Earlier quoted context omitted.
> You can't force anything Sounds like you don’t have the right perspective.
Sounds like you enjoy legislating us into police states, to be honest.
Nothing wrong with strong government institutions.
A coronavirus epidemic hit 20k years ago, new study finds
161–170 of 177 posts
Re: A coronavirus epidemic hit 20k years ago, new study finds
#162Re: A coronavirus epidemic hit 20k years ago, new study finds
#163Earlier quoted context omitted.
> If we don’t use the momentum to reduce vaccine rollout times among other things - we failed. I don't think we can use the luck we had with this vaccine to justify risky releases in the future.
The 5-10 year drug development cycle isn’t something that should stay that way forever. It’s incredibly slow and we should change that.
If it's anything like the normal vaccine development cycle, most of that time is consumed by things like writing grant proposals, waiting for grants, convincing a drug company and/or their convincing themselves it's worth taking the risk to try our your drug candidate, etc. COVID-19 vaccine development in the US and U.K. shows what you can do when people are willing to take huge gambles on a candidate ever working out, including starting mass production before Phase III trials produce strong evidence.
The US Operation Warp Speed https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Warp_Speed made a huge bet on Sanofi/GSK's vaccine, which in its first trial did not produce sufficient immunity in elderly, the second set of trials that started earlier this year are very promising so far. Ditto AZ/Oxford which has not applied for an Emergency Use Authorization. Novavax's vaccine also looks very good, but they are getting severely delayed in making an application because supplies for cell culture manufacturing are first going to the Serum Institute of India and AZ for Oxford's vaccine and Janssen, and there are some supplies common with the mRNA vaccines. Trained workers are also in short supply.
Operation Warp Speed is a fantastic success in using the style of the Manhattan Project including paying Pfizer in advance for 100 million doses of BioNTech's vaccine, but so far only 2 of its 5 huge billion dollar plus upfront bets have paid off. Outside of an emergency that would be considered an unacceptable waste of money.
Re: A coronavirus epidemic hit 20k years ago, new study finds
#164For COVID to have an impact on the gene pool, it would have to be killing people within reproductive age. As of February 2021, only 11,000 people in the USA under 45 died of COVID - and most would have been very sick with existing health conditions and unable to reproduce anyway. There are 193,000,000 people in the USA in this age range, so the death risk from COVID is 0.006% COVID is of no threat to young and health…
Hmmm, wonder why this fact based comment is being down-voted.
Re: A coronavirus epidemic hit 20k years ago, new study finds
#165Earlier quoted context omitted.
Sounds like you enjoy legislating us into police states, to be honest.
Nothing wrong with strong government institutions.
There is much wrong when the institutions cease to function for their citizens.
I can't believe this has to be explained to you: Corporations and governments are working against the people every step of the way.
Re: A coronavirus epidemic hit 20k years ago, new study finds
#166I'd love to never hear about another coronavirus again. We went too far prescribing a certain agenda in the last year, and it's time to reflect on that. In my opinion studies and articles like this are doing more to fuel the fear porn than they are at teaching anything substantial.
Well, good luck with that. There have been three coronavirus epidemics in the last 20 years. And probably hundreds at least more throughout human history. And the current one won’t be entirely gone anytime soon.
Epidemics don't need marketing departments, something that is very obviously part of the equation with "the current one."
Re: A coronavirus epidemic hit 20k years ago, new study finds
#167For COVID to have an impact on the gene pool, it would have to be killing people within reproductive age. As of February 2021, only 11,000 people in the USA under 45 died of COVID - and most would have been very sick with existing health conditions and unable to reproduce anyway. There are 193,000,000 people in the USA in this age range, so the death risk from COVID is 0.006% COVID is of no threat to young and health…
Hmmm, wonder why this fact based comment is being down-voted.
Raw data is here, is current as of May 10th: https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/AH-Provisional-COVID-19-Death-Coun...
I haven't looked at it since February, the numbers then were around what ArkanExplorer is saying.
Re: A coronavirus epidemic hit 20k years ago, new study finds
#168Earlier quoted context omitted.
> From what I've read, the possibility is higher than some other random virus popping up at this moment in time. I've read literally nothing credible that suggests that immune escape will ever be complete. There are people who are "concerned" or "worried" about it or will argue that "we can't say" But they're basically the same people who were arguing that the vacccines that we were producing that produced strong neu…
Your logic seems fairly sound as far as the future trajectory of covid-19, if history is a guide. What I've been wondering and I'd put to you is, do you think the T-cell response to the mRNA vaccines / infection will also confer immunity or decrease the severity of MERS? Or other more distantly related wild coronaviruses?
MERS is not a Sarbecovirus, it's a Merbecovirus, so not the same subgenus. They are not similar enough for much to happen, if anything at all.
Re: A coronavirus epidemic hit 20k years ago, new study finds
#169Earlier quoted context omitted.
You were making a good rebuttal until "To wit: Lab Leak Trutherism is of the same cloth as Big Lie election fraudurism, and climate denial, ...". I think we have nothing left to discuss.
And I genuinely can't tell if it's because you're offended that I likened your opinions about a lab leak to other conspiratorial nonsense, or because you believe that other nonsense and don't want to be forced to defend it. Doesn't it strike you as perhaps notable that to people in the more mainstream scientific community, your opinions look like those of a flat earther?
You can show pretty clearly that the earth is round to anyone who's somewhat reasonable and is willing to understand an explanation of the math, but proving that an ancestor of the virus was never in a lab at any time between being in animals 30 years ago and now is pretty hard.
Re: A coronavirus epidemic hit 20k years ago, new study finds
#170Earlier quoted context omitted.
And I genuinely can't tell if it's because you're offended that I likened your opinions about a lab leak to other conspiratorial nonsense, or because you believe that other nonsense and don't want to be forced to defend it. Doesn't it strike you as perhaps notable that to people in the more mainstream scientific community, your opinions look like those of a flat earther?
You can show pretty clearly that the earth is round to anyone who's somewhat reasonable and is willing to understand an explanation of the math, but proving that an ancestor of the virus was never in a lab at any time between being in animals 30 years ago and now is pretty hard.
You would think, but no. In fact flat earthers have explanations for all that stuff. Showing them a globe doesn't work, because the people they trust tell them that that disproof is wrong.
In point of fact, a Lab Leaker might be more somewhat more scientifically literate, but the logical fallacy at work is exactly the same: believing in the truth of a subject simply because it lacks disproof is just plain wrong. And it leads to wrong conclusions.
Anyone looking at the evidence on covid rationally would say that, yes, a lab leak is a possibility. But that a natural virus remains the more likely scenario. Again: there's a pandemic every few years in some species. To date none have been started by scientists.