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HK media erase their archives amid rising arrests

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Re: HK media erase their archives amid rising arrests

#191

Post by skissane »

mytailorisrich wrote: post #165
skissane wrote: post #161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The West and India seem to get along much better than the West and China. Is that simply because India is weaker? Or is it because India and the West are closer in values? India has a pluralist political system; China doesn't. (There are of course some doubts about what direction India is going in given the Modi government, but even given those concerns, India still has far more of a pluralist political system than C…

I'm not sure that the West and India are closer in values than the West and China if you take a comprehensive look. And we could also look at the closeness between India and China vs them and the West. After all, neither of them are Western cultures and they have a long history of interactions. But this is irrelevant. In general political regimes hardly matter. The US are best friends with some of the most backward a…

> In general political regimes hardly matter. The US are best friends with some of the most backward and repressive regimes on the planet

I think the contemporary US does have a political preference for democratic regimes all else being equal. When the US gets cozy with non-democratic regimes – for example, Middle Eastern states such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States – there is usually some other motivation which is felt as more pressing than the desire for democracy – oil, containment of Iran, keeping Israel safe and secure, fears of religious radicalism and terrorism, the fear that if the general populace were allowed to vote for whatever government they want, they'd elect Hamas or the Muslim Brotherhood, etc. It is not that the US doesn't care about democracy at all, it is just that sometimes it cares about other things more.

> India is much weaker than China and is not assertive as a global power

The Chinese government has attempted to interfere with Australian domestic politics [0]. Obviously that upsets the Australian government (and many people in Australia), and sustaining the US-Australia alliance requires that the US take Australian upset seriously. Some Australians find it particularly offensive given China's hypocritical preaching about "non-interference". The Indian government doesn't make any comparable attempts to interfere with the domestic affairs of US allies, which is part of why the US and its allies have much better relations with India than with China.

[0] see e.g https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sam_Dastyari#Chinese_influence... https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/beijing-controls-chi... https://www.csis.org/analysis/countering-chinas-influence-op...

Re: HK media erase their archives amid rising arrests

#192

Post by mytailorisrich »

starfallg wrote: post #176
mytailorisrich wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nationalism is a reaction of Chinese society that predates the CCP. The CCP is a product of it, not the cause. Indeed they know that they have to show achievements in that area because that's what the people want. As a matter of fact that have actually being successful in that regards when the Nationalists had failed. On the world stage the focus is on the CCP and China's political regime because it makes selling ant…

>If tomorrow the whole of China became a democracy very little to nothing of their key policies and aims would change No idea why you would say that. China's policy focus would immediately change. Domestically it can no longer afford to focus solely on middle/upper-class growth due to the need to appease the majority of the population still living on low wages. The transparency of the decision making would also cause…

> No idea why you would say that.

I was focussing on foreign policy and geopolitics, which really hasn't changed much since before the PRC.

For instance their policy in the South China Sea is not something dreamt up by the CCP. The "9-dash line" predates the CCP and the PRC. It dates back to the ROC and as such is still the official policy in Taiwan as well (they keep quiet because they are too weak and don't want to piss off neighbours). What's happened is that China is no longer weak and is now able to reassert itself. In a democratic China it's almost certain that nothing would change in the South China Sea, and that has the full support of the Chinese public.

> Whether this results in closer cooperation with the west

This would not because, as I mentioned, the political regime is a red herring here. The antagonisms are caused by China's growing strength and power. China asserts its interests, which are not aligned with the West's. This is not caused by the CCP, this is the profound geopolitical reality.

What's happening is that a superpower that is not Western (in a general sense of European, Christian culture) is appearing, this is more profound than political regimes, which are actually quite superficial. This has not happened for centuries. People have been conditioned to believe that everyone will align with the West and that being a democracy means aligning with the US, but why would that be? That's just propaganda dating from the Cold War, really.

