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Canada battles more than 180 wildfires with hundreds dead in heat wave

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Re: Canada battles more than 180 wildfires with hundreds dead in heat wave

#61
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is an inconvenient truth we all avoid when we throw out climate change. There is nothing you can do to stop climate change. If you stopped all Canadians from producing any greenhouse gases the wildfires will continue and no one will have noticed. When two countries are producing the vast majority you are at their mercy. If Canada wants to bully, bribe or shame a country into submission it has to get bigger and…

Consumers in the west are (obviously) responsible for a lot of the emissions that take place in China too. And regardless - for the sake of solidarity with the developing world I think it must be considered fair that us westerners take a bigger responsibility than developing countries. There are two arguments here that are both equally valid: 1) This just won't work unless everyone is on the same page, including Chin…

but you are arguing a talking point from a decade ago -- China is definitely taking actions to diversify its power generation with solar production, convert existing systems to electrical inputs, use higher-efficiency parts like LED lighting, and other important steps. They are competing directly in science with the West in publications and PR and business cases.

This re-hash amongst Western chatty people is well-intentioned perhaps, but the targets really are moving as this debate has not.

action on the ground using the above mentioned fact-based changes is called for now, right?

Re: Canada battles more than 180 wildfires with hundreds dead in heat wave

#62
post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A big part of the problem are the green parties themselves. They were in many cases started as a youth movement against nuclear power in the 60s. The basis of these green parties consists of people who are ideologically opposed to nuclear energy and their youth rebellion against it is now part of their identity. This is why the leadership of green parties cannot support nuclear energy even though opposing it is compl…

European nuclear advocates really don’t have a satisfactory political response to Chernobyl and Fukushima. Truthfully, the best argument for nuclear power is an extremely unpleasant one: a bit of radioactive contamination (an immediate and visceral threat) is a small price to pay for the emissions offset (still a somewhat abstract and distant threat). The numbers check out but it is undeniably ghoulish. But pretendin…

Calling my explanation condescending seems exaggerated. The opposition against nuclear energy makes sense if Chernobyl is your reference in terms of safety. But modern reactor designs are a lot safer than Chernobyl and Fukushima. That's why I'm calling it nonsensical - the skepticism was warranted at the time but it's outdated now.

Re: Canada battles more than 180 wildfires with hundreds dead in heat wave

#63
post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is even more hilarious: Germany oppose nuclear, which is the greenest energy source in terme of emissions, but managed to get funding to use "green" gas: https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_21_...

that is comical - funny to see how climate change doesn't really drive direct action even with environmentalists - looking into this they appear to be against nuclear while claiming carbon emissions are biggest issue?

That's about the shape of it, yes.

They grew out of movements opposing nuclear power in the 60s, for various reasons (some of the weapons proliferation concerns were valid enough then, though a detailed understanding of fuel cycles and what does/doesn't generate usable weapons material seldom factors into the objections).

As the concerns shifted, the environmental groups seem to have simply added on various new concerns without re-evaluating old points. So you end up with a lot of the groups now being in a weird state where they're against nuclear, opposed to carbon emissions, and don't actually seem to care much about the actual environment beyond "We have to find a way to keep industrial civilization powered without carbon, and without nuclear." Blowing off mountain tops to extract materials to do this doesn't seem to be a huge concern anymore, and that certainly seems it should fall somewhere under the banner of "environmentalism" - but you mostly hear crickets these days.

If you're looking for something resembling a self consistent environmental group, you can read some of the stuff by the Deep Green Resistance people - their latest, Bright Green Lies, is a decent enough read on their position. That position, simply, is that industrial civilization is incompatible with the planet, and they do a decent job of arguing their position, which is that it doesn't matter how you power an industrial civilization, it does massive and irreparable damage to the planet as a result of the focus on energy and exponential growth. They look at the resource requirements to implement some of the forecast green futures ("We need 3M windmills? Ok, what does that look like in terms of steel, copper, rare earths, and how does that compare with the global production during the timeframe required to build them?") and come to some depressing conclusions. But even if you disagree with them, they show their work decently enough throughout and it's an interesting set of problems to think through.

