191–200 of 334 posts
Puts are fine but the swings will often get you liquidated if you use too much leverage. I personally wouldn't bet against Bitcoin knowing the state of the wider market (stocks at all time highs, inflation fears but also Fed rate hike fears). If inflation fears kick into high gear it could be enough to push BTC back to retest the ATH
Derivatives guy here. Perfectly fine opinion, but two issues. Why now? This is a general investing issue. Trading costs money, holding a put costs money, so why will the market do what you think in this time frame? Why are the puts cheap? This could be substantiated with some numbers, esp implied volatility. Are they cheap vs history? I don't know, but the reasoning should show why you think so. Note I'm not looking…
Best big short quote.
Derivatives guy here. Perfectly fine opinion, but two issues. Why now? This is a general investing issue. Trading costs money, holding a put costs money, so why will the market do what you think in this time frame? Why are the puts cheap? This could be substantiated with some numbers, esp implied volatility. Are they cheap vs history? I don't know, but the reasoning should show why you think so. Note I'm not looking…
“I may be early but I’m not wrong” “It’s the same thing Michael!” Best big short quote.
Derivatives guy here. Perfectly fine opinion, but two issues. Why now? This is a general investing issue. Trading costs money, holding a put costs money, so why will the market do what you think in this time frame? Why are the puts cheap? This could be substantiated with some numbers, esp implied volatility. Are they cheap vs history? I don't know, but the reasoning should show why you think so. Note I'm not looking…
Except if you believe, as the author does, that the entire market is just scams and insider manipulation there is no meaning to be gleaned from any of the numbers. If it's all a sham it will blow up at some point, it's just a question of when, but that will almost certainly be precipitated by some unpredictable external event.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
That’s a very bad thesis to trade options on. The author believes that BTC is overvalued, but if you look at their reasons for believing it’s overvalued, some of them could have applied to BTC at any point in time over the past several years, and the rest could have applied to BTC and any point in time since it’s creation. By buying puts on bitcoin (derivatives), they’re not only betting that they’re correct, but als…
Bitcoin, like tesla stock is better predicted by treating it as a religion than a rational investment. So how long are people going to believe a kid who said a god knocked her up to avoid getting stoned?
I love this sort of thing. He’s making a bet, explains his reasoning, and does it in the open! That’s great. I disagree that there’s no tech here. IMO public ledgers that never sleep are far superior(thanks to the hard work of many people over the past decade), and their advantage over retail banking will only increase. My online banks keep getting worse, crypto keeps getting better. Think about this: banks are CLOSE…
Eh. Brazil (the government! same one that botched the response to Covid) instituted an universal mechanism to wire any amount of money instantly for free — there goes your use case, not to mention Venmo, etc. Of note: INSTANTLY. You can pay a random handyman you need in an emergency, or split bar tabs, or pay out-of-pocket expenses with doctors, whatever. I use it in lieu of credit cards for e-commerce too. https://w…
With Bitcoin you instead rely on the intrinsic properties of the protocol. No ifs or buts.
IMO, in order (and happy to be proven wrong, I am curious what others think):
1. I'm not sure why this would matter. Wouldn't that mean that the insiders have all the incentive to sell the bitcoins they own, even in time – so they can make some "real" money? Wouldn't the price have crashed / gone to zero so many times until now? (there were plenty of opportunities to sell). There is def speculation in BTC, I am not denying that.
2. This is incorrect. Some (most?) people view BTC as a store of value, so in essence, transactions can be few and far between. The adage here is "transaction costs too high? – it means you're moving too little BTC". The Lightning network does play a role in transaction costs.
3. This might a good point. I don't know enough about Tether's use but I have heard this argument raised before.
4. Agree with author, but this point is rather vague. It could go either way. Not sure if regulation is as much of a silver bullet as he makes it out to seem.
5. This is a corollary to the above 2 points, so not really a different argument.
6. Is this the main argument? The author does seem to be an environmentalist - but there are plenty of arguments against this point too. I personally disagree with this point.
7. Again, not really a point, just a rant on what the author thinks are the people that own BTC. At this point he's just insulting BTC holders really, so you know, pyramid of argument (attack the argument not the person etc.) makes me discard this point entirely.
Again, curious what others think, lots of smart people here.
If BTC price doesn't recover soon and falls further, Microstrategy is what will kill BTC. I don't know why BTC investors are so crazy about Microstrategy buying BTC (This would have never happened back in the early days of Bitcoin), but if BTC price goes down further, Microstrategy will be forced to sell their BTC by their shareholders. Otherwise the Microstrategy stock itself will crash. Also when Microstrategy lose…
I love this sort of thing. He’s making a bet, explains his reasoning, and does it in the open! That’s great. I disagree that there’s no tech here. IMO public ledgers that never sleep are far superior(thanks to the hard work of many people over the past decade), and their advantage over retail banking will only increase. My online banks keep getting worse, crypto keeps getting better. Think about this: banks are CLOSE…
Need to send a wire? Locally (within the same currency) I can send 24/7 with an average time to hit the other persons bank account of around 5 seconds - cost is $0. No blockchain involved just old fashioned brick and mortar banks.
Perhaps you need to change banks.