Tell HN: Don't root for WFH, it might destroy well-paying jobs • Hacker News Board

Re: Tell HN: Don't root for WFH, it might destroy well-paying jobs

#91

Post by RestlessMind » Thu, Jul 01, 2021, 7:30 AM UTC

mkhpalm wrote: post #80

Its really not that easy to build teams in dramatically different geographic locations. Ignoring all the legal waters you have to navigate you typically slow down output while your management complexity explodes. Not saying it can't be done. Just that in my experience it typically doesn't have the effect people initially think it will.

And that is the point. You are not building teams. You are hiring one member at a time for a team in my company. Just that most of the new members will be from Canada or Colombia going forward, and not from Atlanta or SV. And they are equally effective because of the same timezone unlike Europe or Asia. How long before our CFO crunches the numbers and stops US headcount completely?

Re: Tell HN: Don't root for WFH, it might destroy well-paying jobs

#92

Post by caskstrength » Thu, Jul 01, 2021, 7:31 AM UTC

What prevented the high-paying SV companies from just opening offices in low-cost countries before the pandemic? From my point of view people who establish hiring process in those companies guarantee their job-security by leetcode-style interviews with some "cultural fit" sprinkled on top. People outside of SV-bubble (e.g. all your normal devs, including very smart ones) are not accustomed to reversing AVL trees on whiteboard in 20 minutes and preparing stories from their previous jobs according to STAR.

Re: Tell HN: Don't root for WFH, it might destroy well-paying jobs

#93

Post by [deleted] » Thu, Jul 01, 2021, 7:32 AM UTC

[deleted]

Re: Tell HN: Don't root for WFH, it might destroy well-paying jobs

#94

Post by RestlessMind » Thu, Jul 01, 2021, 7:34 AM UTC

neximo64 wrote: post #5

So its not nice working amongst people who can be even more talented and picked from a wider pool of people?

Nope, it's much nicer to maintain your relative power and privilege. Stop being altruistic and learn from Doctors. If you don't fight for your power, it will be snatched from you and no one will care about you. Just ask all the former workers in the manufacturing sector in midwest, whose only available career option now is to work at a Walmart. Do you think it is "nice" for them to compete with a global pool of manufacturing workers? Why should they care about the middle class opportunities in foreign countries when their own life is in peril now?

Re: Tell HN: Don't root for WFH, it might destroy well-paying jobs

#95

Post by zozbot234 » Thu, Jul 01, 2021, 7:34 AM UTC

RestlessMind wrote: post #89

mssundaram wrote: post #9

Hot take: if you're a mediocre dev, maybe be worried; if you're in a niche and have deep expertise you'll be fine.

This has a flywheel effect where once you start gathering critical mass in a place, the original experts lose their edge eventually. See what happened to manufacturing, where China is leaps and bounds ahead of Western nations.

> See what happened to manufacturing, where China is leaps and bounds ahead of Western nations.

Wait, no they aren't. They do a lot of labor-intensive, non-specialized manufacturing but other countries are still way ahead where it matters.

Re: Tell HN: Don't root for WFH, it might destroy well-paying jobs

#96

Post by RestlessMind » Thu, Jul 01, 2021, 7:36 AM UTC

csdreamer7 wrote: post #39

Your arguments really need a jump in logic to be accepted. They also completely fall apart when you realize two things: Offshoring has been happening for decades. H1B abuse has been happening for decades. Yet salaries rose.

I explained the big difference this time here ( https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27697067 )and here ( https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27697088 )

Summary: outsourcing was never really going to work due to collaboration hurdles. Current model is to replace one US-worker at a time with a non-US-worker from the same timezone. Much more effective and much more lethal to US workers.

Re: Tell HN: Don't root for WFH, it might destroy well-paying jobs

#97

Post by RestlessMind » Thu, Jul 01, 2021, 7:40 AM UTC

underseacables wrote: post #2

What percentage of a pay decrease would you accept to work from home? If your job said come into the office, or take a 30% cut and work from home, would you do it?

Here is how CFO and finance people are thinking: 1. give only 15% pay cut -> 2. train people to WFH -> 3. build all the necessary systems to make WFH effective -> 4. Leverage those systems and start hiring new workers, for much cheaper than the cheapest US workers, from other countries one at a time -> 5. Stop hiring within US

My company is already on 4 and may soon move to 5. Is that a future you want? You may take a 15-20% paycut and enjoy your suburban luxury lifestyle for a few years. Beyond that, as the WFH from foreign countries kicks in, you will see that there won't be many job openings at a high salary for your role.

Re: Tell HN: Don't root for WFH, it might destroy well-paying jobs

#98

Post by RestlessMind » Thu, Jul 01, 2021, 7:42 AM UTC

nthngtshr wrote: post #48

I'm in SV. What a horrible take. Globalization of tech jobs is net positive for the whole world including the US. We're all gonna have more thing made cheaper and faster, isn't that great? I can see how you can argue it's not the case with some industries, e.g steel and coal (see poverty in Appalachia), because it's hurting those communities. But this is tech, we already have it way too easy. I say let's double down…

Hahaha... for a moment, I thought you were being sarcastic. But in case you are serious, please go and study the decline of manufacturing and the plight of manufacturing workers and how their lives were ruined because of globalization. I certainly don't want that for me. I care for my own comfort first, because no one else is going to.

Re: Tell HN: Don't root for WFH, it might destroy well-paying jobs

#99

Post by RestlessMind » Thu, Jul 01, 2021, 7:43 AM UTC

rubicon33 wrote: post #47

I've been sounding this alarm for years, on def ears. Nobody wants to hear it but the truth has never been more clear. There is a HUGE pool of talented, hungry developers around the world who want YOUR job for 1/4th of your pay. The second US companies open their doors to those engineers, we will see dramatic decline in SW salaries. What has held this at bay so far as definitely been the companies that don't allow re…

Amen, brother. Well said and I hope we are able to defeat this trend.

Re: Tell HN: Don't root for WFH, it might destroy well-paying jobs

#100

Post by RestlessMind » Thu, Jul 01, 2021, 7:46 AM UTC

zozbot234 wrote: post #88

RestlessMind wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If this problem was only narrowly applicable to SV, then yes, you might have a point. I am talking about a majority of new hires being in other countries. At that point, to spite SV rich techies, you are rooting for destruction of a good pool of middle class jobs for the entire US. Is that really what you want?

> I am talking about a majority of new hires being in other countries. That would be no different from the mid-2000s outsourcing trend, which never really worked out either. There were just lots and lots of horror stories where quality and productivity would take a nosedive whenever those outsourced teams were involved.

But that time, we were outsourcing whole projects which was doomed to fail because of collaboration hurdles and a lack of context. This time is different - we are hiring one team member at a time, who are equally effective as other team members, except at 1/3 price.

I have seen both, 2000's outsourcing and what is happening now. It is a very different game now and far more dangerous to US techies.