But in general, you'll find an awful lot of "Climate change is a huge problem; someone else really ought to do something about it!" style thinking in the environmental groups, and I'm pretty comfortable saying that if the last decade hasn't done much useful on this front, continuing the same thing for years to come will accomplish roughly the same "almost nothing."

I'm also not at all sold with the "You can buy your way to green!" solutions that are peddled constantly by those who are interested in ensuring that, no matter what happens, the core of the modern consumerist economy won't be bothered. I'll gesture in the direction of the standard "worried about the climate" somewhat senior tech worker who has a million dollar home, a six figure car, absurdly expensive solar that offsets at least a bit of their power use on their roof, and who feels that they've consumed their way to green, without having really considered any of the resources that actually go into the vehicle, or lower energy/material alternatives to meet their needs. You can directly reduce emissions by simply using less, but this isn't really discussed these days.

I don't see a good path out, sadly. It's very possible we've accelerated growth in a direction that is simply a dead end canyon with no valid paths out that maintain a lot of what we've developed.

Re: Canada battles more than 180 wildfires with hundreds dead in heat wave

#64
post #3

And yet we'll continue to treat climate change as an inconvenience that can be addressed in 20 years, when - to quote Alex Steffen - we're not yet ready for what's already happened. https://alexsteffen.substack.com/p/were-not-yet-ready-for-wh...

What does climate change have to do with wild fires?

Re: Canada battles more than 180 wildfires with hundreds dead in heat wave

#65
post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A big part of the problem are the green parties themselves. They were in many cases started as a youth movement against nuclear power in the 60s. The basis of these green parties consists of people who are ideologically opposed to nuclear energy and their youth rebellion against it is now part of their identity. This is why the leadership of green parties cannot support nuclear energy even though opposing it is compl…

European nuclear advocates really don’t have a satisfactory political response to Chernobyl and Fukushima. Truthfully, the best argument for nuclear power is an extremely unpleasant one: a bit of radioactive contamination (an immediate and visceral threat) is a small price to pay for the emissions offset (still a somewhat abstract and distant threat). The numbers check out but it is undeniably ghoulish. But pretendin…

> The numbers check out but it is undeniably ghoulish.

The numbers are bad for any energy source. Or any industry, for that matter. Coal-fired power plants have emitted much, much more radionuclides than the nuclear industry over the last half century. And contributed to killing millions of people.

The problem is that we’ve come to think that our current way of operating is fine. After all, it clearly is working. Except that it isn’t, but a lot of people have some trouble realising that.

> It is not “completely nonsensical” to oppose nuclear power, even if the argument is badly flawed.

You’re right, and we should be able to have a nuanced discussion. However, arguments such as “nuclear is bad because nuclear weapons” really are completely nonsensical. So is the “we should get rid of nuclear waste, but we are never going to accept to put them anywhere” argument. Or “we need better technical solutions but we oppose any R&D funding”. Or “nuclear plants are important greenhouse gas emitters”. These points are things that actual politicians say, and the a lot of other people believe. They also are utter bollocks.

> Being so condescending and dismissive doesn’t help anyone.

Quite right. And the fact that nuclear has been so opaque because of its association with the military and closely-guarded industrial secrets is very unhelpful.

That said, there are a lot of parallels with trump-like nationalism and anti-vaccination movements. At some point we have to accept that on any given issue some people are going to be vocally ignorant.

Re: Canada battles more than 180 wildfires with hundreds dead in heat wave

#66
post #3

And yet we'll continue to treat climate change as an inconvenience that can be addressed in 20 years, when - to quote Alex Steffen - we're not yet ready for what's already happened. https://alexsteffen.substack.com/p/were-not-yet-ready-for-wh...

