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When Orcs Were Real

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Re: When Orcs Were Real

#51

Post by Bayart »

axguscbklp wrote: post #27
soapdog wrote: post #24

> Europeans defeated indigenous peoples throughout history, by superior technology and numbers. Oh boi, not this horrible and flawed argument again. People have learned nothing from recent research into the impact of diseases in that history? Popular books like "Guns, Germs, and Steel", and "1491" give you a view into these matters and provide one with references for their sources for research. This idea of "Europe w…

True, but from what I understand the Europeans would probably have won anyway. In 1500 AD, indigenous Americans had about the same level of technological development that Europeans had had in 1500 BC, so I suspect that unfortunately even had diseases not played a role, it probably would just have been a matter of time before the Europeans managed to bring over enough people to overrun the Americas. It would have take…

>Now on the other hand, if Europe had suffered something like 50%+ death from American diseases while indigenous Americans suffered much lower death tolls from European disease - in other words, the reverse of what actually happened - then I figure that all bets would have been off.

The Black Plague killed off 50% of the population in quite a few countries and it didn't result in any invasion. I'm not sure the rationale stands without a technological imbalance as a basis.

Re: When Orcs Were Real

#52

Post by tormeh »

hazbot wrote: post #35
jgilias wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A serious question. Why didn't the opposite happen? Why wouldn't the arriving Europeans drop like flies after encountering foreign pathogens thus killing off the entire conquest?

CGP Grey has a interesting video on this: Americapox: The Missing Plague - YouTube https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=JEYh5WACqEk

tl;dr: The Americas had very few animals suitable for domestication, and so Americans had less animal-to-human spread of diseases.

Re: When Orcs Were Real

#53

Post by throwanem »

roenxi wrote: post #50
throwanem wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you mean to construct a defense of the "cannibal rapist Neandertal orcs" idea on the post-factualist basis that, well, there's no actually knowing anything, so we may as well pick whatever just-so story we like? That's a pretty weak defense, is why I'm asking. Almost anything else would be more convincing. So maybe it's worth asking whether you've got anything else to offer.

> there's no actually knowing anything, so we may as well pick whatever just-so story we like? What do you think is going on here? There isn't enough evidence to create an accurate truth, we've got no way of deciding if an accurate truth has been uncovered and it doesn't matter at all anyway. The process by which "truth" is found has a heavy bias towards good storytelling and typically strong political overtones. Do…

> What do you think is going on here?

Well, to go by your prior comments, you're confusing "pick whatever just-so story you like" with how history is done. Feel free to continue, of course; I've more or less given up arguing with post-truthers in general, and certainly see no point in doing so here.

Re: When Orcs Were Real

#54

Post by littlestymaar »

> and carried off and raped our women. (How did you think the Neanderthal DNA got into our genome?)

I don't know if Neandertals were rapist, but given the behavior of Sapiens, it wouldn't be completely surprising if it was in fact the opposite: Sapiens abducting Neandertal females and raping them…

Re: When Orcs Were Real

#55

Post by thinkingemote »

soapdog wrote: post #42
axguscbklp wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

True, but from what I understand the Europeans would probably have won anyway. In 1500 AD, indigenous Americans had about the same level of technological development that Europeans had had in 1500 BC, so I suspect that unfortunately even had diseases not played a role, it probably would just have been a matter of time before the Europeans managed to bring over enough people to overrun the Americas. It would have take…

You might enjoy reading 1491 and learning more about the cultures of the Americas. There is way more there than "tech from 1500 BC", and I don't feel like just quoting from the book because I want people to go read it. It is important to realise that there are recent estimates that mention 9 out of 10 people all over the Americas dying of diseases. Remember that diseases travel faster than European invaders, so by th…

>Remember that diseases travel faster than European invaders, so by the time they arrive at those locations the population is already in kind of chaos and traumatised.

What I got from that book was even more surprising. It's that by the time the Europeans got there the devastation had gone. The chaos and trauma one night expect from a horrific war had gone, like Europe 50 years on from WW2, this was over 150 (I think) later, so now instead was jungle, small villages, tiny populations. The scars back then were not visible to the Europeans, as disease hit these people a couple or more generations ago.

Re: When Orcs Were Real

#57

Post by soapdog »

HelloNurse wrote: post #30
soapdog wrote: post #24

> Europeans defeated indigenous peoples throughout history, by superior technology and numbers. Oh boi, not this horrible and flawed argument again. People have learned nothing from recent research into the impact of diseases in that history? Popular books like "Guns, Germs, and Steel", and "1491" give you a view into these matters and provide one with references for their sources for research. This idea of "Europe w…

Horses and guns might have had a little impact too. Consider, for example, the "battle" of Cajamarca.

The battle of Cajamarca is in 1532.

The Sapa Inka and his court were all wiped out by pox in 1527, then the successor died too of pox, then their successor also died of pox as well.

