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Canada battles more than 180 wildfires with hundreds dead in heat wave

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Re: Canada battles more than 180 wildfires with hundreds dead in heat wave

#141

Post by ipaddr »

throwaway210222 wrote: post #130
mercy_dude wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> China does have climate policy and it’s and issue that they do not ignore. They plant trees at the interface of deserts to prevent their expansion, they produce 80% of the worlds solar panels. China is the world's leading country in electricity production from renewable energy sources, with over double the generation of the second-ranking country, the United States. Sounds like you are avoiding the core question su…

> China and India are among one of the biggest contributors to greenhouse gas. There is no policy that can change that fact. Fine, I'll bite. Presume for a second that the partitioning of India didn't end with Pakistan and Bangladesh, but that the entire sub-continent split into 15 odd countries each with the population of Mexico. Would you still be demanding that just these 15 countries carry the disproportionate bu…

China produces much for the world. Offshoring production to them has put them in a unique position where they produce much of the world's greenhouse gases.

Population size doesn't matter.

China produces 5 times more than India. More than double the US at similiar economic levels.

China is the problem. China is the solution.

China produces more greenhouse gases than all developed nations combined.

Re: Canada battles more than 180 wildfires with hundreds dead in heat wave

#142

Post by ipaddr »

elric wrote: post #128
mercy_dude wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> China does have climate policy and it’s and issue that they do not ignore. They plant trees at the interface of deserts to prevent their expansion, they produce 80% of the worlds solar panels. China is the world's leading country in electricity production from renewable energy sources, with over double the generation of the second-ranking country, the United States. Sounds like you are avoiding the core question su…

What policy are you suggesting? Are you implying that the Chinese (and Indians) are somehow less deserving of living their lives out of poverty and in relative comfort? Because that's what this is ultimately about. These are both countries with huge populations. Populations who until recently were extremely poor. They are becoming less so, sometimes at speeds that are hard to fathom. Do you want to be the person to t…

Why is China producing 5 times more greenhouse gas than India at similiar populations?

Re: Canada battles more than 180 wildfires with hundreds dead in heat wave

#143

Post by ipaddr »

brandon272 wrote: post #98
fatsdomino001 wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

yes we can. We live in a more northern environment, necessitating high CO2 emissions. Maybe not three times, but factor in the fact that Canadians are so distantly spread out adds more weight to the necessity of Canadians having higher CO2 emissions per-capita than China. It's not apples to apples comparison.

Why is it China's problem that Canadians choose to live in a northern climate in a "distantly spread out" fashion? They could just as easily argue that their higher absolute CO2 emissions is "necessary" given their higher population. Every country can come up with a list of excuses as to why they should be entitled to produce CO2. At the end of the day we need to start with taking responsibility for our own emissions…

Canada could blow up or start producing 10 times per person it wouldn't matter. Look at the global numbers. China is the world's problem if you believe in climate change.

https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/920/idt2/idt2/9cc12cf8-9b60-4f...

Re: Canada battles more than 180 wildfires with hundreds dead in heat wave

#144

Post by rglover »

Retric wrote: post #139
rglover wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Suddenly, no. But they're not signaling intent to stop building them, either. If they're actively building now and saying they're going to build more, the logical conclusion is that they're going to build more over time. And you're misdirecting. The U.S. doesn't get a pass. We're arguably one of the biggest targets that everyone points their fingers at (and domestically, shames its own population for relying on those…

The efficiency of solar panels is practically irrelevant. For scale for ~20,000$ of land in Arizona (60 acres) is getting ~240,000 kw of energy in full sun. At 2c/kWh and 10% efficiency you pay for that land in ~42 hours of full sun. Land costs are rarely more than 0.1% of total costs. Anyway, nobody is going to run a major grid on 100% solar power because hydro and wind are cheaper than batteries. But let’s think pe…

That's wildly inefficient at scale (and that's if it can be done reliably). Check my numbers here—should be correct but I'd appreciate pushback—estimating 50% of annual U.S. usage in panels vs nuclear plants: https://imgur.com/a/zeHo21R.

Even if we want 50% of our power nationwide to come from solar power, based on your 60 acre model that's still 6,429 of these installations or 385,753 acres (and that's with a generous output estimate of 2.5kWh per panel, per day).

A single 582 megawatt nuclear plant can generate 13,968,000 kWh per day and each one takes up a mile (640 acres).

Not to mention, 60 acres of panels takes a ton of manpower to maintain and keep functional. People, trucks, maintenance equipment, etc.

Keep in mind, too, these numbers are before we introduce everyone driving electric cars (assuming that's an ideal).

Re: Canada battles more than 180 wildfires with hundreds dead in heat wave

#145

Post by Retric »

rglover wrote: post #144
Retric wrote: post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The efficiency of solar panels is practically irrelevant. For scale for ~20,000$ of land in Arizona (60 acres) is getting ~240,000 kw of energy in full sun. At 2c/kWh and 10% efficiency you pay for that land in ~42 hours of full sun. Land costs are rarely more than 0.1% of total costs. Anyway, nobody is going to run a major grid on 100% solar power because hydro and wind are cheaper than batteries. But let’s think pe…

That's wildly inefficient at scale (and that's if it can be done reliably). Check my numbers here—should be correct but I'd appreciate pushback—estimating 50% of annual U.S. usage in panels vs nuclear plants: https://imgur.com/a/zeHo21R . Even if we want 50% of our power nationwide to come from solar power, based on your 60 acre model that's still 6,429 of these installations or 385,753 acres (and that's with a gener…

First 385,753 acres is trivial in the US. The federal government for example manages 640,000,000 acres in the US, it’s a big freaking country. We where doing above ground nuclear testing because we just had that much unused space.