> And yet we'll continue to treat climate change as an inconvenience that can be addressed in 20 years According to the EPA, wildfires over the past 40 years are slightly down. Can you point to different data that ties these wildfires to climate change? https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indica...

Are you just looking at the total number of fires in Figure 1? Figure 2 shows that annual wildfire-burned area has been increasing in the last 40 years. Figures 3, 6 and 7 also back that up.

Re: Canada battles more than 180 wildfires with hundreds dead in heat wave

#67
post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A big part of the problem are the green parties themselves. They were in many cases started as a youth movement against nuclear power in the 60s. The basis of these green parties consists of people who are ideologically opposed to nuclear energy and their youth rebellion against it is now part of their identity. This is why the leadership of green parties cannot support nuclear energy even though opposing it is compl…

European nuclear advocates really don’t have a satisfactory political response to Chernobyl and Fukushima. Truthfully, the best argument for nuclear power is an extremely unpleasant one: a bit of radioactive contamination (an immediate and visceral threat) is a small price to pay for the emissions offset (still a somewhat abstract and distant threat). The numbers check out but it is undeniably ghoulish. But pretendin…

> Chernobyl was a traumatic event

And yet the number of casualties is lower than the number of casualties caused every year in Europe by coal: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/jun/12/european...

I don't deny it was a traumatic event. But like airplane crashes, the emotion can differ from cold numbers.

Re: Canada battles more than 180 wildfires with hundreds dead in heat wave

#68
post #3

And yet we'll continue to treat climate change as an inconvenience that can be addressed in 20 years, when - to quote Alex Steffen - we're not yet ready for what's already happened. https://alexsteffen.substack.com/p/were-not-yet-ready-for-wh...

> And yet we'll continue to treat climate change as an inconvenience that can be addressed in 20 years According to the EPA, wildfires over the past 40 years are slightly down. Can you point to different data that ties these wildfires to climate change? https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indica...

Anec-data: I’m in my 40s and live in the Vancouver area. The first time in my life that I ever experienced a smoked in summer was about 5 years ago.

Actual data: the link you posted shows a decrease in fires overall, but the size and damage of them increasing. I guess when the fires are so big and start merging your overall count goes down.

Re: Canada battles more than 180 wildfires with hundreds dead in heat wave

#69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Per-capita emissions may be fair if it looked at where products are consumed , but in my experience the data only looks at emissions produced divided by population. Producer countries like China and especially Canada with their energy industry will look worse than they actually are because other countries have effectively outsourced their CO2 emissions to these countries.

That's very true. You have the option of either attributing these emissions to the consuming country, or to not do so and hope that it creates a trade-equilibrium as a side-effect, where each country produces within their CO2 limits. Either way, even though China is a producer country and far from being clean or sustainable, its emissions are still way behind certain large first world countries. We (that is North Ame…

> that is North America and the heart of Europe save France

Rest assured that France is really keen on carbonising its electricity supply and closing a significant number of its nuclear plants, thus going back into the fold of its European neighbours. Stupidity knows no border.

Re: Canada battles more than 180 wildfires with hundreds dead in heat wave

#70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Consumers in the west are (obviously) responsible for a lot of the emissions that take place in China too. And regardless - for the sake of solidarity with the developing world I think it must be considered fair that us westerners take a bigger responsibility than developing countries. There are two arguments here that are both equally valid: 1) This just won't work unless everyone is on the same page, including Chin…

but you are arguing a talking point from a decade ago -- China is definitely taking actions to diversify its power generation with solar production, convert existing systems to electrical inputs, use higher-efficiency parts like LED lighting, and other important steps. They are competing directly in science with the West in publications and PR and business cases. This re-hash amongst Western chatty people is well-int…

> but you are arguing a talking point from a decade ago -- China is definitely taking actions to diversify its power generation, convert to electrical inputs, use higher-efficiency parts like LED lighting, and other important steps.

Indeed. But the major argument against doing anything in the west is still based on the idea that it's futile so long as china doesn't do more.

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