US-Canada heatwave 'virtually impossible' without warming • Hacker News Board

Re: US-Canada heatwave 'virtually impossible' without warming

#151

Post by neilalexander » Thu, Jul 08, 2021, 1:50 PM UTC

pjc50 wrote: post #129

melling wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I know. People have all kinds of silly ideas on how to slow climate change. http://h4labs.org/ive-got-another-stupid-idea-to-deal-with-c... I did try to convince people to use nuclear power for a couple decades. Now I’m told it’s too late. The windmills and solar are still coming…

The UK has in the past couple of decades massively expanded its wind production, somewhat expanded its solar, and not quite completed one nuclear plant. Coal is almost entirely phased out, its use is zero most days. (gridwatch is currently broken but you can see that we're now gas-with-some-renewables if you look back a few days: https://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/ ) The key to getting this to work in other countrie…

https://grid.iamkate.com and https://gridwatch.co.uk/ have the same data but represented in graphs that don't require a magnifying glass to see.

Re: US-Canada heatwave 'virtually impossible' without warming

#152

Post by jokoon » Thu, Jul 08, 2021, 1:52 PM UTC

qayxc wrote: post #145

jokoon wrote: post #23

I'm starting to think that governments and people will be unable to fight CO2 emissions for several reasons: * Reducing living standards is counter intuitive when consumerism is the norm, in France the Yellow Vests movement showed that it's very difficult to tax carbon if it punish poor people. Inequality and carbon emissions are deeply intertwined. * People will just consume, feel guilty, maybe take some individual…

The primary reason is that every organisation focuses on their own personal gains (mostly: power and influence). Carbon taxes are stupid because it's just another metric that can and will simply be gamed by the industry without any net positive effect. It would be sufficient to just price goods and services according to their environmental impact. Example: most Spanish vegetables and citrus fruit should be priced at…

It is the way, because it allows for the accounting of carbon.

Re: US-Canada heatwave 'virtually impossible' without warming

#153

Post by ALLTaken » Thu, Jul 08, 2021, 1:55 PM UTC

pjc50 wrote: post #131

ALLTaken wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wasn't the Trump administration in effect ordering the deletion of all climate data [1]? I remember there was a very hefty reaction amongst scientists. I was also furious about that, even as a european. That data was gold. - [1] https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/climate-web-pages... I'm sorry, I really don't touch politic topics and don't want to limit my thinking to binary left/right leafs of thinking, so r…

It was mostly a political change rather than really impacting data collection and actual science, but it was still a hugely wrong decision by the right.

I wasn't there and could inform myself only through media. So no climate data wasn't actually deleted? That'd be a big relief =)

Re: US-Canada heatwave 'virtually impossible' without warming

#154

Post by JulianMorrison » Thu, Jul 08, 2021, 1:56 PM UTC

aww_dang wrote: post #70

JulianMorrison wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is a causal arrow from climate to weather. It just isn't as crude as "warm planet equals warm weather". It would be closer to the truth to say "warm planet equals more unsettled weather, averaging warmer over the large scale, but including unseasonal cold as (for example) wind patterns distort".

I appreciate that. From the perspective of the skeptic the Popper quote comes to mind. Karl Popper — 'A theory that explains everything, explains nothing'

The averaged temperature anomaly, relative to pre-industrial temperatures (or even relative to a few decades ago), as measured by various scientific means, is hot and getting hotter. That isn't an explains-everything theory. That's prediction and confirmation.

Re: US-Canada heatwave 'virtually impossible' without warming

#155

Post by UncleMeat » Thu, Jul 08, 2021, 1:57 PM UTC

rimliu wrote: post #117

_hl_ wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which is why, for this type of research, you use an ensemble of multiple competing models, which also helps with extracting probabilities. If you think their methodology is flawed, then have the decency to respect the enormous amount of effort that goes into this kind of research and point out actual, specific flaws.

I respect the research. That's a different thing than having any confidence in the models created. I also do not think that methodology is flawed, but that it does not produce reliable results (yet) because of the enormous complexity involved.

Why do you feel that the people who work on and with these models for their careers have different opinions than you?