Then the remaining of the court had to choose a new Inka, and we get to civil war between the new Inka (who was a teenager) and Atawallpa. The whole Empire was already in civil war for three years before the Spanish arrive, and the diseases were spreading through their lands faster than the Spanish. The last battle of the civil war counted 35 thousand dead according to recent research, and that is only the final battle, the one that gave victory to Atawallpa. This battle was few months before Pizarro appeared on the scene.

It was on the same year that the Spanish arrive in their land, that Atawallpa became Inka. Yes, this was not a stable Empire that met Pizarro, it was an Empire just out of a brutal civil war, whose new government didn't had any time to adjust or consolidate.

Atawallpa tried to manipulate the Spanish after seeing their lust for gold, he was arrogant. The Spanish didn't win because horses and guns, the Spanish won because the Empire was in shambles, because Atawallpa thought he could manipulate those white skinned people, because pox killed a ton of people including the ruling elite before the Spanish arrived.

Re: When Orcs Were Real

#58

Post by soapdog »

Bayart wrote: post #51
axguscbklp wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

True, but from what I understand the Europeans would probably have won anyway. In 1500 AD, indigenous Americans had about the same level of technological development that Europeans had had in 1500 BC, so I suspect that unfortunately even had diseases not played a role, it probably would just have been a matter of time before the Europeans managed to bring over enough people to overrun the Americas. It would have take…

>Now on the other hand, if Europe had suffered something like 50%+ death from American diseases while indigenous Americans suffered much lower death tolls from European disease - in other words, the reverse of what actually happened - then I figure that all bets would have been off. The Black Plague killed off 50% of the population in quite a few countries and it didn't result in any invasion. I'm not sure the ration…

Because it also hit the Middle East, Asia, and Africa. Where would the invader come from? They were also dying of it too. In China alone there were about 40% dead according to recent estimates. The Black Plague was not restricted to Europe, it came to Europe and it wrecked nations everywhere. You can't have people invading, if these potential invaders are dealing with the same plague.

Re: When Orcs Were Real

#59

Post by soapdog »

Bayart wrote: post #45
soapdog wrote: post #24

> Europeans defeated indigenous peoples throughout history, by superior technology and numbers. Oh boi, not this horrible and flawed argument again. People have learned nothing from recent research into the impact of diseases in that history? Popular books like "Guns, Germs, and Steel", and "1491" give you a view into these matters and provide one with references for their sources for research. This idea of "Europe w…

Acknowledging the weight of passive factors (disease) shouldn't be at the cost of disqualifying the role of active ones like technology (military, political, administrative, trades). The Spanish had plenty of military engagements in the early colonization of the Americas that were easily solved purely because of their overwhelming technological advantages.

That is the biased narrative that we have been told for centuries, and it doesn't match recent research. Diseases happened first, they travel faster. The population affected devolves into chaos as disease often kills 9 in 10 and leave them without ruling and without those with specialised knowledge. Basically society is broken, the traumatised survivors are the ones that face the Europeans.

> military, political, administrative, trades

The civilisations of the Americas were trading with each other. Many of them had highly structured political and administrative centers. Just research the Inka for example, they had an administrative structure that in many ways is better than their European counterparts, a good example is how they eliminated hunger in the Empire. They had mechanisms in place to prevent the population dying of starvation, they were able to feed their whole Empire, that is not easy and requires a ton of accounting and planning.

Do not dismiss the civilisations of the Americas, and think that there is a ladder of evolution in which Europe is somehow higher. These civilisations were very advanced, and had they been able to survive in their own path, who knows where we'd be.

As for military, just check how fast the Spanish conquistadors changed from their equipment and garments to the native ones because they were better suited for work in the tropical climate, and how bitter were the confrontations with the pockets of resistance.

Disease is the key factor. Recent figures such as 90% dying from diseases is a devastating blow to any civilisation, there is no recovering from that.

Re: When Orcs Were Real

#60

Post by axguscbklp »

soapdog wrote: post #42
axguscbklp wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

True, but from what I understand the Europeans would probably have won anyway. In 1500 AD, indigenous Americans had about the same level of technological development that Europeans had had in 1500 BC, so I suspect that unfortunately even had diseases not played a role, it probably would just have been a matter of time before the Europeans managed to bring over enough people to overrun the Americas. It would have take…

You might enjoy reading 1491 and learning more about the cultures of the Americas. There is way more there than "tech from 1500 BC", and I don't feel like just quoting from the book because I want people to go read it. It is important to realise that there are recent estimates that mention 9 out of 10 people all over the Americas dying of diseases. Remember that diseases travel faster than European invaders, so by th…

I think that the native Americans would have managed to learn how to use European technology just fine, but I think that it would have been hard for them to build the necessary infrastructure to mass-produce it in time. Maybe if they had managed to ally with one group of Europeans long enough to hold the others off and give them the needed time, it would have worked.
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