> it can no longer afford to focus solely on middle/upper-class growth due to the need to appease the majority of the population still living on low wages

They are already doing a lot to "appease" the poorest. Economic growth has benefited them a lot and the government is also doing more to alleviate growing inequalities because they know very well that they have to. They are certainly not focussing on "middle/upper-class growth".

Re: HK media erase their archives amid rising arrests

#193

Post by saiya-jin »

blast wrote: post #104
wyager wrote: post #5

I lived in HK 2018-2020, leaving around the passage of the “national security law”. I think HK is a perfect case study of a line of fallacious thinking popular among westerners: the idea that peaceful protesting or rule-abiding political opposition is generally effective. This is wrong for at least two reasons. The first mistake is failing to recognize that many governments (case in point) are not nearly as vulnerabl…

Question to wyager or anyone else about that second point: what are some examples of political changes that people think were caused by protests, but in reality were already in development before the protest started? Also, who are the best-known advocates for this idea? If the answer is "I, wyager, came up with it", that's totally fine, I'm just curious if the concept has an interesting history.

Possibly Ghandi and India's independence? I would expect if British were still a major global force after WWII and were willing to project it, there would have to be a (successful) regular war for independence.

This can be probably applied on a lot of other former colonies.

Also, former Czechoslovakia in 1989 - the loss of communism. A lot of people back there think mass peaceful protests finished the era. But the fact is, the army declared 100% support of ruling communist party, and they would go with tanks to major cities if ordered and crushed the crowds. After shooting would start, there wouldn't be protests anymore, possibly civil war but highly asymmetric since civilians were not largely armed).

The reality is, eastern bloc was disintegrating due to weakening Soviet influence and its own incoming dissolution. This was in place for last 5 years and top folks knew it (albeit news blocked it all for common citizens to keep things quiet). Once the puppets lost the puppeteer, they didn't feel so confident (which is great, no need for another Yugoslavia back home).

Re: HK media erase their archives amid rising arrests

#194

Post by dumb1224 »

wyager wrote: post #5

I lived in HK 2018-2020, leaving around the passage of the “national security law”. I think HK is a perfect case study of a line of fallacious thinking popular among westerners: the idea that peaceful protesting or rule-abiding political opposition is generally effective. This is wrong for at least two reasons. The first mistake is failing to recognize that many governments (case in point) are not nearly as vulnerabl…

I'm wondering why most of the comments here are not discussing the content of the article but rather the general HK protest.

Most of people in China understand the value of rule of law. And we never deny that the environment there is far from any democratic western society. But if you read the article and are the readers of the mentioned media outlets you would agree a bit that those are a little dubious (Post852, Winandmac Media etc, Apple Daily included). It's definitely not good to have a sweeping ban, but pretending all non-mainland chinese media is pro democracy and liberal values and not populist (sometimes provocative and radicalised) to attract viewers is a little naive in my humble opinion.

Re: HK media erase their archives amid rising arrests

#195

Post by orwin »

pydry wrote: post #130
nine_k wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I remember a good thought experiment. Gandhi's peaceful protests were successful because they impressed the British public via free press, and the public opinion affected the British government. Now imagine that instead of post-war British, the colonial regime were held by their contemporary Stalin. How much would a peaceful protest achieve?

There were also violent protests in India. It does seem like opposing nonviolent and violent factions who reject each other works better than just one. Northern Ireland, Malcolm X/MLK, etc.

Interesting point of view, never thought about the irish liberation, even though it was a recent development.

My opinion is that the fear of marxism permeating the civil right movement (especially the BPP) and starting to reach the Latino and disfavored white people (the "rainbow movement" if i remember correctly) did strike fear into the US government (hence the assassination of Fred Hampton, who really started this). This fear allowed to Civil right movement to be successful, because ethnic tension, while useful to exploit a minority, is not worth the danger to the social order.

