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US-Canada heatwave 'virtually impossible' without warming

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141–150 of 224 posts

Re: US-Canada heatwave 'virtually impossible' without warming

#142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What I don't understand is what people who argue against climate change stand to gain. The argument for climate change is: "humans are polluting the planet and it's causing a change in the environment and will have a disastrous effect on the climate." The arguments I hear against climate change always seem to concede that humans are polluting the planet, but argue in different ways (natural cycle/not really happening…

What I don't understand is people who deny climate history. Facts are facts.

What I don't understand is HN readers who downvote statements like yours which should be common sense to intellects. Or maybe I do understand and am saddened by the way everything has been politicized here.

Re: US-Canada heatwave 'virtually impossible' without warming

#143
post #39

I've been cranking up my AC and adding ice to my water to combat the heat but I recently read an article about sea-life [0] boiling to death in their natural habitats (oceans, seas) which made me realize that animals in the wild increasingly don't have this option. It made me really sad to think about the fact that we'll probably see mass-extinction events (for animals, etc.) in the near future or at least within my…

It already is a mass extinction event, globally, by any historical standards. But yes, it could get worse.

It's been happening for a very long time. Some put it back to the times when humans left Africa. It's known as the Holocene Extinction [0]. Though, it has never been as bad as these last couple of centuries.

I think the fact that people don't seem to be aware of this is a massive failure of our society and in particular the education system. I do not know, but I would like to believe that it would have made a difference if we were all aware of how huge our impact is on the biosphere is.

Refs: [0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holocene_extinction

Re: US-Canada heatwave 'virtually impossible' without warming

#144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It isn't being conflated. The way this sort of research works is by modeling weather under different conditions and determining that certain weather patterns are statistically more likely under conditions consistent with global warming. This isn't just "it is hot for a week so that must be global warming". It is "the air patterns that are required for this sort of thing to happen are highly associated with higher ave…

Did you read even one of the articles I linked? But the BBC article... "the research has not yet been peer-reviewed. "They used 21 climate models to estimate..." "They compared the climate as it is today, with the world as it would be without human-induced warming." This is not empirical science. And by using a 1000 year model they are starting their analysis, conveniently, after the peak of the Roman Warm Period.

> And by using a 1000 year model they are starting their analysis, conveniently, after the peak of the Roman Warm Period.

They don't seem to be using a 1000 year model, they are just saying the rate of occurrence. And when do you think the Romans, and their related warming period, were exactly?

Re: US-Canada heatwave 'virtually impossible' without warming

#145
post #23

I'm starting to think that governments and people will be unable to fight CO2 emissions for several reasons: * Reducing living standards is counter intuitive when consumerism is the norm, in France the Yellow Vests movement showed that it's very difficult to tax carbon if it punish poor people. Inequality and carbon emissions are deeply intertwined. * People will just consume, feel guilty, maybe take some individual…

The primary reason is that every organisation focuses on their own personal gains (mostly: power and influence).

Carbon taxes are stupid because it's just another metric that can and will simply be gamed by the industry without any net positive effect.

It would be sufficient to just price goods and services according to their environmental impact. Example: most Spanish vegetables and citrus fruit should be priced at least 3-4x higher. Why? Because environmental costs aren't priced into the products and current irrigation practices are unsustainable [0]:

> In any case, it is apparent that if the full cost recovery principle is applied to intensively used aquifers, many existing uses would not be economically viable.

This applies to most industries today. Crabs caught in the North Sea are shipped from Germany all the way to Morocco for shelling and then shipped back to Germany for sale. Same with fruit produced in Argentina that is shipped to Thailand for packaging and then back to continental US for sale. This wouldn't be economically viable if it wasn't for huge discrepancies in cost of labour combined with heavily subsidised fuel costs.

Take away subsidies, stop nationalising environmental costs (that's what a carbon tax is) and make manufacturers take responsibility for the entire product lifecycle.

The latter is especially important: you cannot just start pumping out millions of car batteries per year without a solid plan for reuse and recycling. Same goes for wind turbine blades, IoT devices, etc.

Want to sell millions of phones in my country? No problem, as long as you also provide a way to reuse and recycle them and make up for the environmental damage caused in the production process.

This alone could be sufficient to steer things into a more sustainable direction and away from self-destructive behaviour.

Taxation is not the way.

[0] https://easac.eu/fileadmin/PDF_s/reports_statements/Spain_Gr...

Re: US-Canada heatwave 'virtually impossible' without warming

#146
post #119

Are there any good models of how regional climate will look like in 10/20/30 years given the current rate of change? I suspect the housing market in most places hasn't baked that information in (with the exception of e.g. property on the coastline that will be under water in the near future)

> Are there any good models of how regional climate will look like in 10/20/30 years given the current rate of change?

No. The climate is a complex system. We can't predict what's going to happen two weeks from now, never mind decades in the future.

But that won't stop lots of people from telling you they can do it with their crappy, buggy, closed-source program that prints whatever they want.

