US-Canada heatwave 'virtually impossible' without warming • Hacker News Board

Re: US-Canada heatwave 'virtually impossible' without warming

#101

Post by ericmay » Thu, Jul 08, 2021, 1:20 PM UTC

cmpb wrote: post #80

sgpl wrote: post #39

I've been cranking up my AC and adding ice to my water to combat the heat but I recently read an article about sea-life [0] boiling to death in their natural habitats (oceans, seas) which made me realize that animals in the wild increasingly don't have this option. It made me really sad to think about the fact that we'll probably see mass-extinction events (for animals, etc.) in the near future or at least within my…

One thing you can still do is plant native plants. Almost all urban areas are virtually devoid of biodiversity and are breeding grounds for many invasive species which then spread out into other areas and choke out biodiversity elsewhere. If we want to prevent extinction, that's at least one avenue (out of many, undoubtedly) that should be taken.

Yes. 100%. For us living in the suburbs, planting additional trees, native wildflowers, and other plants can have a cooling effect (trees) and hemp animals as well.

We should also seek to oppose new car-centric development that increasingly destroys what remaining natural habitats we have. Watching Canadian Geese (as mean as they are) get run over by cars in the parking lots of furniture stores selling cheap crap shipped over from other countries is so stupid and unnecessary. And we can prevent it too.

Re: US-Canada heatwave 'virtually impossible' without warming

#102

Post by quenix » Thu, Jul 08, 2021, 1:20 PM UTC

emerged wrote: post #54

necrotic_comp wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What I don't understand is what people who argue against climate change stand to gain. The argument for climate change is: "humans are polluting the planet and it's causing a change in the environment and will have a disastrous effect on the climate." The arguments I hear against climate change always seem to concede that humans are polluting the planet, but argue in different ways (natural cycle/not really happening…

The strongest argument IMO is that the largest polluters are countries like China who will simply do nothing making our economic sacrifices nearly meaningless. Then the relative economic benefit of ignoring climate change will further pump up the economies of countries like China who will then pollute more and gain more power, etc. I don’t know what the solution is, if humans are even socially/politically capable of…

Didn't China pledge to go fully carbon-neutral by 2050 or something?

Re: US-Canada heatwave 'virtually impossible' without warming

#103

Post by vsareto » Thu, Jul 08, 2021, 1:20 PM UTC

sgpl wrote: post #39

I've been cranking up my AC and adding ice to my water to combat the heat but I recently read an article about sea-life [0] boiling to death in their natural habitats (oceans, seas) which made me realize that animals in the wild increasingly don't have this option. It made me really sad to think about the fact that we'll probably see mass-extinction events (for animals, etc.) in the near future or at least within my…

>I've also been religiously recycling in my personal life but every now and then I read articles about even recycling from a lot of places ending up in landfills which really frustrates me as it takes away any agency I really have on this action.

Recycle if you want, but don't stress about it (especially religiously).

One, for the landfill reason you mentioned, and two, while it does feel good to 'do something about it', the scale of individuals recycling doesn't make up for massive companies generating waste without recycling. If you want the agency back, you'll likely have to get into politics, activism, and/or join those companies and change them from the inside (note: incredibly difficult side quest)

Re: US-Canada heatwave 'virtually impossible' without warming

#104

Post by UncleMeat » Thu, Jul 08, 2021, 1:20 PM UTC

aww_dang wrote: post #70

JulianMorrison wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is a causal arrow from climate to weather. It just isn't as crude as "warm planet equals warm weather". It would be closer to the truth to say "warm planet equals more unsettled weather, averaging warmer over the large scale, but including unseasonal cold as (for example) wind patterns distort".

I appreciate that. From the perspective of the skeptic the Popper quote comes to mind. Karl Popper — 'A theory that explains everything, explains nothing'

But it isn't a theory that explains everything. It isn't like this work is just a one sentence paper reading "climate change means more swingy weather, QED". There are cases of extreme weather where the methodology used in this sort of research does not implicate climate change.

Re: US-Canada heatwave 'virtually impossible' without warming

#105

Post by bavell » Thu, Jul 08, 2021, 1:20 PM UTC

nickd2001 wrote: post #31

jokoon wrote: post #23

I'm starting to think that governments and people will be unable to fight CO2 emissions for several reasons: * Reducing living standards is counter intuitive when consumerism is the norm, in France the Yellow Vests movement showed that it's very difficult to tax carbon if it punish poor people. Inequality and carbon emissions are deeply intertwined. * People will just consume, feel guilty, maybe take some individual…

For the reasons you state and more, I feel that developing a carbon capture technology that people have an incentive to install (e:g, end product from reacting something with CO2 is commercially useful in some way), is the best hope. People are just determined to maintain their lifestyles. Covid taught us how little quite a number of people are willing to moderate their daily life to save others' lives. So it seems t…

> I feel that developing a carbon capture technology that people have an incentive to install [...] is the best hope. People are just determined to maintain their lifestyles.

