despite the recent exodus of Hewlett-Packard and Oracle. Who is saying California is u…
And these people will be replaced by less experienced or less talented workers.
I recently heard a low performer get hired at a FAANG company and wondered how this person managed to trick that company into hiring him.