Re: US-Canada heatwave 'virtually impossible' without warming

#156

Post by minikites » Thu, Jul 08, 2021, 1:58 PM UTC

trabant00 wrote: post #139

"When will people wake up?" "Politicians don't care!" "Rich people are just greedy!" "Animals are dying!" "Science deniers!" What are those but moral and/or intellectual superiority declarations? And they're false too! We historically never cared or done as much for the environment as we do right now. Cars are getting stricter pollution norms on a schedule. Home appliances are rated by efficiency, we even banned some…

>But it's downright dishonest to say we don't care or do.

If I exercise once a month and spend the other 29 days sitting around, is it dishonest to say I care about physical fitness?

>The solutions left to be found are nowhere clear or easy.

They're very clear, they're just not easy, because they're unpopular, because they involve people being less greedy and selfish. We could tax pollution and punish polluters far more than we do now. We could take some of the unimaginable wealth away from billionaires and use that money to improve infrastructure and other parts of society to be more green. But we won't, because greed and selfishness are virtues of modern life and we believe that a single person should reap all of the benefits from the work of the thousands of people below them.

Re: US-Canada heatwave 'virtually impossible' without warming

#157

Post by tolbish » Thu, Jul 08, 2021, 1:59 PM UTC

KozmoNau7 wrote: post #90

syops wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m curious why you ask this question. Does the answer matter or in some way lead to a broader point? If so what is that point? Assume it’s the worst possible energy source as far as you are concerned. Then what is your response?

Shaming individuals for the crimes of an entire society and corporations, is so disingenuous and lazy, but it pops up in every single discussion on this subject.

Society and corporations are comprised of, and run by, individuals.

Re: US-Canada heatwave 'virtually impossible' without warming

#158

Post by School-Cotton » Thu, Jul 08, 2021, 2:02 PM UTC

trabant00 wrote: post #139

"When will people wake up?" "Politicians don't care!" "Rich people are just greedy!" "Animals are dying!" "Science deniers!" What are those but moral and/or intellectual superiority declarations? And they're false too! We historically never cared or done as much for the environment as we do right now. Cars are getting stricter pollution norms on a schedule. Home appliances are rated by efficiency, we even banned some…

Investing in renewables and mandating efficiency is great, so I’m not picking on those parts of your post. But why do people talk about things like recycling, banning plastic waste, etc. in the same breath as discussion of CO2 emissions and climate change? They are completely separate topics.

In fact I think the recycling and banning plastics movements are actively harmful to climate change mitigation because they give people a false sense of security: “see, we’re doing something!”

Re: US-Canada heatwave 'virtually impossible' without warming

#159

Post by realityking » Thu, Jul 08, 2021, 2:02 PM UTC

pif wrote: post #58

jokoon wrote: post #23

I'm starting to think that governments and people will be unable to fight CO2 emissions for several reasons: * Reducing living standards is counter intuitive when consumerism is the norm, in France the Yellow Vests movement showed that it's very difficult to tax carbon if it punish poor people. Inequality and carbon emissions are deeply intertwined. * People will just consume, feel guilty, maybe take some individual…

I've been saying this for several years now: global warming is here to stay. Let's stop wasting time talking about giving up comfort in the hope that maybe the whole world will follow and the 2° will maybe become 1.5°. Stop it! Climate is changing: it's a fact, let's stop whining, let's accept it and especially let's face it. The question must not be: "what can we all do do mitigate the problem?" The question must be…

> The question must be: "what can I do to enjoy life as much as possible within the current framework and without stealing from my neighbor?"

And what about the next generation(s)?

Climate change might have disastrous consequences in my life time (I’m early 30s) but it’ll pale in comparison to what coming generations have to face. Whatever we can do today to give them a leg up is valuable.

Re: US-Canada heatwave 'virtually impossible' without warming

#160

Post by tolbish » Thu, Jul 08, 2021, 2:03 PM UTC

trabant00 wrote: post #139

"When will people wake up?" "Politicians don't care!" "Rich people are just greedy!" "Animals are dying!" "Science deniers!" What are those but moral and/or intellectual superiority declarations? And they're false too! We historically never cared or done as much for the environment as we do right now. Cars are getting stricter pollution norms on a schedule. Home appliances are rated by efficiency, we even banned some…

Oh no, a problem that isn't clear or easy. Better wash our hands of it and call it a day, huh.

If we can convince countries to stop killing their own people, we can convince countries to curb their emissions. We are not doing close to enough, and the measures we have taken so far can hardly be counted as half-assed.