Re: US-Canada heatwave 'virtually impossible' without warming

#147
post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What I don't understand is what people who argue against climate change stand to gain. The argument for climate change is: "humans are polluting the planet and it's causing a change in the environment and will have a disastrous effect on the climate." The arguments I hear against climate change always seem to concede that humans are polluting the planet, but argue in different ways (natural cycle/not really happening…

The strongest argument IMO is that the largest polluters are countries like China who will simply do nothing making our economic sacrifices nearly meaningless. Then the relative economic benefit of ignoring climate change will further pump up the economies of countries like China who will then pollute more and gain more power, etc. I don’t know what the solution is, if humans are even socially/politically capable of…

Per capita, China does way better than many other countries when it comes to carbon emissions. Yes, as a country, they're the largest contributor to global warming, but they also have the highest population in the world. Some countries like the United States release over twice as much CO2 per capita. As India gains a higher standard for its citizens, their emissions will quickly multiply the coming years from what is already a significant factor in worldwide emissions.

And to be fair, why would China or India care about becoming greener when the United States, with all of their wealth and power, can expel 16.1 tons per capita per year without repercussions while China gets told of for their 8.0 tons? Let alone India, with their meager 1.9 tons per capita; why people from these countries be expected to give up on the quality of life and luxuries when the Americans get off scot free?

The oil kingdoms won't be giving up their emissions any time soon, tiny, overpopulated islands won't either, but even large countries such as Australia, Canada and Estonia pump CO2 in the air at twice the rate of China.

Saying "China won't do it so what's the point" is just pandering to the polluting masses to pretend they can't do a thing to change the world. Telling people that it's okay to let the tyre fire burn itself out because there's a much bigger tyre fire four streets down is still a terrible idea.

People won't give up driving cars every day, they won't give up AC and they won't give up cheap plastic. The best we can do is probably what we're doing now, using "green" technologies to delay our inevitable demise by reducing the footprint.

Green alternatives that are cheaper or as cheap as traditional items won't be available because oil is dirt cheap and easy to produce, the infrastructure is already there and everything from gas to processed food depends on oil products.

Re: US-Canada heatwave 'virtually impossible' without warming

#148
post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I appreciate that. From the perspective of the skeptic the Popper quote comes to mind. Karl Popper — 'A theory that explains everything, explains nothing'

Why does that come to mind? The explanation provided does not explain everything even within the confines of climate science. When massive amounts of energy are added to a dynamical system there will be chaos before a new equilibrium is obtained. This is not controversial. It’s settled science. The heat dome in question is not just a bunch of new local high temps. That’s the wrong thing to look at. It’s a large high…

Perhaps it is a bit unfair to more nuanced proponents of climate apocalypse, but in popular discourse, every weather event is attributed to climate change. There is no observation of weather which cannot be construed as a result of anthropogenic climate change. If the conclusion opposes impending doom the popular refrain, "weather is not climate" is employed.

>massive amounts of energy are added...

Yes, but the claim (as presented in pop culture) rests upon the premise that the current climatic system is the standard which must be adhered to. The Earth's climate has varied throughout humanity's existence and before.

Additionally, human emitted CO2 is narrowly focused upon as the sole culprit. Other potential mechanisms are dismissed or downplayed.

Unsurprisingly, the conclusion is for more governance. Issuance of carbon-credits as a permission slip to consume energy. Whereas before the petrodollar has been backed by the US military.

Nonviolent Solutions like reforestation are downplayed. Instead forests are mismanaged and allowed to burn. Carbon could be captured as usable wood products. Not only are there problems with the observations and questions about the premises, but the conclusions are inconsistent as well.

"Settled science" was used to buttress cannabis prohibition. Today CBD is touted as a miracle cure. Pick any topic where large institutions fund research. You'll frequently (not always) find something rotten when results correlate with policy proposals.

Re: US-Canada heatwave 'virtually impossible' without warming

#149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What I don't understand is why people who argue against climate change stand to gain. I suspect it is something like psychological security (“I’ve only known a history of rapid progress and I’m not emotionally prepared to confront the possibility that life will be worse for my children and grandchildren, nor that I was complicit”). At least that’s the average joe climate denier. For the very wealthy it’s simple gre…

The wealthy will likely gain by climate change, already there is a wall of money looking to benefit from sustainable and transition finance. Not so well off people might - correctly - see that they will be disproportionately hit. So for them to push against policies (perceived or in reality) making them poorer is not totally insane.

Tax carbon, then pay out what is collected evenly among all tax payers. The poor would stand to gain financially in that arrangement.

Re: US-Canada heatwave 'virtually impossible' without warming

#150

I feel like I've gone through the five stages of grief with climate change, and I'm finally at acceptance. There are too many forces pushing it further than to prevent it, and governments won't come together to actually do something about it until it's too late. Everything that has a beginning has an end, and maybe this is ours. Over time the earth will heal without us, so instead of worrying about something out of o…

Once we're gone we'll be just another evolutionary dead end and join all the other extinct species while the earth continues happily orbiting the sun for another ~5 billion years...

One of my favorite George Carlin bits on this subject: https://youtu.be/BB0aFPXr4n4

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