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Heat dome causing record breaking heat wave

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Re: Heat dome causing record breaking heat wave

#291

Post by drran »

_ph_ wrote: post #146
AngryData wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It isn't technology that holds back water desalination, it is energy availability/cost. Even the most promising desalination tech is only a small efficiency boost over simpler established methods. Yeah efficiency gains certain help over the long term, but the overall energy costs are still enormous and nearly require dedicated power plant for any significant amount of clean water. The best bet in actually desalinatin…

Wouldn't solar be much better for powering desalination than nuclear power? It is way cheaper per energy produced than nuclear, especially in those countries, which need desalination most. Also, it doesn't take a decade to set up. Not even mentioning proliferation issues.

Yep, evaporator + condenser works very well in nature for billions of years.

For example: https://news.mit.edu/2020/passive-solar-powered-water-desali...

Re: Heat dome causing record breaking heat wave

#292

Post by lovemenot »

Taek wrote: post #287
lovemenot wrote: post #285

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This kind of argument is often made, but it is wrong. >> As an individual, there isn't really anything you can do. Going vegetarian doesn't help. These words are expressed as absolute. "isn't really anything" ... "doesn't help" Yet the reality is such activities are positive in a small way. They may be far from sufficient, but they are not nothing. To be clear I am not arguing that individual action alone will be suf…

Humans psychologically keep an internal karma counter, this has been established in scientific studies. People who performed small acts of kindness earlier in the day were less likely to take responsibility during bigger problems later in the day. We can apply that to global warming. If you do your part by recycling, this makes you less likely to feel the need to participate in bigger discussions around controlling e…

Thanks for replying. I thought that might be your reasoning.

Without agreeing or disagreeing with your rationale, for me it would be better if you'd make this more clear from the outset.

Something like: individuals can only make very limited positive impact, which in many instances is confounded by psychological factors driving behaviour in the wrong direction.

Your understanding is better than your initial communication.

There are in fact aspects of your argument that I disagree with concerning the Overton Window, but we needn't go there for now.

At least you are no longer infuriating to me.

Re: Heat dome causing record breaking heat wave

#293

Post by blondie9x »

i_love_music wrote: post #178
blondie9x wrote: post #3

To some seeing records such as these fall is heartbreaking. It’s agonizing and vexing when you wonder what can you do to help slow down climate change? The reality is we aren’t doing nearly enough to slow it down and the Earth is gradually destabilizing. We see insane cold snaps such as those that impacted Texas this winter, and at the opposite end of the spectrum heat waves unlike anything humans have ever experienc…

I don't understand the negative comments towards you. Are people living in denial? I appreciate your comment.

Thank you.

Re: Heat dome causing record breaking heat wave

#294

Post by throwawayuw »

lovemenot wrote: post #286
throwawayuw wrote: post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Throwaway as well because I've worked with Cliff Mass and am not interested in being at the receiving end of the retaliation that he's known for doling out. Cliff is kind of a pariah among meteorologists and climate scientists. He _loves_ that fact, and revels in this idea that he's the lone genius who got it right while the rest of the community got it wrong on climate change. But he's not viewed as someone who make…

Would you mind explaining your reasoning. This statement about climate for instance: "the bigger the temperature extreme the SMALLER the contribution of global warming... " Is it wrong? If so, how so?

Yes, it's backwards. The most common way this is quantified is using Fraction of Attributable Risk (FAR) [0]. Even if the mean of the temperature distribution is just shifted slightly upward with no change in shape, the higher the threshold, the larger the fraction of risk that is attributable to the change in mean. This holds for all but pathological distributions, and doesn't even require increased variability or anything like that.

[0] Figure 1.1f here: https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/3/2019/11/05_S...

Re: Heat dome causing record breaking heat wave

#295

Post by nxc18 »

justshowpost wrote: post #251
nxc18 wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Chinese have not been successful in getting people to have more children. Recent news is that they may be covering up for the early stages of population decline. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-report-first-popul... Beyond that, the consensus is that population will naturally plateau in the near future, no need for killing people you don’t like. https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/06/17/worlds-po…

Huh? Communist China was (and still is) aiming to have LESS children. Before 2015 they didn't allow more than 1 (one!) child per family. Currently they are allowing 2 (two) children which is below sustainability threshold of 2.4

You shouldn’t sleep on China, they move and change quickly.

https://www.bloombergquint.com/global-economics/china-to-all...