I agree, trying to force change on people which they think is against their own comforts, interests or beliefs is almost always a losing proposition. Providing incentives for desirable outcomes and letting people choose is much more effective in the long run and doesn't breed nearly as much resentment (they feel they retain their agency). Our best hope is a play into people's own selfish desires and channel that into a productive outlet (e.g. "install this CO2 scrubber on your roof and make passive income!")

Climate change is an issue that needs to be addressed immediately but unfortunately it's an uphill battle with human nature and the status quo of our culture/society working against us.

Re: US-Canada heatwave 'virtually impossible' without warming

#106

Post by orwin » Thu, Jul 08, 2021, 1:20 PM UTC

aww_dang wrote: post #70

JulianMorrison wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is a causal arrow from climate to weather. It just isn't as crude as "warm planet equals warm weather". It would be closer to the truth to say "warm planet equals more unsettled weather, averaging warmer over the large scale, but including unseasonal cold as (for example) wind patterns distort".

I appreciate that. From the perspective of the skeptic the Popper quote comes to mind. Karl Popper — 'A theory that explains everything, explains nothing'

Or you know, the refutability criterion.

The denialist theory is that CO2 have no impact on temperature.

So let's build two closed of greenhouses with the same sun exposition, fill one of them with old ambiant air with 450 ppm of CO2 and one with current/predicted ambiant air (750 ppm of CO2), same humidity (or rather, a bassin with the same quantity of water). After a day under the sun, check the temperature of both greenhouses (well, actually, the energy contain in the air of both greenhouses would be better). If one of them have more energy than the second, this "CO2 have no impact on the climate" theory should die and his proponents shut up.

Re: US-Canada heatwave 'virtually impossible' without warming

#107

Post by abtinf » Thu, Jul 08, 2021, 1:21 PM UTC

necrotic_comp wrote: post #11

chrisco255 wrote: post #4

Not only is it possible but the worst heat waves on record were experienced in the 1930s: https://www.weather.gov/arx/heat_jul36

What I don't understand is what people who argue against climate change stand to gain. The argument for climate change is: "humans are polluting the planet and it's causing a change in the environment and will have a disastrous effect on the climate." The arguments I hear against climate change always seem to concede that humans are polluting the planet, but argue in different ways (natural cycle/not really happening…

What if our best method of dealing with the consequences of climate change is further development? What if a clean environment is the product of industrialization?

The Moral Case for Fossil Fuels shows how to think about energy and how to choose the best energy source: https://www.amazon.com/Moral-Case-Fossil-Fuels/dp/1591847443

An interview with the author: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ip3XoAKRKHs

Re: US-Canada heatwave 'virtually impossible' without warming

#108

Post by rinze » Thu, Jul 08, 2021, 1:21 PM UTC

sandworm101 wrote: post #56

JulianMorrison wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It already is a mass extinction event, globally, by any historical standards. But yes, it could get worse.

>> But yes, it could get worse It will. It is.

And no one could have foreseen it.

Re: US-Canada heatwave 'virtually impossible' without warming

#109

Post by dleslie » Thu, Jul 08, 2021, 1:21 PM UTC

sgpl wrote: post #39

I've been cranking up my AC and adding ice to my water to combat the heat but I recently read an article about sea-life [0] boiling to death in their natural habitats (oceans, seas) which made me realize that animals in the wild increasingly don't have this option. It made me really sad to think about the fact that we'll probably see mass-extinction events (for animals, etc.) in the near future or at least within my…

I was on the beach just the other day and it was alarming to see a whole bed of tidal muscle shells wide open, and empty.

There were a lot of happy little crabs about.

Re: US-Canada heatwave 'virtually impossible' without warming

#110

Post by School-Cotton » Thu, Jul 08, 2021, 1:21 PM UTC

nradov wrote: post #77

jokoon wrote: post #23

I'm starting to think that governments and people will be unable to fight CO2 emissions for several reasons: * Reducing living standards is counter intuitive when consumerism is the norm, in France the Yellow Vests movement showed that it's very difficult to tax carbon if it punish poor people. Inequality and carbon emissions are deeply intertwined. * People will just consume, feel guilty, maybe take some individual…

Progressive elitists cruise overhead in private jets, then tell the common people to stop driving cars. Naturally that message doesn't go over well. A carbon emissions tax could be politically viable if it was coupled with an income tax reduction so as to be revenue neutral. That way most people wouldn't be worse off.

Most people would be worse off under such a scheme, because such a tax would be regressive, or at least less progressive than income tax.