AI and Communism: Narratives of AI Behind the Iron Curtain • Hacker News Board

Re: AI and Communism: Narratives of AI Behind the Iron Curtain

#71

Post by _2d30 » Sun, Jul 04, 2021, 7:47 PM UTC

Animats wrote: post #64

If the USSR had been into bar codes, that might have been more useful. The central planning system cycled too slowly, with monthly data and an annual plan. Compare WalMart, which had daily data and a weekly plan. WalMart is very centrally planned. More than the USSR was at peak. By the 1980s, WalMart required UPC bar codes on everything, and a different bar code on cartons and cases. Headquarters in Bentonville, Arka…

> WalMart is very centrally planned. More than the USSR was at peak. By the 1980s, WalMart required UPC bar codes on everything, and a different bar code on cartons and cases. Headquarters in Bentonville, Arkansas did purchasing and distribution control for the entire WalMart economy. They had central planning at a level Gosplan could only dream of.

> Amazon, of course, has taken that even further.

Whenever people describe WalMart or Amazon as centrally planned economies, I can't help but scoff. The idea that "retail = economy" is wildly off base. WalMart and Amazon are generally not producing anything. They are strictly distribution! What's more, it's all set in a market economy with dynamically determined market prices. This is so far from the idea of centrally planned economies as to be a ridiculous conception, yet it's so regularly used.

Re: AI and Communism: Narratives of AI Behind the Iron Curtain

#72

Post by nradov » Sun, Jul 04, 2021, 7:53 PM UTC

sudosysgen wrote: post #53

lumost wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The USSR didn't have the great depression, but they did have the HoloDomor or terror famine of Ukraine between 1932 and 1933 and the wider Soviet Famine of that period. The history of the famine later went on to inspire the book Animal Farm and were a pure artifact of the central planning economy forcing the export of the very food required to feed millions of people. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holodomor https://e…

Yes, the Soviet famines were due to erroneous data due to dysfunctional bureacracies. Which is exactly why "pen and paper" are an issue.

The Soviet famines were intentional genocide. Communist Party leaders always had plenty to eat.

https://victimsofcommunism.org/

Re: AI and Communism: Narratives of AI Behind the Iron Curtain

#73

Post by lucian1900 » Sun, Jul 04, 2021, 7:56 PM UTC

nradov wrote: post #72

sudosysgen wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, the Soviet famines were due to erroneous data due to dysfunctional bureacracies. Which is exactly why "pen and paper" are an issue.

The Soviet famines were intentional genocide. Communist Party leaders always had plenty to eat. https://victimsofcommunism.org/

A source founded and run by fascists is perhaps not ideal.

Re: AI and Communism: Narratives of AI Behind the Iron Curtain

#74

Post by lucian1900 » Sun, Jul 04, 2021, 7:57 PM UTC

betwixthewires wrote: post #69

sudosysgen wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's the proximate cause. As we all know it had horrible effects. Had the USSR been able to accurately measure food production it wouldn't have happened, so it is indeed the proximal cause.

The interesting thing about market economies is that the economy itself measures the food and distributes it in a maximally efficient manner when left unmolested, no central planner needed. Distributed economies will always be more efficient than planned economies, because everyone on a distributed economy participates in the cognitive load of measuring and distributing resources, so the network has more processing p…

And yet many starved during the Great Depression as food was being destroyed to prevent its price from cratering.

Also, planning can be distributed too. Historically it always has been, to varying degrees depending on technology available.

Re: AI and Communism: Narratives of AI Behind the Iron Curtain

#75

Post by dundarious » Sun, Jul 04, 2021, 7:59 PM UTC

whatshisface wrote: post #63

dundarious wrote: post #47

It's interesting to note that central planning has been highly effective for small nation state sized corporations such as Walmart[0] presumably long before any adoption of AI, and that attempts at pervasive internal markets at Sears[1] arguably rapidly accelerated its downfall. That's absolutely not to say that Walmart is a direct exemplar of successful Soviet-style "state capitalism" or socialism, nor that Sears is…

Centralized control works out OK in retail because if an evil madman seizes power over Walmart everyone can go to Target instead.

Walmart is arguably already a private unaccountable tyranny that has seized near complete market control in many, many locations. Again, the criticisms and potential solutions cut both ways.

Re: AI and Communism: Narratives of AI Behind the Iron Curtain

#76

Post by nradov » Sun, Jul 04, 2021, 7:59 PM UTC

sudosysgen wrote: post #51

slibhb wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If you have good knowledge of the economy and of production mechanisms you can simply not do anything that could cause a crash But we don't have that knowledge. Economists disagree on many foundational questions. At some point, economics shades into psychology and we certainly don't have theories that predict human behavior. I don't discount the possibility that knowledge can help economies run more smoothly but yo…

I mean knowledge of the real economy. What materials there are and what is done with it. That's all you need in a planned economy to avoid crises. I said that the USSR had one economic crisis that wasn't due to exogenous circumstances. Which is true. I agree that free markets outperformed them. I'm saying there is clearly potential for improvement since the USSR was so dysfunctional and was planned with pen and paper…

There is no way to gain accurate, detailed knowledge of the real economy. It has always been impossible. That's one of several reasons why economic central planning is stupid.

