So I will probably soon buy more Bitcoin as I believe the price will in the long run go up. Tether (USDT) is a huge liability that could cause a temporary crash. But at the same time you see some regulation changing that e.g. allows banks to be custodians for crypto-currencies. In my opinion this is huge. It means that eventually institutional investors can buy Bitcoin and other cryptos without having to worry about…
Shorting Bitcoin
131–140 of 334 posts
Re: Shorting Bitcoin
#132Earlier quoted context omitted.
My online banks keep getting worse, crypto keeps getting better. That resonates with me after my bank shut down my ability to transfer money (via eTransfer) because I hit their arbitrary $20,000 limit for the month. I had to wait THREE weeks before I could send another transfer.
It's also worth reflecting on the fact that banking being terrible is predominantly an American problem among the developed nations. Even in 3rd world countries, banking is pretty awesome. Checks have been obsolete for decades, any kind of money transfer takes around 5 seconds after you press send from your bank's app, even during weekends and between different banks. Transfer limits are generally settable from the a…
There are worse countries to manage your finances in than the US by the way. Lebanon is in the midst of a terrible bank and currency crises. People literally are not allowed to take money from the bank. This happens repeatedly throughout history.
Re: Shorting Bitcoin
#133Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think this is a good strategy if you look at the fundamentals. But the thing that's been making BTC work isn't the market or the technology, it's the behavior of other people. That's something that isn't taken into account in his list of justifications. People are behaving 'irrationally' and it's been working over and over again. It's created throngs of people who are believers and nothing will change their minds.…
Its been what? 10 years? That's not a huge amount of time to conclude people will never change their mind and btc will go to the moon forever.
There is a subset of true believers who will hold bitcoin in their portfolio's forever because they value the self sovereignty and globally accessible wealth it provides.
Even the bulls believe that we'll eventually reach a steady state where hyper growth stops and it starts behaving more like gold, tracking inflation and economic growth.
Re: Shorting Bitcoin
#134Earlier quoted context omitted.
... or fractional reserve banking
No, no, no. Cryptocurrency fans keep making that up. In fractional reserve banking, the bank uses deposits to make loans. The loans have collateral behind them, often real estate. There are real assets backing the loans. That's not how Tether works. Tether is supposedly invested in "commercial paper", but that has to be fake. If they were really buying commercial paper, they'd be in the top 10 commercial paper buyers…
Re: Shorting Bitcoin
#135> high proportion of all Bitcoins are owned by insiders
same as any other asset in the world, think pareto distribution - vast majority is owned by few entities. so since this point applies to everything pretty much equally - it can be discarded.
> Bitcoin is not usable as a currency because the transaction costs and latency are both too high. (Yes, I know about the Lightning network.)
mentions the working solution but chooses to ignore it without reason. not the best strategy in investing.
> There are repeated allegations that Tethers are created out of thin air to prop up the price of Bitcoin
prophecies of Tether collapse have been around so long, even broken clock theory proponents are getting grey in their hair waiting for anything to happen. but more importantly - if tethers are printed without backing, it doesn't mean there isn't demand for BTC. if BTC were bought with USDT, somebody in the world wanted those BTC and somebody else is stuck with USDT. what do you think happens when Tether collpases and USDT starts trading at discount, what do you think people will be dumping their USDT for?
> much of the trading is seriously sketchy, whether that’s based on ad-hoc Tether creation, wash trading, or other well-known pump/dump schemes
best argument not to short bitcoin. highly volatile asset will either trigger your stop-loss during a random 5-minute fluctuation or leave you devastated with debts orders of magnitude larger than your original investment if you choose full-idiot strategy of shorting without stop-loss.
> The net effect is that money flows in from, in effect, suckers and rubes, then into the pockets of the insiders.
again, applies to literally everything.
> Bitcoin’s Byzantine-generals solution, based on proof-of-waste, is unacceptable in the face of the oncoming climate crisis.
in fact absolutely opposite is true. bitcoin mining is the most green industry around and is driving development of green energy capacity faster than anything else. burning coal or oil for mining is expensive even politically (see china driving away all the miners, citing environmental concerns even though the real reason is inability to control flight of capital).
to all people concerned about bitcoin's environmental impact: in the end, it's not your business what i do with the energy i purchase on a market, if you actually cared about the environment - you'd direct your anger at dirty energy producers, go do something useful with your lives instead of faking rage for virtue signalling.
