The Case Against the Covid-19 Lab Leak Theory • Hacker News Board

Re: The Case Against the Covid-19 Lab Leak Theory

#71

Post by zamalek » Tue, Jul 06, 2021, 1:09 PM UTC

drclau wrote: post #43

Synaesthesia wrote: post #30

As far as I'm concerned it's largely irrelevant, because the real question is how the governments all handled the Covid crisis, once it was out in the open.

I wouldn't go as far as to say it's completely irrelevant. If it was a leak, we will want guarantees that another leak is not possible (ie. better safety, or downright stop dangerous research, such as gain of function). It's all about reducing risks.

So: assume that a leak can happen all the time, find out how, and fix it. Red team/blue team your virus lab. This blamelaying is complete nonsense, and is a huge waste of funds across multiple regions.

Re: The Case Against the Covid-19 Lab Leak Theory

#72

Post by voxic11 » Tue, Jul 06, 2021, 1:21 PM UTC

danparsonson wrote: post #40

stavros wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The first SARS and avian flu and swine flu, and CJD and mad cow disease were just more warnings that humans were continuing to play russian roulette with the way they were living with an using animals. How do we live with and use bats that makes viruses crossing over more likely, though?

By increasingly moving into their territory and disturbing populations of animals with which we were hitherto not in contact.

Wuhan is a very old city. Settled in 1500 BC.

Re: The Case Against the Covid-19 Lab Leak Theory

#73

Post by JohnTHaller » Tue, Jul 06, 2021, 1:27 PM UTC

0-_-0 wrote: post #66

bellyfullofbac wrote: post #62

Huh, the second sentence of the article made me doubt how good it is... > Last spring, the media accurately reported the scientific consensus that Covid (also known as SARS CoV-2) is a natural virus [...] To be pedantic: No, lady, Covid is the disease, and the virus is SARS-CoV-2. Like AIDS and HIV (disease and virus respectively). It's a little thing, but accuracy in journalism is still important (or is it just me?)…

Additionally: 1. There wasn't a consensus, some scientists disagreed 2. A natural virus can leak from a lab Also, a reminder that biosecurity incidents are common, there were about 17 in the last decade [0]. Just (natural) SARS-CoV-1 leaked from the lab 4 times [1]. [0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_laboratory_biosecurity... [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndr...

> 1. There wasn't a consensus, some scientists disagreed

Consensus means "general agreement", it doesn't mean unanimous.

https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/consensus

Re: The Case Against the Covid-19 Lab Leak Theory

#74

Post by dTal » Tue, Jul 06, 2021, 1:28 PM UTC

simonh wrote: post #44

GekkePrutser wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For the current pandemic yes, but we could start banning all gain of function research to make another one less likely. And increase lab safety measures.

That's not necessarily the best response even in that case. We know for a fact that animal to human transmission happens, and that it will happen again. I don't know the ins and outs but it's possible that gain of function research could be crucial in preventing or fighting future natural outbreaks. That's a judgement that we should consider carefully. If you're fighting a shooting war and you have an explosion in a…

Except the gain-of-function research specifically targeting covid-like viruses did not help us prepare or respond to the current pandemic one bit. On that basis alone we should suspend this research. It's not worth the risk.

Re: The Case Against the Covid-19 Lab Leak Theory

#75

Post by whatthesmack » Tue, Jul 06, 2021, 1:43 PM UTC

JohnTHaller wrote: post #73

0-_-0 wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Additionally: 1. There wasn't a consensus, some scientists disagreed 2. A natural virus can leak from a lab Also, a reminder that biosecurity incidents are common, there were about 17 in the last decade [0]. Just (natural) SARS-CoV-1 leaked from the lab 4 times [1]. [0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_laboratory_biosecurity... [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndr...

> 1. There wasn't a consensus, some scientists disagreed Consensus means "general agreement", it doesn't mean unanimous. https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/consensus

There wasn't general agreement either. There was a propaganda piece architected by Peter Daszak (Leader of EcoHealth Alliance, who Fauci's NIAID contracted with for gain-of-function research at WIV after Obama banned it), signed by a few scientists, and The Lancet published. The "general agreement" many folks may be thinking of is the general agreement amongst mainstream and social media that a lab leak shouldn't even be investigated and anybody that suggested doing so was a maniac.

Re: The Case Against the Covid-19 Lab Leak Theory

#76

Post by dv_dt » Tue, Jul 06, 2021, 1:50 PM UTC

forcry wrote: post #70

simonh wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's not necessarily the best response even in that case. We know for a fact that animal to human transmission happens, and that it will happen again. I don't know the ins and outs but it's possible that gain of function research could be crucial in preventing or fighting future natural outbreaks. That's a judgement that we should consider carefully. If you're fighting a shooting war and you have an explosion in a…

>If you're fighting a shooting war and you have an explosion in a munitions factory, you don't necessarily decide to stop making munitions What an apt analogy!

Except that munitions don’t self replicate. It’s more like deciding to do munitions research specifically in enemy territory where the research could be taken an used against you on any security breach.

