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The risky bat-virus engineering that links America to Wuhan

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Re: The risky bat-virus engineering that links America to Wuhan

#71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I stand corrected. Is any of what they said accurate?

I haven't watched their Congressional testimony, but I've read Quay's "analysis" and heard Asher propound on his bioweapon theory elsewhere. Quay's analysis is not a rigorous Bayesian analysis in any sense. It's a series of subjective judgments about likelihoods of various scenarios. It's classic garbage-in, garbage-out, dressed up as science by using the word "Bayesian." The thing is, Bayesian inference is only as g…

One problem for the wet market theory is that neither bats nor pangolins were sold at that wet market:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-91470-2

"Here we document 47,381 individuals from 38 species, including 31 protected species sold between May 2017 and November 2019 in Wuhan’s markets. We note that no pangolins (or bats) were traded, supporting reformed opinion that pangolins were not likely the spillover host at the source of the current coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic."

That doesn't mean there couldn't be a zoonotic explanation, of course, but it does significantly complicate the main alternative to the theory that WIV was doing coronavirus research in humanized mice and that escaped from the lab.

Re: The risky bat-virus engineering that links America to Wuhan

#72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's because the source regularly deliberately misinforms. So it's impossible to know if literally any of the claims here are completely made up. For example: _In December 2019, The Sun's political editor, Tom Newton Dunn, wrote an article for the paper titled "Hijacked Labour", alleging that "Jeremy Corbyn is at the centre of an extraordinary network of hard-left extremists pieced together by former British intell…

Look up NYTimes and yellow cake. Oh wait that doesn't fit your narrative. Oh well. I'm sure you have some explanation for why one is better then the other and it's a totally valid non partisan, non bias, totally fair minded reason. hN is just full of highly propagandized group thinkers.

This is whataboutism, as well as ad hominem.

I accurately stated that a source was not a reliable one (it’s a British tabloid, my nan who survived the war knows this but I provided an example of evidence).

> hN is just full of highly propagandized group thinkers.

Rationalism and evidence.

Re: The risky bat-virus engineering that links America to Wuhan

#73

Much of the article reminds me of the description of how NASA ended up launching a shuttle in temperatures far below what they originally would have allowed. You walk just past the line, nothing bad happens, so you move the line a bit. You walk just past that line, nothing bad happens...and this repeats until, inevitably, eventually, something bad happens. Regardless of whether or not this pandemic came from this lab…

It's easy enough to apply outside audits to something like Space Shuttle development, where the goals are not secret and it's pretty well understood what you are trying to accomplish and what your capabilities are. It's a very different situation when it comes to bioweapons research -- how do you let outside auditors into Fort Detrick without running the risk of giving some game away?

Re: The risky bat-virus engineering that links America to Wuhan

#74

Much of the article reminds me of the description of how NASA ended up launching a shuttle in temperatures far below what they originally would have allowed. You walk just past the line, nothing bad happens, so you move the line a bit. You walk just past that line, nothing bad happens...and this repeats until, inevitably, eventually, something bad happens. Regardless of whether or not this pandemic came from this lab…

This sort of work should absolutely get more difficult for western scientists too. We’ve had several lab leaks that through luck didn’t turn in to pandemics. Certainly the costs of auditing and complying with lab safety is far cheaper than a global pandemic.

Re: The risky bat-virus engineering that links America to Wuhan

#75
The problem with this whole article is that we know of no suitable backbone virus to use, and we know of no suitable spike-protein sequence to form a chimera which results in SARS-CoV-2.

The experiments done on the SARS-CoV-1 or WIV1 backbone don't remotely get you close to SARS-CoV-2 and you're dealing with centuries of evolutionary difference there.

The RaTG13 virus backbone is also several decades of evolution away from SARS-CoV-2.

Learning how to replicate a virus in the lab is also not simple so they're not going to be doing this with every virus they find. We know they managed to do it with SARS-CoV-1 and WIV-1, but they'd need a reason to undertake it with any other virus.

So you have to assume that WIV has a virus which they found which is similar to RaTG13 which they have never published, and for some reason they jumped straight to making that virus replicate in the lab and creating chimeras, and they also had a previously and still unpublished spike protein which was similar to the Pangolin spike which they used. Then for some reason they didn't do this in petri dishes, but used animals and/or somehow managed to aerosolize enough of it that researchers at WIV got sick from it. This is with a virus that we now know doesn't stick to surfaces very well at all, so the actual accident remains unexplained (they had a party and someone chopped up some chimera and railed it like a line of coke? that'd do it).

While you're pondering all that keep in mind that the person who "broke" the story in the WSJ about the sick workers at the Wuhan lab was Michael R. Gordon. He's also notable for having co-authored with Judith Miller in 2002 the NYT story on Hussein's nuclear program and WMDs that arguably helped propel us into the Iraq War.

