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Shorting Bitcoin

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Re: Shorting Bitcoin

#321

Post by imtringued »

arcticbull wrote: post #71
rys wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was unsure and looked it up, so in case it helps someone else: the person that died in Costa Rica is Mircea Popescu.

Yes, and our friend Pomp left this delightful message on Twitter to mark his passing. > Mircea Popescu, a Bitcoin OG, has passed away. He likely owned quite a bit of bitcoin. We may never know how much or if they are lost forever, but reminds me Satoshi said: "Lost coins only make everyone else's coins worth slightly more. Think of it as a donation to everyone." Disgusting. [Edit] To be clear I'm reacting negatively…

> Mircea Popescu, a Bitcoin OG, has passed away. He likely owned quite a bit of bitcoin. We may never know how much or if they are lost forever, but reminds me Satoshi said: "Lost coins only make everyone else's coins worth slightly more. Think of it as a donation to everyone."

So, people are literally betting on the deaths of other Bitcoin holders? Is this supposed to be a joke? If there was a Bitcoin nation then it would execute its richest members...

Re: Shorting Bitcoin

#322

Post by Sammi »

manquer wrote: post #290
Sammi wrote: post #208

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Put options have a time limit. So being early means you loose the money you used to buy the put. So yeah it is the same thing. And Michael Burry was a lucky mother effer that he managed to keep his put on all the way until it finally happened.

Or as today they would describe as it diamond hands. It is rare to have both the conviction to bet everything and also be right at the same time.

Diamond hands are for holding perpetual assets not expiring options. For reasons I explained above.

Re: Shorting Bitcoin

#323

Post by midjji »

wolfhumble wrote: post #242
midjji wrote: post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bitcoin, like tesla stock is better predicted by treating it as a religion than a rational investment. So how long are people going to believe a kid who said a god knocked her up to avoid getting stoned?

> So how long are people going to believe a kid who said a god knocked her up to avoid getting stoned? What you say does not make much sense. When Jesus came to Nazareth as a grown man, this is what His neighbours said about Him: “Isn’t this the carpenter’s son? Isn’t his mother’s name Mary, and aren’t his brothers James, Joseph, Simon and Judas?" (NIV Matthew 13:54). And a few verses later: "And they took offense at…

Religion being true or not does not matter when predicting the behaviour of believers or the people who exploit belief. Trying to predict the price of tesla or bitcoin using their non investment related utility or in teslas case, comparable companies, gives extremely poor results. But if you believe in Tesla and its profit Elon Musk, that does not matter. And if you believe other people believe in Tesla in this way, and that they will keep successfully recruiting, then the price is not just motivated, but possibly kinda low.

Re: Shorting Bitcoin

#324

Post by midjji »

wolfhumble wrote: post #242
midjji wrote: post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bitcoin, like tesla stock is better predicted by treating it as a religion than a rational investment. So how long are people going to believe a kid who said a god knocked her up to avoid getting stoned?

> So how long are people going to believe a kid who said a god knocked her up to avoid getting stoned? What you say does not make much sense. When Jesus came to Nazareth as a grown man, this is what His neighbours said about Him: “Isn’t this the carpenter’s son? Isn’t his mother’s name Mary, and aren’t his brothers James, Joseph, Simon and Judas?" (NIV Matthew 13:54). And a few verses later: "And they took offense at…

Religion being true or not does not matter when predicting the behaviour of believers or the people who exploit belief. Trying to predict the price of tesla or bitcoin using their non investment related utility or in teslas case, comparable companies, gives extremely poor results. But if you believe in Tesla and its profit Elon Musk, that does not matter. And if you believe other people believe in Tesla in this way, and that they will keep successfully recruiting, then the price is not just motivated, but possibly kinda low.

