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Panasonic sells its $3.6B Tesla stake

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Re: Panasonic sells its $3.6B Tesla stake

#91
post #42

Question to anyone more knowledgeable than I am in fiscal or business matters: why did Panasonic invest in a large client? Wasn't it risky? If 2020 had not been kind to Tesla, Panasonic would've been hit twice.

I think it has to do with a battery tech/manufacturing agreement between tesla and Panasonic.

Re: Panasonic sells its $3.6B Tesla stake

#92
post #16

.... making almost $3B in profit. edit: in perpective - they owned about 0.55% of Tesla. Selling their share nets Panasonic a windfall thats worth about 10% of their own $27.7B market cap.

Yeah "dumping" a winning trade isn't dumping. It's taking profits to move onto other investments.

Why would you completely exit a winning trade that you have more insight into than most people since you’re the sole supplier of the primary component in the thing if you thought it was going to have a higher ROI than other investments?

… you wouldn’t.

Re: Panasonic sells its $3.6B Tesla stake

#93

It seems like a smart decision once you look at car companies' market caps: Tesla: $651 B Toyota: $288 B Volkswagen: $152 B Daimler / Mercedes: $99 B Ford: $60 B

I won't dispute that Tesla's valuation is eye watering, but it isn't very meaningful to compare market caps. A generally superior comparison is between enterprise values. This is especially true for car companies which (with the exception of Tesla) are heavily debt financed.

By that metric, Tesla actually drops below 600Bn. Toyota moves to about 400bn. Ford goes to 170bn. VW is 350bn.

Re: Panasonic sells its $3.6B Tesla stake

#94

It seems like a smart decision once you look at car companies' market caps: Tesla: $651 B Toyota: $288 B Volkswagen: $152 B Daimler / Mercedes: $99 B Ford: $60 B

Market cap isn't really a meaningful metric to compare across companies for most use cases. It certainly isn't a valuation metric.

I get what you're saying, and there's truth to it, but Tesla is also valued higher than all the major car companies. For that to make sense, it either needs to have a business well beyond cars (maybe batteries, maybe not; maybe solar) or a path to significantly better margins that competitors (unlikely).

The valuation right now is entirely a bet on Elon and being part of the story.

Re: Panasonic sells its $3.6B Tesla stake

#95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People said this 3 years ago too, arguing Tesla was too big. guess what: it got way bigger. Tesla is forcing other brands to have to adapt or die. They are way behind Tesla in technology, infrastructure, and marketshare for electric vehicle and battery tech.

> it got way bigger. It's still unclear whether this is due to fundamentals like the ones you mention, or just an irrational stock market. Now that more and more companies are coming out with their EVs, the truth might become clearer.

There is something between 'fundamentals' and 'irrationality' here. This kind of market cap results from a bet by buyers that, if given access to capital (by inflating the value of Tesla or Elon's holdings of Tesla shares, or its ability to issue more) Tesla will realize the value that the market cap is bid up to. But of course, it's circular - if Tesla's stock wasn't bid up that high, it wouldn't have the capital to realize that value. That doesn't mean it's irrational, but it's not the same as a cold evaluation that a business is already clearly going to be worth than much.

Re: Panasonic sells its $3.6B Tesla stake

#96
post #50
post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent." And it will continue to go up until it doesn't. Maybe Tesla has a vault of unicorn blood and is just waiting for the perfect time to unveil it, but as a car company, their stock valuation makes absolutely no sense. It would take a miracle for Tesla to overtake more than all 3 top automakers combined. There is zero indication this has any possibili…

I don't disagree with you, but the common retort I hear to this sentiment is that "they aren't a car company, they are a battery/energy storage company that currently sells cars". What are your thoughts on that sentiment? Just curious to hear from rational investors on that specific item.

Which is a funny idea, since the batteries are coming from Panasonic.

Re: Panasonic sells its $3.6B Tesla stake

#97

It seems like a smart decision once you look at car companies' market caps: Tesla: $651 B Toyota: $288 B Volkswagen: $152 B Daimler / Mercedes: $99 B Ford: $60 B

People said this 3 years ago too, arguing Tesla was too big. guess what: it got way bigger. Tesla is forcing other brands to have to adapt or die. They are way behind Tesla in technology, infrastructure, and marketshare for electric vehicle and battery tech.

That doesn't prove much; it's been 3 years of a very bubbly market. The NASDAQ has gone up 2x over that period. As Warren Buffett said, "Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked."

I remember a lot of people in 1999 and 2000 pooh-poohing talk of a bubble with the exact same arguments. The technology is amazing! People predicted it was a bubble before and it's only gone up!

There's no denying Musk is a true master of hype. That has given him a ton of free advertising and a very low cost of capital. And he's gotten away with fantasies and lies for years, like promising 1 million robo-taxis on the road by the end of 2020. [1] But all bubbles pop eventually, and truth always wins over hype in the long run. It's only then we'll see whether Tesla's become truly a sustainable business, or whether Musk is still swimming naked.

[1] https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-robo-taxis-elon-musk-p...

Re: Panasonic sells its $3.6B Tesla stake

#98
post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When Amazon sell you a printer or a book or a laptop, are they dumping it?

Dumping is slang financial word for selling your entire inventory of certain type of thing. Usually this has underpinning that the item is some kind of hot potato that they want to get rid of. That is because, usually, selling a huge amount of stock like that causes the price to drop while you are selling it so it means you are accepting some additional losses for selling everything quickly. When Amazon sells me some…

Thanks, I did actually find that explanation useful

Re: Panasonic sells its $3.6B Tesla stake

#99
post #86
post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah "dumping" a winning trade isn't dumping. It's taking profits to move onto other investments.

“Dumping” is kind of a provocative term, but when you cash out an investment that usually means you no longer expect the asset to continue appreciating. (Or at least that you expect a better return elsewhere) Nobody would cash out a position if you expected further gains.

Many reasons to dump assets expecting further asset price appreciation: cost to maintain inventory no longer worthwhile, pivot, asset manager quits with no replacement, further gains expected but beta too high, conflict of interest, regulatory burden, etc...

Re: Panasonic sells its $3.6B Tesla stake

#100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People said this 3 years ago too, arguing Tesla was too big. guess what: it got way bigger. Tesla is forcing other brands to have to adapt or die. They are way behind Tesla in technology, infrastructure, and marketshare for electric vehicle and battery tech.

Just look at Norway and the Netherlands which seem to have a 2-3 year lead on EV adoption. Volkswagen brands have already surpassed Tesla sales there. Tesla makes a terrific product and they single handedly provoked that change we are seeing now. However, the German and Korean brands make great cars too. Given the choice I would trade good build quality, some more physical buttons and a quiet cabin at highway speeds…

They are catching up, but currently the VW and other EVs, with the exception of Porsche, are pretty inferior. (A notable exception is Hyundai's Ioniq5, which is very impressive).

My biggest concern with other auto manufacturers EV projects is how absolutely abysmal these companies are at building software. It's just not even close. And software makes a HUGE difference with EVs. My wife's Audi has absolute shit software.

It's not that it's some tall order to write good software, it's just that these massive corporations have no idea how to build good software teams, period.

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