As to output per day real world capacity factors for grid solar vary by location but tend to ~30% here’s a 29.7%. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Signal_Solar So if a 400W panel averages ~2.9kWh per day 2.5kWh is perfectly reasonable ballpark estimate. Panel density varies but over 2000 per acre isn’t unreasonable as they are tilted. Still let’s use 2,000 or account for access roads etc.

As to nuclear it’s capacity factor in the us ~90% because it doesn’t need to follow the grid. Unfortunately that drops if you want to increase the number of nuclear power plants. France leaned into nuclear, but even exporting a lot of subsidized nuclear still they had capacity factors of ~70%.

By comparison at 2.9kWh per day panel * 2000 * 640 = 3,712,000 kWh per day from solar. Sure it’s less dense but not enough to be particularly meaningful especially as you don’t need access to water. The real difference people care about is it’s vastly cheaper and can actually scale. Try and hit 100% with nuclear and your stuck with sub 50% capacity factors or your need a lot of grid storage both of which dramatically increases the price. To actually be competitive long term, nuclear needs about an 60-80% cost reduction which is frankly never going to happen.

As to EV’s you need more space to park them than to install solar panels to power them. You also need more batteries for EV themselves than you need to backup a solar powered electric grid.

Re: Canada battles more than 180 wildfires with hundreds dead in heat wave

#146

Post by brandon272 »

ipaddr wrote: post #143
brandon272 wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why is it China's problem that Canadians choose to live in a northern climate in a "distantly spread out" fashion? They could just as easily argue that their higher absolute CO2 emissions is "necessary" given their higher population. Every country can come up with a list of excuses as to why they should be entitled to produce CO2. At the end of the day we need to start with taking responsibility for our own emissions…

Canada could blow up or start producing 10 times per person it wouldn't matter. Look at the global numbers. China is the world's problem if you believe in climate change. https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/920/idt2/idt2/9cc12cf8-9b60-4f...

If Canada started producing 10x per person it would be the worlds second largest emitter. So yeah, it would matter.

Pretending this is exclusively China’s problem when the rest of the world produces 3/4 of global emissions and a significant percentage of China’s emissions are a result of demand from the West, is simply nonsensical.

We will not get out of this by focusing on spinning stats or trying to focus attention on per capita vs. absolute figures. This problem requires collective action.

Re: Canada battles more than 180 wildfires with hundreds dead in heat wave

#147

Post by gilbetron »

newleaf wrote: post #83

As an insurance policy, where would be the best places to live or buy land now given forecasted trends? I’m primarily thinking of the US, but interested any idea (well, maybe not Siberia…)

Upper Peninsula of Michigan for a long term bet: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/heres-the-best-place-to...

Michigan in general is solid because of the great lakes.

Re: Canada battles more than 180 wildfires with hundreds dead in heat wave

#148

Post by fatsdomino001 »

brandon272 wrote: post #146
ipaddr wrote: post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Canada could blow up or start producing 10 times per person it wouldn't matter. Look at the global numbers. China is the world's problem if you believe in climate change. https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/920/idt2/idt2/9cc12cf8-9b60-4f...

If Canada started producing 10x per person it would be the worlds second largest emitter. So yeah, it would matter. Pretending this is exclusively China’s problem when the rest of the world produces 3/4 of global emissions and a significant percentage of China’s emissions are a result of demand from the West, is simply nonsensical. We will not get out of this by focusing on spinning stats or trying to focus attention…

50 cent army is quick and effective.

Re: Canada battles more than 180 wildfires with hundreds dead in heat wave

#149

Post by throwaway210222 »

ipaddr wrote: post #141
throwaway210222 wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> China and India are among one of the biggest contributors to greenhouse gas. There is no policy that can change that fact. Fine, I'll bite. Presume for a second that the partitioning of India didn't end with Pakistan and Bangladesh, but that the entire sub-continent split into 15 odd countries each with the population of Mexico. Would you still be demanding that just these 15 countries carry the disproportionate bu…

China produces much for the world. Offshoring production to them has put them in a unique position where they produce much of the world's greenhouse gases. Population size doesn't matter. China produces 5 times more than India. More than double the US at similiar economic levels. China is the problem. China is the solution. China produces more greenhouse gases than all developed nations combined.

> China is the problem. China is the solution.

Then I assume the west will ensure China has access to any and all technology that they decide they need, when they need it, how they need it, to reduce their carbon footprint.

Because that is what it is going to take.

Re: Canada battles more than 180 wildfires with hundreds dead in heat wave

#150

Post by xroche »

elric wrote: post #127
xroche wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is even more hilarious: Germany oppose nuclear, which is the greenest energy source in terme of emissions, but managed to get funding to use "green" gas: https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_21_...

This issue is a tad more complex than the silly tropes of "greens oppose nuclear" and "greens claim gas is green". That's not quite what this is about. Nuclear is very slow to (up|down)cycle. It's very good at putting out a constant rate of power. Pretty cheap power, once it's operational and when conviently ignoring all externalities. However, having boatloads of cheap nuclear on the grid, means that there isn't muc…

So the idea is that:

(1) Nuclear is cheap and makes renewable like solar and wind useless

(2) Solar and wind require fossile fuels

My take is that intermittent renewable are a scam and will never help us fighting climate change. More of them is actually bad.

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