Isn’t this basically impossible to prove? see Gödel’s Incompleteness Theorems https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/goedel-incompleteness/ Effectively we can’t prove a higher level of the simulation because we are encoded in it?
Is it impossible for software to prove it's likely in a VM just because it is 'encoded in it'? It depends on the implementation but it's definitely not impossible a priori and especially not because of Godel.
It can model itself, but it couldn't replicate itself 1:1—which maybe is the wrong assumption on my part, but is the only way you could prove with certainty that you may be living in a simulation?
I mean, without input from another source, that is.