Re: The Case Against the Covid-19 Lab Leak Theory

#77

Post by accurrent » Tue, Jul 06, 2021, 1:56 PM UTC

pmoriarty wrote: post #12

"Ever since the SARS outbreak of 2002-03, after all, paper after paper and countless popular pieces have warned that, sooner or later, nature would produce the next big SARS." In 1995 Laurie Garrett warned about how the world could be brought to its knees by another airborne flu-like illness in "The Coming Plague" .[1] The first SARS and avian flu and swine flu, and CJD and mad cow disease were just more warnings tha…

Governments really need to start getting their shit together and stop blaming each other for their own mishandling (this will never happen I know). There is no point in trying to blame each other or cook up new regulations (enforcing regulation, particularly international regulation is just never going to happen). Quite frankly,most governments should seriously start considering how they will defend their citizens against biological threats. This means governments should do the following:

1. Build vaccine manufacturing capabilities. These are as important as other aspects of physical armed force defense. Every country should try to have their own facility given how vaccine supplies are being weaponised by certain powers.

2. Build up hospital capacity and make healthcare affordable. Train more doctors and nurses. In particular nurses are very important and generally require less training, so I would focus on building up a reserve of nurses. Pandemics will only get worse with our aging population. Our beds:human ratio is terrible even in the most advanced countries.

3. Invest in R&D towards breakthrough technologies in testing. There are currently tests like Breathonix's breathe based test that can detect a covid infection in 2 minutes with pretty decent sensitivity.

4. Build a medical reserves corps. This would be a group of citizens who voluntarily are trained in basic first aid.

5. Build more oxygen plants/equip hospitals and ambulances with oxygen concentrators.

6. Conduct drills like the Army does that simulate such an emergency. Practice emergency buying. Keep your medical corps on their toes.

7. Make sure every god damn citizen has a bank account so you can transfer emergency funds into the account in the event of a major economic disruption.

8. Estimate the financial impact and provide backup options for people who work in the service industry. If you were an air hostess for instance, you would have some basic training in medical emergency handling. In the event of a pandemic, your income source will be hurt. However, the government would definitely be scrambling for nurses and contact tracers. These are jobs that could be taken up temporarily during the duration of the pandemic.

9. Work on technolgies and training for deployment of field hospitals.

None of these actions should change irregardless of whether the vaccine is a lab leak or not a lab leak.

Re: The Case Against the Covid-19 Lab Leak Theory

#78

Post by morpheos137 » Tue, Jul 06, 2021, 2:01 PM UTC

accurrent wrote: post #77

pmoriarty wrote: post #12

"Ever since the SARS outbreak of 2002-03, after all, paper after paper and countless popular pieces have warned that, sooner or later, nature would produce the next big SARS." In 1995 Laurie Garrett warned about how the world could be brought to its knees by another airborne flu-like illness in "The Coming Plague" .[1] The first SARS and avian flu and swine flu, and CJD and mad cow disease were just more warnings tha…

Governments really need to start getting their shit together and stop blaming each other for their own mishandling (this will never happen I know). There is no point in trying to blame each other or cook up new regulations (enforcing regulation, particularly international regulation is just never going to happen). Quite frankly,most governments should seriously start considering how they will defend their citizens ag…

The biggest thing that made the pandemic so bad outside of china was large fractions of the population not taking it seriously. That said this pandemic was objectively not that bad by historical standards.

Re: The Case Against the Covid-19 Lab Leak Theory

#79

Post by morpheos137 » Tue, Jul 06, 2021, 2:15 PM UTC

goldenkey wrote: post #32

emilgouliev wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“When HIV/AIDS emerged in the 1980s, it was alleged, with a little Soviet help, that the virus had been developed in an American lab. Between Washington’s inaction on the epidemic and its sordid past of shady experiments, proponents said the theory couldn’t be dismissed out of hand. After many early cases of tick-borne Lyme disease were first identified around Long Island Sound, it was deemed too much of a coincidenc…

You want to use a razor to shave a bear. Simplicity is not enough to favor a belief model. Machine Learning has shown us that large complex models can perform much better at providing the ground truths. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philosophical_razor Razor's aren't scientifically rigorous theorems. Feel free to use them but don't argue by them in a public forum, it's disingenuous to truth.

Pretty good point. People resort to occams razor as if it is a fundamental constant of nature valid in all cases. Occams razor has heuristic value not probitive value.

Re: The Case Against the Covid-19 Lab Leak Theory

#80

Post by pessimizer » Tue, Jul 06, 2021, 2:15 PM UTC

stavros wrote: post #35

pmoriarty wrote: post #12

"Ever since the SARS outbreak of 2002-03, after all, paper after paper and countless popular pieces have warned that, sooner or later, nature would produce the next big SARS." In 1995 Laurie Garrett warned about how the world could be brought to its knees by another airborne flu-like illness in "The Coming Plague" .[1] The first SARS and avian flu and swine flu, and CJD and mad cow disease were just more warnings tha…

> The first SARS and avian flu and swine flu, and CJD and mad cow disease were just more warnings that humans were continuing to play russian roulette with the way they were living with an using animals. How do we live with and use bats that makes viruses crossing over more likely, though?

It might have been bats this time, next time it might be chickens.