Re: Shorting Bitcoin

#325

Post by cocktailpeanuts »

anonporridge wrote: post #150
cocktailpeanuts wrote: post #4

If BTC price doesn't recover soon and falls further, Microstrategy is what will kill BTC. I don't know why BTC investors are so crazy about Microstrategy buying BTC (This would have never happened back in the early days of Bitcoin), but if BTC price goes down further, Microstrategy will be forced to sell their BTC by their shareholders. Otherwise the Microstrategy stock itself will crash. Also when Microstrategy lose…

Michael Saylor, the CEO, holds 70% of the voting shares. All the other shareholders can kick and scream all they want, but Saylor controls the ship. The only power others have is to exit the ship by selling. Every indication is that Saylor would hold bitcoin into the ground, unless he's totally full of shit. Their main business is still generating enough cash to pay the loans, so where's the pressure to sell?

They will have to sell if the Bitcoin price goes down enough that their measly revenue from their obscure enterprise software can't cover the loss from their Bitcoin investment.

He can keep holding, but it will lower the morale of the employees as well as himself. Unless you think Microstrategy has completely become a hedge fund, they have products to build and they will even lose what's left of their customers if things go bad. You really think the guy can keep holding when he lost hundreds of millions of dollars through BTC? (At the moment he's still in the positive even after the crash, but I'm talking about when it goes down further) Also he can and likely will get into trouble with the SEC when things get bad.

This is not the first time Saylor did stuff like this. https://www.computerworld.com/article/2589923/update--micros...

Re: Shorting Bitcoin

#326

Post by bcrl »

codebolt wrote: post #194
femto113 wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except if you believe, as the author does, that the entire market is just scams and insider manipulation there is no meaning to be gleaned from any of the numbers. If it's all a sham it will blow up at some point, it's just a question of when, but that will almost certainly be precipitated by some unpredictable external event.

One major caveat; You're not shorting BTC/USD, you're shorting BTC/USDT. As long as Tether is managed by a shady, unregulated corporation with zero transparency or oversight, that has full freedom to create as much artificial liquidity as they see fit, that seems like a very bad bet.

Why not short USDT directly then rather than throwing BTC into the mix?

Re: Shorting Bitcoin

#327

Post by Sammi »

Kbelicius wrote: post #229
Sammi wrote: post #196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're relying on a nation state to behave in a certain way. This never works out in the long term. The winds of politics change on a whim. That's just history for you. With Bitcoin you instead rely on the intrinsic properties of the protocol. No ifs or buts.

You aren't making a lot of sense here since you are relying on an unelected group of people to behave in a certain way. > This never works out in the long term. The winds of politics change on a whim. That's just history for you. With a nation state you instead rely on the intrinsic properties of the law. No ifs or buts.

The law changes dramatically every time there is a new government. The bitcoin protocol stays the same.

Re: Shorting Bitcoin

#328

Post by Kbelicius »

Sammi wrote: post #327
Kbelicius wrote: post #229

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You aren't making a lot of sense here since you are relying on an unelected group of people to behave in a certain way. > This never works out in the long term. The winds of politics change on a whim. That's just history for you. With a nation state you instead rely on the intrinsic properties of the law. No ifs or buts.

The law changes dramatically every time there is a new government. The bitcoin protocol stays the same.

That is not true. The bitcoin protocol can change and did change. If you fire up the original wallet it won't sync.

Re: Shorting Bitcoin

#329

Post by rcMgD2BwE72F »

SigmundA wrote: post #252
rcMgD2BwE72F wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

False. Tesla has never used pouch celles in the Chinese market.

Prismatic CATL's right? Closer to a pouch than cylindrical 21700's.

Any source about Tesla actually using CATL's prismatic? IIRC, there was only rumors.

Re: Shorting Bitcoin

#330

Post by retube »

jschulenklopper wrote: post #218
panarky wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Since he bought his puts on 6/26, BTC is up 9.5%, MSTR is up 9.9% and COIN is up 13.5%. He's already pretty deep underwater.

Is he underwater? Aren't the put options that he bought previously just not cheaper now? On options being underwater: "Underwater stock options have an exercise price which is greater than the market price of the underlying stock." Is that his situation?

If the asset he has bought is now cheaper, then yes he is "underwater" (i.e he has lost money on a mark-to-market basis - if he was to close out he would crystallize a loss)
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