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Machine Learning Fairy Dust

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Re: Machine Learning Fairy Dust

#11

Post by hammock »

There are NO shortcuts. This is a fantastic article, and he lists a lot of good examples- machine learning, "social", crowdsourcing, AJAX, real-time.

I would add to that list "create a forum." Maybe that's part of "social." In marketing I hear it all the freaking time- you get a half-ass mediocre idea and it always includes some type of "forum" your customers will recruit themselves into somehow, and start to form a community. Most of these people have never been on a forum so I can't blame them for not knowing how it works, but it is a challenge.

Re: Machine Learning Fairy Dust

#12

Post by hooande »

wccrawford wrote: post #3

I think 'machine learning' is so complex that people just don't feel like trying to explain it. That, or their business secrets are tied up in it, and they don't want to give away the golden goose.

The problem with explaining machine learning is that it's not only complex, but it goes against the way that people normally think. Humans generally aren't built for making statistical calculations and going with highest probable outcomes. People are wired to understand narratives and compelling stories. To explain machine learning, you have to bridge a conceptual gap while also discussing a very technical idea.

Personally, I think that the benefits of a product should be so evident that people don't care if machine learning was used or not. The pitch shouldn't be "This aggregator is awesome because of machine learning", but "This aggregrator is awesome (oh and we used machine learning)"

Re: Machine Learning Fairy Dust

#13

Post by taliesinb »

dholowiski wrote: post #5
athst wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think his point is that it's just a tool that makes it a little easier for startups to incorporate machine learning into their products - like he said, it may be appropriate for some types of problems, but not all. But I'm sure we'll start to see more tools like that become more widely used. When AJAX first came out, not everyone knew how to do it - but now, everyone can drop in jQuery and do all sorts of complex t…

I guess that a good point. I wonder what kinds of bad implementations of the api we'll see. What a great revenue stream for google - what startup won't use the api in some way? I know i'm setting it up tonight and using it on at least one project.

Judging from their forum activity, they hardly have any usage.

Re: Machine Learning Fairy Dust

#14

Post by taliesinb »

arasraj wrote: post #8
the_cat_kittles wrote: post #7

Its fine if people want to say that ML will take care of the "details" ...let them try to use ML right and they will see you need to spend a long time understanding how to do things right. Most of the time, you can't use linear regressions right out of the box, let alone SVM's.

Agreed. The use of ML is highly dependent on the data. Having a something like the Prediction api is fine, but seems like the use-cases would be rigid.

Yup, and if commit to it and suddenly realize you need a little more flexibility than the API provides, you're probably in a worse position than if you rolled it yourself.

Real-world ML is so full of black magic and hackery that it's the LAST thing I'd try to sell as a web service.

Re: Machine Learning Fairy Dust

#15

Post by law »

What makes me really nervous is that we're nearing the point when Google's Prediction API and its knock-offs will increasingly pervade web sites much in the way that AJAX and other technologies have. While overuse of AJAX and the Facebook "Like" button is extremely annoying, it's still pretty harmless.

Machine learning, on the other hand, isn't innocuous. In order to use the Prediction API, you need a large corpus of data, which will just further incentivize web sites to ignore the privacy implications of their actions. Machine learning is far too abstract and too much of an "umbrella" term for it to be anything but careless to refer to it as some sort of panacea.

If you thought that Facebook's "Beacon" was a slap in the face to online privacy, just wait until you see what the feature holds. Once machine learning libraries with extremely robust, completely unsupervised classifiers become more abundant, we're going to see an exponential increase in the market for data. Banner advertisements will be replaced with much more terrifying 'targeted' ads, and we will enter into an age where we are judged not by the empirical evidence of our actions, but the inferences made from people who behave like us.

Re: Machine Learning Fairy Dust

#16

Post by the_cat_kittles »

law wrote: post #15

What makes me really nervous is that we're nearing the point when Google's Prediction API and its knock-offs will increasingly pervade web sites much in the way that AJAX and other technologies have. While overuse of AJAX and the Facebook "Like" button is extremely annoying, it's still pretty harmless. Machine learning, on the other hand, isn't innocuous. In order to use the Prediction API, you need a large corpus of…

If you act on the internet like you would in real life, it doesn't seem like such a big deal. How is getting relevant ads a bad thing?

Re: Machine Learning Fairy Dust

#17

Post by dougws »

dholowiski wrote: post #2

I was nodding my head u til I got to the end - it seems like the google prediction API _is_ the magic fairy dust we've been waiting for?

There have been readily available machine learning toolkits available for decades--if you want to use a SVM in your project, you just need to grab an implementation and get going. The trick, as others have described, is getting your data into a usable format, choosing features, and experimenting to find the method that gives the best results. As far as I can tell, the Prediction API doesn't do much to make any of that easier.

Re: Machine Learning Fairy Dust

#18

Post by Estragon »

law wrote: post #15

What makes me really nervous is that we're nearing the point when Google's Prediction API and its knock-offs will increasingly pervade web sites much in the way that AJAX and other technologies have. While overuse of AJAX and the Facebook "Like" button is extremely annoying, it's still pretty harmless. Machine learning, on the other hand, isn't innocuous. In order to use the Prediction API, you need a large corpus of…

Do you really think such a turnkey ML service is possible, though?

Re: Machine Learning Fairy Dust

#19

Post by law »

the_cat_kittles wrote: post #16
law wrote: post #15

What makes me really nervous is that we're nearing the point when Google's Prediction API and its knock-offs will increasingly pervade web sites much in the way that AJAX and other technologies have. While overuse of AJAX and the Facebook "Like" button is extremely annoying, it's still pretty harmless. Machine learning, on the other hand, isn't innocuous. In order to use the Prediction API, you need a large corpus of…

If you act on the internet like you would in real life, it doesn't seem like such a big deal. How is getting relevant ads a bad thing?

Because in real life, there are plenty of laws that prevent invasions into privacy. Also, the people capable of doing the same in real life don't have the tools to create truly personal advertisements.

For example, a supermarket chain might use an aggregate of purchase histories (i.e., products most often purchased together) to influence product placement in the store. They won't re-position products for each customer as they walk in the door, though... Online, this can, and does, happen.

It might not seem like a big deal when it's useful. However, there will be many instances of people trying, and failing, at creating a useful product. I think that's a valid point of distinction: when people fail at adopting new technologies right now, the results are mostly harmless. If they fail with machine learning, there could be some major privacy concerns.

Re: Machine Learning Fairy Dust

#20

Post by law »

Estragon wrote: post #18
law wrote: post #15

What makes me really nervous is that we're nearing the point when Google's Prediction API and its knock-offs will increasingly pervade web sites much in the way that AJAX and other technologies have. While overuse of AJAX and the Facebook "Like" button is extremely annoying, it's still pretty harmless. Machine learning, on the other hand, isn't innocuous. In order to use the Prediction API, you need a large corpus of…

Do you really think such a turnkey ML service is possible, though?

Absolutely, especially if it integrates with already-existing applications. For example, I think there's room for a turn-key "plug-in" to phpBB that offers thread-specific advertisements. Same thing with wordpress.
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