Is it a tech boom or a bubble?

#1

Post by abalog » Mon, Jul 18, 2011, 2:13 PM UTC

Is it a tech boom or a bubble?
gigaom.com

Re: Is it a tech boom or a bubble?

#2

Post by jinushaun » Mon, Jul 18, 2011, 2:35 PM UTC

Boom since the 1970s. Bubble since 2009. They don't have to be mutually exclusive.

Re: Is it a tech boom or a bubble?

#3

Post by dstein » Mon, Jul 18, 2011, 2:39 PM UTC

The bubble is clearly in social networking marketing rather than actual technology. The value that VC's are putting on unmonetizable audiences is completely absurd.

However the story is different for legitmate tech companies. There is a genuine boom occuring in the mobile/cloud technology space. It is a paradigm shift on a scale probably 100 times larger than the shift to personal computers.

Re: Is it a tech boom or a bubble?

#4

Post by zinssmeister » Mon, Jul 18, 2011, 2:53 PM UTC

if we look at the sheer number of internet users and the over all demand for web driven devices and solutions it's clearly not a bubble.

Re: Is it a tech boom or a bubble?

#5

Post by wccrawford » Mon, Jul 18, 2011, 2:54 PM UTC

Bubble. Things are a little over-the-top right now. Demand for programmers is outstripping the supply by quite a bit. (Not that I'm complaining... Right now.) Things are over-valued.

However, I don't think the bubble is so big yet that bursting it would cause devastation. Just a lot of pain and tears.

Re: Is it a tech boom or a bubble?

#6

Post by [deleted] » Mon, Jul 18, 2011, 2:56 PM UTC

[deleted]

Re: Is it a tech boom or a bubble?

#7

Post by pagekalisedown » Mon, Jul 18, 2011, 3:08 PM UTC

wccrawford wrote: post #5

Bubble. Things are a little over-the-top right now. Demand for programmers is outstripping the supply by quite a bit. (Not that I'm complaining... Right now.) Things are over-valued. However, I don't think the bubble is so big yet that bursting it would cause devastation. Just a lot of pain and tears.

If that's the case, then why haven't salaries increased proportionally?

Re: Is it a tech boom or a bubble?

#8

Post by thomas » Mon, Jul 18, 2011, 3:12 PM UTC

Let's keep asking this same question and maybe someone will come up with a good answer.

Re: Is it a tech boom or a bubble?

#9

Post by wccrawford » Mon, Jul 18, 2011, 4:16 PM UTC

pagekalisedown wrote: post #7

wccrawford wrote: post #5

Bubble. Things are a little over-the-top right now. Demand for programmers is outstripping the supply by quite a bit. (Not that I'm complaining... Right now.) Things are over-valued. However, I don't think the bubble is so big yet that bursting it would cause devastation. Just a lot of pain and tears.

If that's the case, then why haven't salaries increased proportionally?

Actually, in my area, they have. The job postings lately are as much as 50% higher than a few years ago, for basically the same job.

In fact, I left my last job because they weren't paying me what I felt I was worth. I signed on with a new company for a huge raise, among other things. The old company is now trying to hire 6 people at what I now make. And as far as I know, they're failing to get them. I know my current company has failed to find anyone at a slightly lower salary than mine.

Companies are extremely resistant to changes in salaries. It takes a pressing need to get them to bump the salary up for a position. That's partly because it throws their budget off, but also because that means their existing employees are being underpaid, and they risk losing them as well, should they find out... Unless they also bump their pay up, destroying the aforementioned budget again.

Re: Is it a tech boom or a bubble?

#10

Post by Turing_Machine » Mon, Jul 18, 2011, 5:16 PM UTC

dstein wrote: post #3

The bubble is clearly in social networking marketing rather than actual technology. The value that VC's are putting on unmonetizable audiences is completely absurd. However the story is different for legitmate tech companies. There is a genuine boom occuring in the mobile/cloud technology space. It is a paradigm shift on a scale probably 100 times larger than the shift to personal computers.

I agree with respect to mobile -- the depth of the potential customer base there hasn't even begun to be plumbed. It's going to be very interesting once smart phones (and app sales) become ubiquitous in less-developed countries. That will probably require lowering the price even further, but hey, if you can sell 100 million copies of a ten cent app...