Re: HK media erase their archives amid rising arrests

#196

Post by dumb1224 »

csomar wrote: post #187
wyager wrote: post #5

I lived in HK 2018-2020, leaving around the passage of the “national security law”. I think HK is a perfect case study of a line of fallacious thinking popular among westerners: the idea that peaceful protesting or rule-abiding political opposition is generally effective. This is wrong for at least two reasons. The first mistake is failing to recognize that many governments (case in point) are not nearly as vulnerabl…

> the idea that peaceful protesting or rule-abiding political opposition is generally effective. The protest itself is not effective, or at least doesn't change the current day order. But it signals an important opposition to a certain rule that a smart politician should pick up. > The first mistake is failing to recognize that many governments (case in point) are not nearly as vulnerable to bad PR, so generating a b…

>Democratically, independent and small countries like New Zealand are only possible today because of the world order the US has placed. Otherwise, there is nothing stopping China from walking to New Zealand and declaring it New China.

This sounds a bit outlandish to me. I respect what your sub message might be but in real world scenario it's quite exaggerated.

Re: HK media erase their archives amid rising arrests

#197

Post by csomar »

dumb1224 wrote: post #196
csomar wrote: post #187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the idea that peaceful protesting or rule-abiding political opposition is generally effective. The protest itself is not effective, or at least doesn't change the current day order. But it signals an important opposition to a certain rule that a smart politician should pick up. > The first mistake is failing to recognize that many governments (case in point) are not nearly as vulnerable to bad PR, so generating a b…

>Democratically, independent and small countries like New Zealand are only possible today because of the world order the US has placed. Otherwise, there is nothing stopping China from walking to New Zealand and declaring it New China. This sounds a bit outlandish to me. I respect what your sub message might be but in real world scenario it's quite exaggerated.

Before World War II that was what the world was about for most of its history. Big empires expanding further. Smaller city-states existed through complex diplomatic relations. If they didn't have these, all odds are off.

Re: HK media erase their archives amid rising arrests

#198

Post by strogonoff »

Bayart wrote: post #184
inglor_cz wrote: post #178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Geographical influences do exist, but the exceptions are quite significant. Britain was once considered a backward periphery of Europe. Japan is so geographically peripheral that it could successfully close itself off the rest of the world for 250 years. On the other hand, there is no Yemeni/Somali equivalent of Singapore even though a lot of the world traffic must pass around them. Gibraltar is rich, but Spanish And…

There are obviously legal and cultural variables allowing for the geography to be leveraged, as @iheartlife fairly pointed out. But you still need something to leverage. Distance from population centers matters, trading routes matter, topography matters immensely as well. Britain rose in conjunction with Trans-Atlantic trade. And so did Japan with Trans-Pacific trade and the development of the American West coast. HK…

Previously significant, geographical constraints matter less in today’s globally connected world. Arguably, becoming more important in relative terms are mindset, creative and strategic thinking, willingness to work both smart and hard—and those would be in abundance.

Admittedly, Hong Kong benefitted a lot from being the convenient middle ground where major deals between entities in mainland China and other countries could happen. However, it can also be argued that meeting in person to shake hands might not remain a given going forward.

Re: HK media erase their archives amid rising arrests

#199

Post by boomboomsubban »

dillondoyle wrote: post #47
boomboomsubban wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't buy the argument that economic sanctions/boycotts lead to overthrown governments, but I'll assume it does. The result of that strategy would be crippling poverty for hundreds of millions of people, with results likely to last for decades.

On the other hand opening up economically to China didn't bring the Democracy we envisioned either.

Nobody really envisioned it would, people just wanted an excuse to interact with China so soon after the second red scare.

Re: HK media erase their archives amid rising arrests

#200

Post by smcl »

sumedh wrote: post #123
strogonoff wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I like the idea floated by an acquaintance of mine, which sounds more or less like “the British could just give us some island they don’t need, and we’d build another city there”.

> the British could just give us some island they don’t need What about the people who are already living on that island, what if they dont want foreigners?

It wouldn't be the first time a local population were forcibly evicted from a British colonial possession and a bunch of foreign nationals moved in: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diego_Garcia
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