It is also worthwhile to read Shi Zhengli's rebuttal to the lab leak theory:

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/14/world/asia/china-covid-wu...

If you'd like some actual science on the zoontic investigation:

"Evidence for SARS-CoV-2 related coronaviruses circulating in bats and pangolins in Southeast Asia"

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-21240-1

"Discovery of a rich gene pool of bat SARS-related coronaviruses provides new insights into the origin of SARS coronavirus"

https://journals.plos.org/plospathogens/article?id=10.1371/j...

"Identification of novel bat coronaviruses sheds light on the evolutionary origins of SARS-CoV-2 and related viruses"

https://www.cell.com/cell/pdf/S0092-8674(21)00709-1.pdf

Re: The risky bat-virus engineering that links America to Wuhan

#76

Much of the article reminds me of the description of how NASA ended up launching a shuttle in temperatures far below what they originally would have allowed. You walk just past the line, nothing bad happens, so you move the line a bit. You walk just past that line, nothing bad happens...and this repeats until, inevitably, eventually, something bad happens. Regardless of whether or not this pandemic came from this lab…

Much of this reminds me of how we went to war against Iraq

The lead author of the WSJ piece on the "sick lab workers" is the same author that helped get us into Iraq with a NYT article on Hussein's nuclear WMD program in 2002.

Re: The risky bat-virus engineering that links America to Wuhan

#77
post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I haven't watched their Congressional testimony, but I've read Quay's "analysis" and heard Asher propound on his bioweapon theory elsewhere. Quay's analysis is not a rigorous Bayesian analysis in any sense. It's a series of subjective judgments about likelihoods of various scenarios. It's classic garbage-in, garbage-out, dressed up as science by using the word "Bayesian." The thing is, Bayesian inference is only as g…

One problem for the wet market theory is that neither bats nor pangolins were sold at that wet market: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-91470-2 "Here we document 47,381 individuals from 38 species, including 31 protected species sold between May 2017 and November 2019 in Wuhan’s markets. We note that no pangolins (or bats) were traded, supporting reformed opinion that pangolins were not likely the spillover…

> One problem for the wet market theory is that neither bats nor pangolins were sold at that wet market

That's not a problem for the theory. SARS did not come directly from bats (or pangolins). It went through civets first, which were sold at markets. That's why SARS first showed up in Foshan, 1000 km away from where the bats that harbor the ancestral virus to SARS live.

The Nature paper you linked shows that live animals that are known to be susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 were sold at the Huanan Seafood market. Because of that, the paper has been generally received as strongly supporting the idea that the outbreak began at the Huanan market.

Re: The risky bat-virus engineering that links America to Wuhan

#78

Much of the article reminds me of the description of how NASA ended up launching a shuttle in temperatures far below what they originally would have allowed. You walk just past the line, nothing bad happens, so you move the line a bit. You walk just past that line, nothing bad happens...and this repeats until, inevitably, eventually, something bad happens. Regardless of whether or not this pandemic came from this lab…

This sort of work should absolutely get more difficult for western scientists too. We’ve had several lab leaks that through luck didn’t turn in to pandemics. Certainly the costs of auditing and complying with lab safety is far cheaper than a global pandemic.

Prominent, respected virologists have been questioning gain of function research for a while. Here's a cite[1] from 2018 from Marc Lipsitch, who would be on most people's top ten list of trusted virologists on Covid. He's also one of the signatories of the letter calling for investigation[2].

I think it's possible to split out the question of bioresearch risks from Covid origins. If it was a lab leak, obviously we should regulate those risks better, but we should also do more to mitigate zoonotic spillover, because we have tons of evidence that happens and causes damage. If it wasn't lab leak, we should do more to mitigate spillover, but it would also be a good idea to be more careful about biosafety.

[1]: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7119956/

[2]: https://science.sciencemag.org/content/372/6543/694.1

Re: The risky bat-virus engineering that links America to Wuhan

#79
post #49

People will hate this source, but this is the most info I’ve seen revealed about the actual conditions in the Wuhan lab(s): https://www.the-sun.com/news/3174242/wuhan-labs-leak-covid-c...

If you want to know the actual conditions, there is a recent article from a much better source Bloomberg: The Last–And Only–Foreign Scientist in the Wuhan Lab Speaks Out She is an Australian virologist, now working in Melbourne’s Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, previously scientific director of the biosafety lab at Singapore’s Duke-NUS Medical School in 2016. Archive link: https://archive.is/IFDZY

I read that and her volunteered info was all over news sites last week. However, this is not what we need. What we need is an independent body that goes into the Wuhan lab.

Let us inspect the bats. The cages, the equipment, the staff.

Re: The risky bat-virus engineering that links America to Wuhan

#80
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