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A coronavirus epidemic hit 20k years ago, new study finds

nytimes.com

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Re: A coronavirus epidemic hit 20k years ago, new study finds

#91

Post by UncleOxidant »

binarymax wrote: post #29

“It should make us worry,” said David Enard, an evolutionary biologist at the University of Arizona who led the study, which was published on Thursday in the journal Current Biology. “What is going on right now might be going on for generations and generations.” Should it though? Seems like we've survived this many times as a species, and now have the technology to combat it! I'm more optimistic with this information…

Yeah, I didn't quite understand why it should make us worry. We do have a lot more tools at our disposal than people had 20,000 years ago - vaccines, antivirals (in a few years), knowing to social distance, etc.

Re: A coronavirus epidemic hit 20k years ago, new study finds

#92

Post by LocalPCGuy »

lamontcg wrote: post #78
binarymax wrote: post #29

“It should make us worry,” said David Enard, an evolutionary biologist at the University of Arizona who led the study, which was published on Thursday in the journal Current Biology. “What is going on right now might be going on for generations and generations.” Should it though? Seems like we've survived this many times as a species, and now have the technology to combat it! I'm more optimistic with this information…

> Should it though? Fuck no. I'm really tired of these stories. (this is all directed at the author that put that "it should make us worry" quote in the NYT piece, not at any HN poster, but I really need to vent) The 1918 pandemic turned into seasonal influenza one we had enough herd immunity, enough people had T-cells that recognized H1N1 and the virus was forced into making sacrificial choices in order to spread. T…

I generally agree with you (minus the rage) and agree re: being vaccinated at this point means it's pretty much over for individuals and their associates who are also vaccinated.

The only quibble I take is that, while it's likely you (and by proxy, the experts you cite) are correct that we won't go back to square one, it is still a (low) possibility. Probably low enough that it isn't worth concerning yourself with, except to be aware that the possibility is there. And probably slightly higher than the normal chance of a random breakout until we get closer to vaccinated herd immunity worldwide. But I'm not suggesting it should necessarily change any significant behavior of those vaccinated, just something to pay a bit more attention to than normal and be ready to take action if needed (i.e. don't throw away all the masks just yet).

And that said, I really appreciate you including sources and I'm sorry I don't have any handy to back up my statement, but it does come from reading and listening to experts. That said, it's my recollection and summary of that so I'd encourage anyone to take it with that grain of salt.

Re: A coronavirus epidemic hit 20k years ago, new study finds

#93

Post by jacquesm »

UncleOxidant wrote: post #90
breck wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here is the source code, AFAICT: https://github.com/DavidPierreEnard/Gene_Set_Enrichment_Pipe... I've been involved in GWAS before, so have an inkling of what's going on. I love the creativity in this paper. The stuff is super fascinating, but the pipelines are still very primitive—so I encourage programmers to get involved in bioinformatics if you like this stuff! In the future I expect we see work like this accompa…

It's written in Perl.

So?

Re: A coronavirus epidemic hit 20k years ago, new study finds

#94

Post by jacquesm »

UncleOxidant wrote: post #91
binarymax wrote: post #29

“It should make us worry,” said David Enard, an evolutionary biologist at the University of Arizona who led the study, which was published on Thursday in the journal Current Biology. “What is going on right now might be going on for generations and generations.” Should it though? Seems like we've survived this many times as a species, and now have the technology to combat it! I'm more optimistic with this information…

Yeah, I didn't quite understand why it should make us worry. We do have a lot more tools at our disposal than people had 20,000 years ago - vaccines, antivirals (in a few years), knowing to social distance, etc.

Population density, commercial air travel.

Social distancing is something that people even now are loathe to engage in, fortunately more and more people 'get it' but there are still plenty that do not. Arguably that's Darwin at work, but still.

Re: A coronavirus epidemic hit 20k years ago, new study finds

#96

Post by blocked_again »

binarymax wrote: post #29

“It should make us worry,” said David Enard, an evolutionary biologist at the University of Arizona who led the study, which was published on Thursday in the journal Current Biology. “What is going on right now might be going on for generations and generations.” Should it though? Seems like we've survived this many times as a species, and now have the technology to combat it! I'm more optimistic with this information…

Our great ancestors were not doing gain of function research on viruses. If countries continues to do gain of function research on viruses we might not last the next two or three decades. No labs are 100% failproof. And there have been multiple cases of leaks even from the top security BSL4 labs.

Re: A coronavirus epidemic hit 20k years ago, new study finds

#97

Post by UncleOxidant »

jacquesm wrote: post #93
UncleOxidant wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's written in Perl.

So?

I have Perl Traumatic Stress Disorder from too much Perl in the 90s. Just looking at Perl code makes me break out in a cold sweat. I wish I were kidding.

Otherwise, just noted that it was written in Perl.

Re: A coronavirus epidemic hit 20k years ago, new study finds

#98

Post by 99_00 »

binarymax wrote: post #29

“It should make us worry,” said David Enard, an evolutionary biologist at the University of Arizona who led the study, which was published on Thursday in the journal Current Biology. “What is going on right now might be going on for generations and generations.” Should it though? Seems like we've survived this many times as a species, and now have the technology to combat it! I'm more optimistic with this information…

>Should it though?

Yes of course it will. The mainstream narrative is that the virus came from a wet market. Wet markets are still open and there is no discussion about what to do about it. The most basic lessons and precautions are forbidden topics.

Re: A coronavirus epidemic hit 20k years ago, new study finds

#99

Post by jacquesm »

UncleOxidant wrote: post #97
jacquesm wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So?

I have Perl Traumatic Stress Disorder from too much Perl in the 90s. Just looking at Perl code makes me break out in a cold sweat. I wish I were kidding. Otherwise, just noted that it was written in Perl.

Ok. It came across as a value judgement. Personally I don't much care what its written in, executable line noise or anything else as long as practitioners of that particular language do not find anything wrong with it.

Scientists typically don't particularly care about the latest and greatest software development environments and practices, they simply need answers. The best way to deal with that is to help out, I personally think they should be applauded for putting their code out there, which is better than the vast majority. Including CS, for that matter.

Re: A coronavirus epidemic hit 20k years ago, new study finds

#100

Post by jeremyjh »

binarymax wrote: post #29

“It should make us worry,” said David Enard, an evolutionary biologist at the University of Arizona who led the study, which was published on Thursday in the journal Current Biology. “What is going on right now might be going on for generations and generations.” Should it though? Seems like we've survived this many times as a species, and now have the technology to combat it! I'm more optimistic with this information…

> Should it though? Seems like we've survived

Someone survived - but for the mutations to have a selection benefit strong enough to dominate that gene pool there would have to be more people who didn’t survive than did.

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