Earlier quoted context omitted.
I haven't watched their Congressional testimony, but I've read Quay's "analysis" and heard Asher propound on his bioweapon theory elsewhere. Quay's analysis is not a rigorous Bayesian analysis in any sense. It's a series of subjective judgments about likelihoods of various scenarios. It's classic garbage-in, garbage-out, dressed up as science by using the word "Bayesian." The thing is, Bayesian inference is only as g…
There are actual virologists who support the lab leak theory, but my guess is that Congress is calling him because he is pushing it as an intentional lab leak. There is so far no evidence at all for that, and it doesn't make a whole lot of sense. Biological warfare is like trying to use a grenade as a handgun. Yes it does hurt your opponent, but... Yes China did seem to contain COVID well, but if it were (hypothetica…
Very few. I don't know of any major virologist who actually says it's more likely, and the overwhelming majority say it's highly unlikely.
Right now, everything points to the outbreak being associated with animal markets, just like SARS.