Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Shorting Bitcoin

tbray.org

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

201–210 of 334 posts

Re: Shorting Bitcoin

#201

Post by foolmeonce »

panarky wrote: post #91
lordnacho wrote: post #59

Derivatives guy here. Perfectly fine opinion, but two issues. Why now? This is a general investing issue. Trading costs money, holding a put costs money, so why will the market do what you think in this time frame? Why are the puts cheap? This could be substantiated with some numbers, esp implied volatility. Are they cheap vs history? I don't know, but the reasoning should show why you think so. Note I'm not looking…

Since he bought his puts on 6/26, BTC is up 9.5%, MSTR is up 9.9% and COIN is up 13.5%. He's already pretty deep underwater.

If you are betting something will tank then you don't time the market to get to put at the best price. Buying these puts either pays out a lot if there is a giant dive before they expire or is a cost to cover that time period.

Re: Shorting Bitcoin

#202

Post by haasted »

colordrops wrote: post #76
xvector wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thankfully most cryptos are moving to proof-of-stake.

Is proof-of-stake a proven technology yet though? Has it been shown to function without loopholes or exploits?

It's in production on several chains now. A few examples are Cosmos hub (cosmos.network), Avalanche (www.avax.network), Tezos (tezos.com) and Solana (solana.com).

Re: Shorting Bitcoin

#203

Post by wraptile »

philjohn wrote: post #177
djhworld wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Think about this: banks are CLOSED 77% of the time! Need to send a wire? 3/4 times bank will be closed Physical branches, sure, but I don't know of any online service that has ever closed, in the UK at least... We can send payments to other banks and they arrive almost instantly (or within 2 hours) any day of the week. For free. This is why I wasn't that impressed when US friends were excited about instant transact…

And with companies like Wise (previously trasnferwise) I can convert a USD balance into GBP in seconds, and then withdraw to a UK bank in a few more seconds.

That's not true everywhere. My transferwise from EU to Asia takes a good week to arrive and still costs more than Bitcoin and significantly more than any altcoin or lightning network.

Re: Shorting Bitcoin

#204

Post by rglullis »

gregopet wrote: post #102
xvector wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thankfully most cryptos are moving to proof-of-stake.

Proof-of-stake is basically an oligarchy though, those with funds call the shots, similar to the current mainstream system but without any of the checks and balances (they will be developed for crypto, too, in time, but at a high price for the early small adopters). Another example of crypto not really being that special in the end, if it wants mass adoption - you can ignore the boring realities as long as it's just…

> those with funds call the shots

Look at the distribution curve of people and their funds that can be put at stake and compare with the people with access to cheap energy and capital to operate a mining rig, then come back to tell me which one is the real oligarchy.

Re: Shorting Bitcoin

#205

Post by noch »

cocktailpeanuts wrote: post #4

If BTC price doesn't recover soon and falls further, Microstrategy is what will kill BTC. I don't know why BTC investors are so crazy about Microstrategy buying BTC (This would have never happened back in the early days of Bitcoin), but if BTC price goes down further, Microstrategy will be forced to sell their BTC by their shareholders. Otherwise the Microstrategy stock itself will crash. Also when Microstrategy lose…

>> if BTC price goes down further, Microstrategy will be forced to sell their BTC by their shareholders.

Your assumptions about capital structure are likely wrong here. Consider:

Microstrategy has its Bitcoin holdings in a subsidiary, Macrostrategy LLC. https://www.microstrategy.com/en/investor-relations/press/mi...

---

> 2) Bond Covenants

> - No covenants -- no one can force a sale of $BTC

> - $MSTR is allowed to raise more debt at the unrestricted BTC co which would be structurally senior to the $3.4B (so original convertible bond holders are potentially getting primed).

>This $MSTR secured bond is just a standard secured bond that has very little to do with $BTC.

> Bondholders basically sold a call option (for 6.125% yield) and a put option... MSTR walks away with a ton of upside optionality, and it has a marginal impact on #Bitcoin

(https://twitter.com/jdorman81/status/1403068157867274253)

---

> [5/N] Their main business makes about ~50M in net profit - basically, Saylor makes enough money to cover the annual interest by 10X.

> - This means that from now till 2025 at least, Saylor CANNOT be liquidated as long as he pays the interest on the 0.75% 2025 bond.

