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Shorting Bitcoin

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11–20 of 334 posts

Re: Shorting Bitcoin

#11
Reminds me of the time when TSLA MCap got bigger than Volkswagen + BMW + Daimler + a few othere and I bought OTM puts.

This was back when TSLA was at 160$ (800$ pre-split)

Re: Shorting Bitcoin

#12
post #7

If BTC price doesn't recover soon and falls further, Microstrategy is what will kill BTC. I don't know why BTC investors are so crazy about Microstrategy buying BTC (This would have never happened back in the early days of Bitcoin), but if BTC price goes down further, Microstrategy will be forced to sell their BTC by their shareholders. Otherwise the Microstrategy stock itself will crash. Also when Microstrategy lose…

If you are a shareholder, why would you sell on a loss?

because $MSTR will go to $0 a share if BTC loses another 50%

Re: Shorting Bitcoin

#13
FTA: "I’ve repeatedly criticized Bitcoin specifically and blockchain in general, on the grounds that I’ve seen no practical real-world applications," and "Bitcoin is not usable as a currency because the transaction costs and latency are both too high. (Yes, I know about the Lightning network.)"

"My best guess is that pretty soon the supply of greater fools runs out." -- He's on to something! This is a pretty funny article that is remarkably lucid.

Re: Shorting Bitcoin

#15

If BTC price doesn't recover soon and falls further, Microstrategy is what will kill BTC. I don't know why BTC investors are so crazy about Microstrategy buying BTC (This would have never happened back in the early days of Bitcoin), but if BTC price goes down further, Microstrategy will be forced to sell their BTC by their shareholders. Otherwise the Microstrategy stock itself will crash. Also when Microstrategy lose…

MicroStrategy is up over 13% today. So the market doesn’t care or they can afford to lose some more on their Bitcoin hedge.

Why would you expect a crypto stock to go down on a day when Crypto was up almost 10%?

Re: Shorting Bitcoin

#16

Reminds me of the time when TSLA MCap got bigger than Volkswagen + BMW + Daimler + a few othere and I bought OTM puts. This was back when TSLA was at 160$ (800$ pre-split)

The difference is Tesla makes cars, good cars, that people can use. Bitcoin makes "investors."

Re: Shorting Bitcoin

#17
post #12
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you are a shareholder, why would you sell on a loss?

because $MSTR will go to $0 a share if BTC loses another 50%

Your answer only rephrases the question. The only way for it to hit $0 is if nobody is willing to buy the stock. This seems unlikely, given that the Bitcoin they're holding, even at 50% of present value, is still worth significantly more than $0.

Re: Shorting Bitcoin

#18
post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

because $MSTR will go to $0 a share if BTC loses another 50%

Your answer only rephrases the question. The only way for it to hit $0 is if nobody is willing to buy the stock. This seems unlikely, given that the Bitcoin they're holding, even at 50% of present value, is still worth significantly more than $0.

The losses from their bitcoin position can exceed their current market cap.

Re: Shorting Bitcoin

#19
I'm of two minds. Cryptocurrency is a beautiful technology. But the current prices have absolutely world-changing speculation already priced in.

I think the price is largely meaningless, and cryptocurrencies are likely to crash hard, but at the same time, I don't really care, because the price is not the beautiful thing about crypto.

Crypto achieved its purpose as envisioned by the cypherpunks that created it, the moment people started using it - for, say, Darknet drug markets: anonymous or pseudonymous exchange of value in a manner that cannot be censored by governments.

Re: Shorting Bitcoin

#20

If BTC price doesn't recover soon and falls further, Microstrategy is what will kill BTC. I don't know why BTC investors are so crazy about Microstrategy buying BTC (This would have never happened back in the early days of Bitcoin), but if BTC price goes down further, Microstrategy will be forced to sell their BTC by their shareholders. Otherwise the Microstrategy stock itself will crash. Also when Microstrategy lose…

Every cycle converts more people, people who will never sell. These are also the same people who will buy hand over fist when the price approaches anything in the ballpark of their cost basis.
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