Re: Heat dome causing record breaking heat wave

#296

Post by lamontcg »

the_third_wave wrote: post #223
lamontcg wrote: post #171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Earth has had 2,000+ ppm CO2 concentrations in the past and hasn't turned into Venus. And more or less we're going to dig up all the dinosaurs and plants that died and turned into oil/carbon and put them back in the atmosphere and return to that if we do nothing. But we have a record of what that looks like and its not Venus. That's also a very silly things to "fear" since to turn into Venus you gotta do things l…

The planet has been ice-free in past interglacials, e.g. the last interglacial (before the current Holocene) was warmer than the current. Earth becoming like Venus would take far more terraforming than it would take to turn Mars into a new Earth, probably comparable to turning Venus into an Earth-like planet - i.e. it is not going to happen. In "a few thousand years" [1] the temperature will drop precipitously and we…

A carbon level of 1,000-2,000 ppm will prevent that interglacial from happening and will melt Antarctica by that point in time.

For the past 1,000,000 years, through many interglacials, the carbon level has never exceeded 300 ppm.

If you look at what "should" be happening right now then we should be cooling. The last interglacial ended 10,000 years ago and the fast Milankovich cycle caused by oscillations of the axial tilt is in a cooling (decreasing tilt) trend. If prior ice age cycles held we should be seeing cooling and the formation of continential glaciers in northern Canada. That natural cycle has been decisively broken.

Re: Heat dome causing record breaking heat wave

#297

Post by fulafel »

runarberg wrote: post #274
misiti3780 wrote: post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I hate to rain on your parade, but any solution that doesnt lean heavily on nuclear is not a solution. 50% of the population may be climate deniers (need a reference though), but there is a large group of progressives that loved the green new deal also, which did not include nuclear energy, so there is blame on both sides.

I hear this kind of rhetoric all the time. 15 years ago it was “any solution to world hunger that doesn’t lean heavily on GMO is not a solution.” . The lack of food security was/is not a problem of production but of distribution. GMO may produce more nutrient rich food, but has failed to do so at scale (also so does better soil management and more crop variety). Today, people are instead advocating nuclear power as t…

Indeed, it's classic mindset problem of wanting to solve a social and policy problem by your pet tech silver bullet idea.

Re: Heat dome causing record breaking heat wave

#298

Post by lovecg »

t0mbstone wrote: post #202
_carbyau_ wrote: post #160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On the one hand, it is easy to see the direct link. OTOH, you can't blame a person - or company - for playing according to the rules of the game. It comes down to: "Why should I eschew a car and take 250% longer to travel places on COVID infested public transport, when my neighbour Bob jumps in his BMW SUV and drives." We need leadership from lawmakers or nothing meaningful will happen.

Anyone who thinks they are going to make a difference by abstaining from driving their car is woefully misinformed. We have cargo ships right now that are burning dirty oil and producing massive amounts of pollution. It has been estimated that just one of these container ships, the length of around six football pitches, can produce the same amount of pollution as 50 million cars.

Note that this is pollution as measured by a few specific pollutants and explicitly _not_ CO2. While this is definitely a problem, if you care about climate change the cars are still a big deal.

Re: Heat dome causing record breaking heat wave

#299

Post by lovemenot »

throwawayuw wrote: post #294
lovemenot wrote: post #286

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Would you mind explaining your reasoning. This statement about climate for instance: "the bigger the temperature extreme the SMALLER the contribution of global warming... " Is it wrong? If so, how so?

Yes, it's backwards. The most common way this is quantified is using Fraction of Attributable Risk (FAR) [0]. Even if the mean of the temperature distribution is just shifted slightly upward with no change in shape, the higher the threshold, the larger the fraction of risk that is attributable to the change in mean. This holds for all but pathological distributions, and doesn't even require increased variability or a…

Thank you. This makes sense now and seems to me the right way of looking at the matter.

I think I now understand what Mass was doing. Something like: "The bigger my overall remuneration (salary + bonus) the smaller the relative contribution made by my fixed salary."

Right answer, wrong question.

Re: Heat dome causing record breaking heat wave

#300

Post by TiberiusC »

dillondoyle wrote: post #272
TiberiusC wrote: post #258

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Economic empowerment is the single greatest strategy to improve the climate and that is the entirety of the Republican platform.

How so?

Marc Andreessen expands on this more but essentially GDP growth allows for more productivity growth that wouldn’t occur without economic growth. And the more productivity growth we have the less natural resources we need.
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