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US-Canada heatwave 'virtually impossible' without warming

bbc.com

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Re: US-Canada heatwave 'virtually impossible' without warming

#91

Post by syops »

aww_dang wrote: post #70
JulianMorrison wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is a causal arrow from climate to weather. It just isn't as crude as "warm planet equals warm weather". It would be closer to the truth to say "warm planet equals more unsettled weather, averaging warmer over the large scale, but including unseasonal cold as (for example) wind patterns distort".

I appreciate that. From the perspective of the skeptic the Popper quote comes to mind. Karl Popper — 'A theory that explains everything, explains nothing'

Why does that come to mind? The explanation provided does not explain everything even within the confines of climate science. When massive amounts of energy are added to a dynamical system there will be chaos before a new equilibrium is obtained. This is not controversial. It’s settled science. The heat dome in question is not just a bunch of new local high temps. That’s the wrong thing to look at. It’s a large high pressure mass doing things that the equilibrium established before the industrial revolution largely prevented.

Re: US-Canada heatwave 'virtually impossible' without warming

#92

Post by OJFord »

necrotic_comp wrote: post #11
chrisco255 wrote: post #4

Not only is it possible but the worst heat waves on record were experienced in the 1930s: https://www.weather.gov/arx/heat_jul36

What I don't understand is what people who argue against climate change stand to gain. The argument for climate change is: "humans are polluting the planet and it's causing a change in the environment and will have a disastrous effect on the climate." The arguments I hear against climate change always seem to concede that humans are polluting the planet, but argue in different ways (natural cycle/not really happening…

Not making a sacrifice viewed as unnecessary, presumably? No mitigating action is free.

Even on the opposite side you have to decide where to draw your line, how much to spend on tackling it; how much is enough, how much is a waste that could be spent on something else.

Re: US-Canada heatwave 'virtually impossible' without warming

#93

Post by brandmeyer »

nradov wrote: post #77
jokoon wrote: post #23

I'm starting to think that governments and people will be unable to fight CO2 emissions for several reasons: * Reducing living standards is counter intuitive when consumerism is the norm, in France the Yellow Vests movement showed that it's very difficult to tax carbon if it punish poor people. Inequality and carbon emissions are deeply intertwined. * People will just consume, feel guilty, maybe take some individual…

Progressive elitists cruise overhead in private jets, then tell the common people to stop driving cars. Naturally that message doesn't go over well. A carbon emissions tax could be politically viable if it was coupled with an income tax reduction so as to be revenue neutral. That way most people wouldn't be worse off.

> A carbon emissions tax could be politically viable if it was coupled with an income tax reduction so as to be revenue neutral. That way most people wouldn't be worse off.

Even better: Couple the carbon tax to a flat tax credit which is revenue-neutral to the government. Such a tax would be naturally progressive. It also avoids a perverse incentive to keep polluting to maintain the tax base.

Re: US-Canada heatwave 'virtually impossible' without warming

#94

Post by refurb »

fabbari wrote: post #45
refurb wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Look at the temperature records in Canada. Of the 13 provinces and territories, 9 of the 13 records were set in the 1930's or earlier. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_extreme_temperatures_i...

Interestingly enough: the highest temperature recorded in the 1930's is 4.6C lower than the current record.

Yet routinely gets into the low 40C range every year.

Re: US-Canada heatwave 'virtually impossible' without warming

#95

Post by melling »

sgpl wrote: post #39

I've been cranking up my AC and adding ice to my water to combat the heat but I recently read an article about sea-life [0] boiling to death in their natural habitats (oceans, seas) which made me realize that animals in the wild increasingly don't have this option. It made me really sad to think about the fact that we'll probably see mass-extinction events (for animals, etc.) in the near future or at least within my…

I know. People have all kinds of silly ideas on how to slow climate change.

http://h4labs.org/ive-got-another-stupid-idea-to-deal-with-c...

I did try to convince people to use nuclear power for a couple decades. Now I’m told it’s too late.

The windmills and solar are still coming…

Re: US-Canada heatwave 'virtually impossible' without warming

#96

Post by ghastmaster »

> If humans hadn't influenced the climate to the extent that they have, the event would have been 150 times less likely

A change in odds by a multiple of 150 does not equal "virtually impossible". Imagine 1/1000 vs 1/150,000 odds for a multimillion jackpot. Our weather and climate system is unfathomably complex. The odds that a compter model is correct is "virtually impossible".

Re: US-Canada heatwave 'virtually impossible' without warming

#97

Post by bserge »

jokoon wrote: post #23

I'm starting to think that governments and people will be unable to fight CO2 emissions for several reasons: * Reducing living standards is counter intuitive when consumerism is the norm, in France the Yellow Vests movement showed that it's very difficult to tax carbon if it punish poor people. Inequality and carbon emissions are deeply intertwined. * People will just consume, feel guilty, maybe take some individual…

Meanwhile the EU exempted private jets (including the use for "leisure") from fuel tax, to be "phased in" later.

Yeah, OK, if they can fly private jets for leisure, why should I bother recycling a mountain of materials to offset that?

Honestly, the wealthy act with such impunity that it looks like some heads are going to roll when people realize the changes to climate and nature are here to stay.

Re: US-Canada heatwave 'virtually impossible' without warming

#98

Post by read_if_gay_ »

BobbyJo wrote: post #83
aww_dang wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On the other hand, proponents of climate apocalypse frequently make a distinction between weather and climate.

Let's say alcohol didn't exist. Then, one day it gets invented... Traffic deaths would rise because people would increasingly drive under the influence. In this situation you could say: "This crazy unusual number of traffic deaths near this bar is obviously the result of drunk driving." In this situation you could not say: "My town had the lowest number of traffic deaths ever recorded last year, so alcohol has not in…

Why? Both are just equating correlation with causation. Of course we know drunk driving increases deaths, but if that wasn’t obvious then you couldn’t say either of these statemens.

Re: US-Canada heatwave 'virtually impossible' without warming

#99

Post by iso1631 »

ipaddr wrote: post #24
jameshart wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The dust bowl heatwaves are not a good argument against the idea that human activity can have dramatic climate impacts in a short time, though.

I don't the parent is attacking global warming. The headline doesn't lineup with past temp records. Is there something in a dust bowl heatwave that could help explain why it is virtually impossible when it clearly isn't? When something like global warming become a religion any comment perceived as attacking itself no matter how innocent and truthful will bring out zealots looking to defend their faith. I think we sho…

The parent's link doesn't contradict the headline, indeed it backups up the headline shows that the coastal weather of BC is 10F higher than continental highs in the 30s

Portland reached 116F recently

https://www.oregonlive.com/weather/2021/06/portland-records-...

Here's Portland since 1938

https://projects.oregonlive.com/weather/temps/

This has Portland yearly records going back to 1875

https://www.currentresults.com/Yearly-Weather/USA/OR/Portlan...

There's no evidence to say that the 1930s were higher in the Pacific North West (which reached a high of 105 in 1935), or that it's ever been 110, let alone 115

Re: US-Canada heatwave 'virtually impossible' without warming

#100

Post by schnebbau »

I feel like I've gone through the five stages of grief with climate change, and I'm finally at acceptance.

There are too many forces pushing it further than to prevent it, and governments won't come together to actually do something about it until it's too late.

Everything that has a beginning has an end, and maybe this is ours. Over time the earth will heal without us, so instead of worrying about something out of our control (as individuals), how about we just live our short meaningless lives as comfortably as we can and do whatever we want until we die.

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