> [6/N] But oh no! what if the board forces saylor to sell?

> Saylor himself owns 25% of microstrategy but he also owns the majority of Class B shares which have 10x voting power giving him 72% of the voting power. I.E Saylor CANNOT be forced by anybody to sell.

> [8/N] In conclusion

> 1. The latest round of purchase will not have the ability to liquidate his previous holdings

> 2. The interest payment on his bonds CANNOT liquidate him

> 3. Nobody has the power to force him to sell. At All.

(https://twitter.com/hodlKRYPTONITE/status/140216585565644800...)

---

In what scenario could Microstrategy's liabilities exceed its assets in 2025? https://twitter.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1385644214092898308?s...

Re: Shorting Bitcoin

#206

Post by wraptile »

I seriously don't understand "bitcoin has no tech" argument.

These people must be very priviledged and stationary if they never encountered issues with current banking systems. At some places transfering money at local level takes ages and international banking is almost always a complete an utter joke.

I've been waiting for over a month for a new debit card from Revolut while using their highest subscription tier and that's supposed to be the new hip, cool kids bank. It often takes days to move money between countries - even miniscule amounts that should be immune. Even our debit cards are region locked and extremely confusing, your VISA doesn't work the same everywhere. It's just complete and utter chaos if your finances are just slight bit out of the norm.

Even if bitcoin is not the holy grail - it's still extremely useful piece of technology for many of us.

Re: Shorting Bitcoin

#207

Post by peteretep »

wraptile wrote: post #203
philjohn wrote: post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And with companies like Wise (previously trasnferwise) I can convert a USD balance into GBP in seconds, and then withdraw to a UK bank in a few more seconds.

That's not true everywhere. My transferwise from EU to Asia takes a good week to arrive and still costs more than Bitcoin and significantly more than any altcoin or lightning network.

Where are you importing to?! To Thailand, Philippines and Indonesia I’ve never had anything take more than 24hrs

Re: Shorting Bitcoin

#208

Post by Sammi »

omgWhyPlease wrote: post #192
lordnacho wrote: post #59

Derivatives guy here. Perfectly fine opinion, but two issues. Why now? This is a general investing issue. Trading costs money, holding a put costs money, so why will the market do what you think in this time frame? Why are the puts cheap? This could be substantiated with some numbers, esp implied volatility. Are they cheap vs history? I don't know, but the reasoning should show why you think so. Note I'm not looking…

“I may be early but I’m not wrong” “It’s the same thing Michael!” Best big short quote.

Put options have a time limit. So being early means you loose the money you used to buy the put.

So yeah it is the same thing.

And Michael Burry was a lucky mother effer that he managed to keep his put on all the way until it finally happened.

Re: Shorting Bitcoin

#209

Post by peteretep »

anthony_barker wrote: post #189
philjohn wrote: post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And with companies like Wise (previously trasnferwise) I can convert a USD balance into GBP in seconds, and then withdraw to a UK bank in a few more seconds.

Send money to chile and wise charges 5-8%. They mostly only good in OECD countries. Plus they don't support sending money out of hundreds of countries. I figured that they changed their name to wise as their transfer business was not profitable in anticipation of their ipo. People who don't get crypto typically live in countries with not corrupt or inept government officials.

I don’t believe conversion from fiat in home country + transfer fees + conversion to fiat again in Chile costs less than 5-8% except for very large transfers.

Re: Shorting Bitcoin

#210

Post by wraptile »

gregopet wrote: post #102
xvector wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thankfully most cryptos are moving to proof-of-stake.

Proof-of-stake is basically an oligarchy though, those with funds call the shots, similar to the current mainstream system but without any of the checks and balances (they will be developed for crypto, too, in time, but at a high price for the early small adopters). Another example of crypto not really being that special in the end, if it wants mass adoption - you can ignore the boring realities as long as it's just…

> Proof-of-stake is basically an oligarchy though, those with funds call the shots

How is it different from proof of work? People with access to ASIC miners and cheap electricity call the shots, guess who those people are?

Proof is stake actually more fair since you cannot move your investment in the network - you are locked-in and need the network to succeed to not lose your position. With proof of work you can switch all of your investments to a different network at the snap of your fingers.

Proof of stake is naturally designed to produce benevolent leaders since their success is directly tied to the success of the network.

Post reply on HN