> Since Bitcoin has no practical uses
absolutely false belief in my opinion.
> Puts are pretty cheap. If I’m totally wrong and Bitcoin is still sailing along at the end of 2021, I’ll be annoyed but not impoverished. If it crashes I’ll be sad for the unfortunates who lost their stakes, and entirely unsympathetic to the insider community
the author didn't cover another possible scenario: if bitcoin blows up the other direction, the author loses 100% of their investment (if they are smart) or unlimited amount of money (if they are stupid).
so yeah, the entire belief set is wrong and author is most likely going to lose money unless they get very lucky.
Re: Shorting Bitcoin
#136Earlier quoted context omitted.
... or fractional reserve banking
No, no, no. Cryptocurrency fans keep making that up. In fractional reserve banking, the bank uses deposits to make loans. The loans have collateral behind them, often real estate. There are real assets backing the loans. That's not how Tether works. Tether is supposedly invested in "commercial paper", but that has to be fake. If they were really buying commercial paper, they'd be in the top 10 commercial paper buyers…
Re: Shorting Bitcoin
#137I'm of two minds. Cryptocurrency is a beautiful technology. But the current prices have absolutely world-changing speculation already priced in. I think the price is largely meaningless, and cryptocurrencies are likely to crash hard, but at the same time, I don't really care, because the price is not the beautiful thing about crypto. Crypto achieved its purpose as envisioned by the cypherpunks that created it, the mo…
> Cryptocurrency is a beautiful technology On the surface, ya, but the proof-of-waste at its centre should be reason enough to consider the technology more harmful than not.
sorry, energy usage is great and we should be doing more of it. energy production can be bad, so go rage at dirty energy producers.
Edit: oh and by the way, you made it very obvious that you're biased and can't think straight on this topic by using the term "proof of waste", there is literally zero waste in proof of work.
Re: Shorting Bitcoin
#138Earlier quoted context omitted.
No, no, no. Cryptocurrency fans keep making that up. In fractional reserve banking, the bank uses deposits to make loans. The loans have collateral behind them, often real estate. There are real assets backing the loans. That's not how Tether works. Tether is supposedly invested in "commercial paper", but that has to be fake. If they were really buying commercial paper, they'd be in the top 10 commercial paper buyers…
>The loans have collateral behind them, often real estate. There's still an assumption that the real estate can be liquidated 1:1 for the loan value, though. I think the difference is not so much the collateral, but the insurance.
Re: Shorting Bitcoin
#139I love this sort of thing. He’s making a bet, explains his reasoning, and does it in the open! That’s great. I disagree that there’s no tech here. IMO public ledgers that never sleep are far superior(thanks to the hard work of many people over the past decade), and their advantage over retail banking will only increase. My online banks keep getting worse, crypto keeps getting better. Think about this: banks are CLOSE…
My online banks keep getting worse, crypto keeps getting better. That resonates with me after my bank shut down my ability to transfer money (via eTransfer) because I hit their arbitrary $20,000 limit for the month. I had to wait THREE weeks before I could send another transfer.
Bitcoin doesn't provide any protections in the case of your money being stolen, so it doesn't impose any limits.
Depends what you prioritise I suppose.
Re: Shorting Bitcoin
#140I love this sort of thing. He’s making a bet, explains his reasoning, and does it in the open! That’s great. I disagree that there’s no tech here. IMO public ledgers that never sleep are far superior(thanks to the hard work of many people over the past decade), and their advantage over retail banking will only increase. My online banks keep getting worse, crypto keeps getting better. Think about this: banks are CLOSE…
Of note: INSTANTLY. You can pay a random handyman you need in an emergency, or split bar tabs, or pay out-of-pocket expenses with doctors, whatever. I use it in lieu of credit cards for e-commerce too.
https://www.paymentsjournal.com/why-pix-is-the-revolution-of...
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pix_(electronic_payment_syst...