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The Smartest Man in Europe Is Very Cautious

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Re: The Smartest Man in Europe Is Very Cautious

#61

Post by oelewapperke »

yequalsx wrote: post #57
praptak wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Goedel's theorem is not about nonexistance of foundation in mathematics, it's about existence of true but nonproveable statements in every nontrivial formal system. One could imagine a hypothetical stronger result - maybe every nontrivial set of axioms can actually derive p^(not p)?

Provided the axiom set is recursively enumerable. The second order Peano axioms for the natural numbers are complete.

Euhm ... sorry to doubt you here, but it does seem like you're flat-out wrong. Second-order peano arithmetic contains all the axioms you'd need for Godel's proof ...

And frankly, though not 100% proved (yet?), it seems to me very clear that any numbering and arithmetic system that contains any form of infinity is doomed to be incomplete.

So the only useful arithmetical fields that escape Godel are Zn.

Re: The Smartest Man in Europe Is Very Cautious

#62

Post by kahawe »

TheSkeptic wrote: post #10

After pointing out that "The central bankers throughout the world have lost touch with reality" and discussing the messes that have been created in large part by inept bureaucrats, The Smartest Man in Europe dismisses all of the problems brewing in China with a naive "the authorities will figure out solutions to solve them." Anyone who truly believes that the "authorities" in China are any more capable than the "auth…

> Anyone who truly believes that the "authorities" in China are any more capable than the "authorities" outside of China isn't very smart at all.

For the last 50-60 years, they have proven very capable of keeping 1.3 billion people under a communist regime that arguably lacks most of our understanding of constitutional legality, considering how they came into power through the "War of Liberation" and considering the lack of human rights.

Re: The Smartest Man in Europe Is Very Cautious

#63

Post by TheSkeptic »

kahawe wrote: post #62
TheSkeptic wrote: post #10

After pointing out that "The central bankers throughout the world have lost touch with reality" and discussing the messes that have been created in large part by inept bureaucrats, The Smartest Man in Europe dismisses all of the problems brewing in China with a naive "the authorities will figure out solutions to solve them." Anyone who truly believes that the "authorities" in China are any more capable than the "auth…

> Anyone who truly believes that the "authorities" in China are any more capable than the "authorities" outside of China isn't very smart at all. For the last 50-60 years, they have proven very capable of keeping 1.3 billion people under a communist regime that arguably lacks most of our understanding of constitutional legality, considering how they came into power through the "War of Liberation" and considering the…

The challenge for the Chinese leadership is not how to keep the Chinese people under a Communist regime, but how to keep them well fed (literally and figuratively). The game of politics is far more forgiving than the laws of economics.

Re: The Smartest Man in Europe Is Very Cautious

#64

Post by TheSkeptic »

CamperBob wrote: post #35
TheSkeptic wrote: post #10

After pointing out that "The central bankers throughout the world have lost touch with reality" and discussing the messes that have been created in large part by inept bureaucrats, The Smartest Man in Europe dismisses all of the problems brewing in China with a naive "the authorities will figure out solutions to solve them." Anyone who truly believes that the "authorities" in China are any more capable than the "auth…

Anyone who truly believes that the "authorities" in China are any more capable than the "authorities" outside of China isn't very smart at all. A representative sample of China's Politburo: Hu Jintao, 62, president of the People's Republic of China, graduate of Tsinghua University, Beijing, department of water conservancy engineering. Huang Ju, 66, graduate of Tsinghua University, department of electrical engineering…

The problem is not the former professions of the bureaucrats, but rather the fact that individuals can write the words "my money's on the government" truly believing them.

Re: The Smartest Man in Europe Is Very Cautious

#65

Post by TheSkeptic »

roel_v wrote: post #28
wisty wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They aren't more capable, but at least they are able to take responsibility. Banks will be nationalized the minute they look shaky. Local governments will be recapitalized, and the leaders might get punished. But there won't be as bad a crisis, because someone will foot the bill. OK, it will cause a moral hazard. There will be a big need to reform. But there already is a big need to reform. And I think there's alread…

What are you talking about? Banks already are 'nationalized' for all intents and purposes (rather, they've always been under central leadership). And that's exactly the core problem with the debts owned by Chinese banks comes from .

