Earlier quoted context omitted.
Yes and no. It depends on what is being manufactured. We manufacture big, expensive things. I have friends that run Garment District companies, and they are pretty much a Bellwether for this kind of thing. > In the next decade, china itself will see large segments of its manufacturing labour gone to automation. I agree. It will be slower than Japan and Korea, because China has a much larger population of poor folks t…
I suspect, based on a type of ecological-thermodynamic reasoning, that china will never be middle class. I think the "global class structure" we have today might be the peak of history. The relevant calculation: Annual US Energy Consumption per Capia: 7,000 kg oil equivalent. China: 2,000 kg. So you're looking at +5,000kg per capita * 1.4bn people annual . So you'll need to add that energy capacity to the world, ie.,…
Basically the small group of younger workers are going to have their wealth siphoned off to support the much larger older population who doesn’t have financial means to support themselves. Not a big deal when it’s 5 workers to one retired. Huge deal when it’s 2 to 1.
The expectation is that will stall growth for decades. China will be richer, but stuck in a lower income range until they come out the other side.
It’s an interesting theory.