Re: AI and Communism: Narratives of AI Behind the Iron Curtain

#77

Post by suifbwish » Sun, Jul 04, 2021, 8:11 PM UTC

_2d30 wrote: post #71

Animats wrote: post #64

If the USSR had been into bar codes, that might have been more useful. The central planning system cycled too slowly, with monthly data and an annual plan. Compare WalMart, which had daily data and a weekly plan. WalMart is very centrally planned. More than the USSR was at peak. By the 1980s, WalMart required UPC bar codes on everything, and a different bar code on cartons and cases. Headquarters in Bentonville, Arka…

> WalMart is very centrally planned. More than the USSR was at peak. By the 1980s, WalMart required UPC bar codes on everything, and a different bar code on cartons and cases. Headquarters in Bentonville, Arkansas did purchasing and distribution control for the entire WalMart economy. They had central planning at a level Gosplan could only dream of. > Amazon, of course, has taken that even further. Whenever people de…

Not to completely disagree but saying distribution is less important than production is a bit like taking apart a machine that has the minimum possible number of parts for operation and deciding some gears are more critical than others, yet if you were to remove any of them the entire machine fails.

Production of goods and services is usually not as difficult as the art of efficiently distributing them. In a capitalist society, needs and wants become essentially the same thing and demands are often more virtual rather than actual as the ultimate demand for everything not being directly consumed is usually to gain more tickets/tokens/coins to potentially be eligible for more future needs/wants. The main beauty of a capitalist system is that it self propagates as there is an inherent or unspoken need for everyone to continue doing something for the system in order to not lose what has been acquired. Other systems do seem to theoretically have the potential for much greater efficiencies but defining one and actioning it are incredibly difficult, often because they are rarely actually planned and those doing the planning do not always have human rights as priority when doing so.

Re: AI and Communism: Narratives of AI Behind the Iron Curtain

#78

Post by lr1970 » Sun, Jul 04, 2021, 8:19 PM UTC

IMHO, the main issues of USSR economy in addition to central planning were total lack of economic and social incentives for productive work. Career growth and personal income were almost independent of how a person performed in their daily job. There was simply no motivation (at least in the last two decades of the USSR's existence).

Re: AI and Communism: Narratives of AI Behind the Iron Curtain

#79

Post by wcarss » Sun, Jul 04, 2021, 8:20 PM UTC

whatshisface wrote: post #63

dundarious wrote: post #47

It's interesting to note that central planning has been highly effective for small nation state sized corporations such as Walmart[0] presumably long before any adoption of AI, and that attempts at pervasive internal markets at Sears[1] arguably rapidly accelerated its downfall. That's absolutely not to say that Walmart is a direct exemplar of successful Soviet-style "state capitalism" or socialism, nor that Sears is…

Centralized control works out OK in retail because if an evil madman seizes power over Walmart everyone can go to Target instead.

Interesting. That implies an authoritarian dictatorship is necessary for central planning -- what reason is there that democratically elected representatives cannot operate centralized systems of resource procurement/management/allocation?

Also, aren't Walmart and Amazon technically run democratically by their shareholders? Wouldn't the remedy for a madman running Walmart be a replacement elected by the board?

Re: AI and Communism: Narratives of AI Behind the Iron Curtain

#80

Post by _2d30 » Sun, Jul 04, 2021, 8:25 PM UTC

suifbwish wrote: post #77

_2d30 wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> WalMart is very centrally planned. More than the USSR was at peak. By the 1980s, WalMart required UPC bar codes on everything, and a different bar code on cartons and cases. Headquarters in Bentonville, Arkansas did purchasing and distribution control for the entire WalMart economy. They had central planning at a level Gosplan could only dream of. > Amazon, of course, has taken that even further. Whenever people de…

Not to completely disagree but saying distribution is less important than production is a bit like taking apart a machine that has the minimum possible number of parts for operation and deciding some gears are more critical than others, yet if you were to remove any of them the entire machine fails. Production of goods and services is usually not as difficult as the art of efficiently distributing them. In a capitali…

> but saying distribution is less important than production

This isn't something that I said. I said that distribution does not an economy make. I'm demonstrating the extremely limited value of calling Amazon or WalMart an economy by showing that they are not very close to what an economy is. An additional contrast that could be made is that Amazon and WalMart are generally doing extremely minimal investment as well.