Bingo. It's truly amazing that after all the world has seen in the past several years, many fail to recognize a house of cards when they see one.

Re: The Smartest Man in Europe Is Very Cautious

#66

Post by TheSkeptic »

trb wrote: post #15
TheSkeptic wrote: post #10

After pointing out that "The central bankers throughout the world have lost touch with reality" and discussing the messes that have been created in large part by inept bureaucrats, The Smartest Man in Europe dismisses all of the problems brewing in China with a naive "the authorities will figure out solutions to solve them." Anyone who truly believes that the "authorities" in China are any more capable than the "auth…

Maybe not capable, but surely more focused? As far as I know there are no elections that change the top leadership every few years. This way they have a larger interest in planning beyond their political term and the private industry has less influence through campaign contributions. But I might be wrong, I'm way out of my comfort zone here.

In China, "private industry" doesn't truly exist in many industries. To do business, you need to be politically connected to some degree. In other words, campaign contributions are unnecessary; the state and private industry are already married.

Re: The Smartest Man in Europe Is Very Cautious

#67

Post by TheSkeptic »

azza-bazoo wrote: post #29
stretchwithme wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Seems like what they say about China echos what they used to say about Japan 20-25 years ago. And Japan kept on rising happily forever after.

Um, no. Japan's economy has been stagnant for close to twenty years now. China's economy has plenty of growth left in it. Although you're right that much of the scared-of-China crowd are just people who've transplanted their fears away from Japan.

I think you missed the poster's obvious sarcasm.

As for "China's economy has plenty of growth left in it": the issue is not the amount of growth, but the source and quality of the growth.

Re: The Smartest Man in Europe Is Very Cautious

#68

Post by azza-bazoo »

TheSkeptic wrote: post #67
azza-bazoo wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Um, no. Japan's economy has been stagnant for close to twenty years now. China's economy has plenty of growth left in it. Although you're right that much of the scared-of-China crowd are just people who've transplanted their fears away from Japan.

I think you missed the poster's obvious sarcasm. As for "China's economy has plenty of growth left in it": the issue is not the amount of growth, but the source and quality of the growth.

Sure, 'twas obvious sarcasm, my bad. But there are good reasons for China's economy to grow sustainably for some time yet (emerging middle class, manufacturing going more high-tech, etc). They have major structural problems too, but it's not all doom-and-gloom like Japan is/was.

Re: The Smartest Man in Europe Is Very Cautious

#69

Post by ldar15 »

buff-a wrote: post #20
mmaunder wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's a school of thought that blames the gold standard for the great depression. The French accumulated massive amounts of gold between 1928 and 1932 and some scholars say the global deflationary effects of Bank of France's policy during this time caused the great depression. The gold standard also ties money supply to gold production which is a little like tying fed policy to the quarterly flip of a coin. For exa…

Many problems were solved with our departure from the gold standard Such as having to give the Saudis, and now the Chinese, all our gold. Instead we give them paper, and they then reinvest that paper in: * internet companies * enron * property * banks

And now, governments! http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2011/07/15/the-horrify...

Fancy.

Re: The Smartest Man in Europe Is Very Cautious

#70

Post by base »

nhaehnle wrote: post #36
stretchwithme wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The gold standard was not the cause of the Great Depression; the collapse of the investment bubble created by the Federal Reserve, along with the interruption of international trade by the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act caused the initial problem. Subsequent interference in the economy by both Hoover and FDR extended the problems. The gold standard merely prevented the government from inflating away the dollar and using inf…

It's not that simple. The gold standard basically established an international monetary union, similar to the Euro today. In such a setting, long-term trade imbalances cannot be balanced out by exchange rate adjustments, so there is a very real danger that countries are drained of money by running net imports in the long term. While this then prevents the country from net importing even more - which is only fair - it…

Starting a new currency is only an option if they restructure also the debt. Having a new currency and owing the money in euros won't help much.
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