9.2% Unemployment? Blame Microsoft. • Hacker News Board

Re: 9.2% Unemployment? Blame Microsoft.

#11

Post by pat2man » Mon, Jul 18, 2011, 5:57 PM UTC

This could have been said about the industrial revolution, invention of agriculture, etc. Each time in our history when a new technology has made our lives more efficient some people have lost their jobs. In their place more jobs have been created that would never have been thought of before.

Improvements in efficiency always lead to more wealth not less. As new tech companies start making money on their improvements on society new jobs will be created all over the world. Yes checkout clerks will no longer exist just as many manufacturing jobs have disappeared. In their place we will see more software developers, consultants, entertainers and artists.

Re: 9.2% Unemployment? Blame Microsoft.

#12

Post by [deleted] » Mon, Jul 18, 2011, 5:57 PM UTC

[deleted]

Re: 9.2% Unemployment? Blame Microsoft.

#13

Post by mcantelon » Mon, Jul 18, 2011, 5:59 PM UTC

pat2man wrote: post #11

This could have been said about the industrial revolution, invention of agriculture, etc. Each time in our history when a new technology has made our lives more efficient some people have lost their jobs. In their place more jobs have been created that would never have been thought of before. Improvements in efficiency always lead to more wealth not less. As new tech companies start making money on their improvements…

>Improvements in efficiency always lead to more wealth not less.

More wealth, yes, but not necessary wealth that gets distributed (as productivity in the US has increased, real wages have decreased).

http://www.epi.org/publications/entry/bp195/

Re: 9.2% Unemployment? Blame Microsoft.

#14

Post by barista » Mon, Jul 18, 2011, 6:01 PM UTC

Upvote for anything that blames Microsoft! ;)

Re: 9.2% Unemployment? Blame Microsoft.

#15

Post by AlisdairO » Mon, Jul 18, 2011, 6:05 PM UTC

pat2man wrote: post #11

This could have been said about the industrial revolution, invention of agriculture, etc. Each time in our history when a new technology has made our lives more efficient some people have lost their jobs. In their place more jobs have been created that would never have been thought of before. Improvements in efficiency always lead to more wealth not less. As new tech companies start making money on their improvements…

I'm not so sure. I think we will continue to create highly skilled jobs, but I just don't see where unskilled labour gets a look-in in the new economy - In the past, it was reasonably easy to see where new jobs might come from, whereas I just don't see anything much coming up. We're even replacing more and more service jobs, which were what took over as farming and industry employment declined.

I agree, there will probably be more wealth - I just think the distribution of that wealth may well be societally damaging.

Re: 9.2% Unemployment? Blame Microsoft.

#16

Post by Locke1689 » Mon, Jul 18, 2011, 6:08 PM UTC

mcantelon wrote: post #13

pat2man wrote: post #11

This could have been said about the industrial revolution, invention of agriculture, etc. Each time in our history when a new technology has made our lives more efficient some people have lost their jobs. In their place more jobs have been created that would never have been thought of before. Improvements in efficiency always lead to more wealth not less. As new tech companies start making money on their improvements…

>Improvements in efficiency always lead to more wealth not less. More wealth, yes, but not necessary wealth that gets distributed (as productivity in the US has increased, real wages have decreased). http://www.epi.org/publications/entry/bp195/

This is irrelevant because our economy is currently in the middle of the "retooling" phase (c.f. Luddite, Industrial Revolution). The wealth will be fundamentally unevenly distributed until new skilled work takes hold.

Re: 9.2% Unemployment? Blame Microsoft.

#17

Post by Locke1689 » Mon, Jul 18, 2011, 6:10 PM UTC

jvandenbroeck wrote: post #2

One of those articles that just waste your time, catchy title but nothing really interesting or new.

Nothing that gets posted is ever really new, but this article does point out something very important: manufacturing output in the US is at an all-time high in the US, while manufacturing employment is low. While I've been predicting this for quite a while, the actual realization is quite interesting and the societal consequences are enormous.

Re: 9.2% Unemployment? Blame Microsoft.

#18

Post by streptomycin » Mon, Jul 18, 2011, 6:12 PM UTC

pat2man wrote: post #11

This could have been said about the industrial revolution, invention of agriculture, etc. Each time in our history when a new technology has made our lives more efficient some people have lost their jobs. In their place more jobs have been created that would never have been thought of before. Improvements in efficiency always lead to more wealth not less. As new tech companies start making money on their improvements…

http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/philg/2010/08/08/unemployed-21s...

> “there was a type of employee at the beginning of the Industrial Revolution whose job and livelihood largely vanished in the early twentieth century. This was the horse. The population of working horses actually peaked in England long after the Industrial Revolution, in 1901, when 3.25 million were at work. Though they had been replaced by rail for long-distance haulage and by steam engines for driving machinery, they still plowed fields, hauled wagons and carriages short distances, pulled boats on the canals, toiled in the pits, and carried armies into battle. But the arrival of the internal combustion engine in the late nineteenth century rapidly displaced these workers, so that by 1924 there were fewer than two million. There was always a wage at which all these horses could have remained employed. But that wage was so low that it did not pay for their feed.”

Re: 9.2% Unemployment? Blame Microsoft.

#19

Post by ojbyrne » Mon, Jul 18, 2011, 6:14 PM UTC

So looking at this article - http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/census/2011-01-06-us-pop... - my quick calculation shows that the US population is growing at about 1.3% annually. Which means there's somewhat more than 7 million new Americans since 2008 (back of the envelope produces a number of 8 million).

Which, combined with the fact that GDP has barely recovered since 2008, kind of invalidates the article - i.e its reasonable to assume that the number of jobs has not actually decreased, but has stayed static, and that that is most likely due to the depression.

Re: 9.2% Unemployment? Blame Microsoft.

#20

Post by Symmetry » Mon, Jul 18, 2011, 6:14 PM UTC

mcantelon wrote: post #13

pat2man wrote: post #11

This could have been said about the industrial revolution, invention of agriculture, etc. Each time in our history when a new technology has made our lives more efficient some people have lost their jobs. In their place more jobs have been created that would never have been thought of before. Improvements in efficiency always lead to more wealth not less. As new tech companies start making money on their improvements…

>Improvements in efficiency always lead to more wealth not less. More wealth, yes, but not necessary wealth that gets distributed (as productivity in the US has increased, real wages have decreased). http://www.epi.org/publications/entry/bp195/

Real wages may have decreased, but total compensation has been increasing steadily, at least on a per worker basis instead of a per-household one. A lot of that has been increases in the cost of health insurance paid for by employers, but some has been more vacation time, 401K matching, etc.