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Blood test that finds 50 types of cancer is accurate enough to be rolled out

theguardian.com

41–50 of 389 posts

Re: Blood test that finds 50 types of cancer is accurate enough to be rolled out

#41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A big part of this is the fact that learning information (about a disease or condition) early is often NOT the same thing as learning information that will change a patient’s clinical outcome.

I never understood this. I mean I totally get the concept, but I don't get how it came to influence policy. Put it like this: how many people are you willing to kill to make sure people don't find out they're sick? Because that's what it boils down to. And it sounds... sociopathic.

How many people are you willing to kill with too excessive testing programs? Because that is part of the equation too. It's easy to ignore because chances of harm from non-invasive-ish testing like a blood test is low.

The problem is that it compounds quickly.

Consider:

* For a rare condition you need a lot of tests to find them. Let's say you look for something that 1 in a million can be expected to have.

* When you find those 1 in a million, the testing needs to save them, which means a proportion of them need to otherwise be significantly affected. Let's say 1 in 10 of them die.

* When you find those 1 in 10 million that has the condition that would have died without intervention, early intervention needs to actually make a difference. Let's say 1 in 10 of those actually survive because of early detection.

Now you have to do ~100 million tests to save one life.

Suddenly 100 million:1 odds of dying as a result of a visit to do a blood test are enough to neutralise the benefit, be it infections or accidents etc.. And that includes secondary effects such as delayed diagnosis because a false negative leads a patient to delay seeking a second opinion once symptoms present.

Additionally there's the opportunity costs in terms of saving lives by spending the money elsewhere, such as e.g. awareness of symptoms and the like, or addressing entirely different issues.

Of course, if you have a more common condition, and/or a condition that is much more lethal, and/or a condition where early intervention makes a difference, this all changes.

But it's worth noting how little mass screening we do - as it turns out, it's hard to find conditions where the benefits are substantial enough to be worthwhile. In some cases, such as the use of mass screening for breast cancer, there has been calls to scale it back some places because it was unclear whether there was a net benefit.

Re: Blood test that finds 50 types of cancer is accurate enough to be rolled out

#42

If you’re tested positive, what’s the probably that you actually have cancer? (The article states 0.5% false positive rate and about 50% true positive rate, but I would need to know the the prevalence of cancer in the population to compute what I am asking for).

One of the cancers they mention is pancreatic cancer. A quick Google search suggests the prevalence of pancreatic cancer in the population is 13 per 100,000. So if you gave this test with a 0.005 false positive rate and 0.5 true positive rate to 100,000 people it would miss diagnose 500 people and only correctly detect 7 cancers. So given you had a positive test result there would be a 1-(7/500)=98.6% chance you did…

It seems like there are a number of other risk factors as well (see https://www.cancerresearchuk.org/health-professional/cancer-...), that could shrink the pool of people tested.

Re: Blood test that finds 50 types of cancer is accurate enough to be rolled out

#43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I never understood this. I mean I totally get the concept, but I don't get how it came to influence policy. Put it like this: how many people are you willing to kill to make sure people don't find out they're sick? Because that's what it boils down to. And it sounds... sociopathic.

I’m not sure I understand what you mean. It seems like you’re framing my motivation as not wanting people to know that they are sick and being willing to trade peoples lives to achieve that outcome, which I don’t think is at all what my above comment says.

It is how I understood it, sorry about that. What did you mean?

Re: Blood test that finds 50 types of cancer is accurate enough to be rolled out

#44

This is one of those medical revolutions that I am waiting dearly for. Facilities that are not hospitals(to avoid the risk of occupying medical devices that sick people need) built to _regulary_ check up otherwise healthy people for preventive care. Heck, I have so many alerts defined on my monitoring setup for servers to watch for signals of failure before they get too big. But, my own body is not observed until som…

A big part of this is the fact that learning information (about a disease or condition) early is often NOT the same thing as learning information that will change a patient’s clinical outcome.

Yup. Let’s say the test shows “very likely” for pancreatic cancer.

Now you do imaging. Ok, nothing there? Now what? Biopsy? That’s general anesthesia now and costly (for the patient or govt). Biopsy is negative. Now what? Start chemo? Watch and wait? For how long? Do a biopsy every 6 months?

None of these tests are 100% accurate. If broadly used, a false positive of 0.1% will result in tens of thousands getting unnecessary testing.

Re: Blood test that finds 50 types of cancer is accurate enough to be rolled out

#45
post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's already a thing, at least everywhere I've ever lived. You have a primary care doctor, you see them at least once a year, they do a physical exam, maybe some blood work. This test maybe becomes standard of care for everyone annually.

May be I have been living in a bubble. I remember doing a “annual check up” in the US about 5 years ago, and that was super basic - blood pressure, sugar, cholesterol levels etc. they didn’t even do a detailed enough bloodwork to test for allergies. Definitely not looking for any disease vectors. Now, I live in DK, and my visit to the GP would always go with my hard attempts to convince my GP that something is really…

Same for me in Germany. You are eligible to one checkup when you turn 35, that's it, lol. Otherwise you have to convince the doctor a certain check is necessary. Usually doctors don't like that very much. I would even happily pay for it myself, but I still need to convince the doctor I'm not a hypochondriac.

Re: Blood test that finds 50 types of cancer is accurate enough to be rolled out

#46

This is one of those medical revolutions that I am waiting dearly for. Facilities that are not hospitals(to avoid the risk of occupying medical devices that sick people need) built to _regulary_ check up otherwise healthy people for preventive care. Heck, I have so many alerts defined on my monitoring setup for servers to watch for signals of failure before they get too big. But, my own body is not observed until som…

Regularly checking people that are otherwise healthy for cancer will turn up a lot of cancer through false positives or slowly growing ones, will lead to a lot of unnecessary intervention and will in fact lead to a reduction in quality of life and lifespan. This is one of the reasons why exhaustive cancer screening (which was more costly in the past but could have been done) was not promoted, it had nothing to do with ability, but everything to do with outcomes.

Those cancers where checkups are useful we already do regular screenings for.

For aggressive cancers - the ones that are really problematic - you would have to do such a test too frequently to make any real difference, for instance, if you were to test annually you'd be on average 6 months away from your next test, plenty of time for such a cancer to develop and kill you.

So this is not the kind of breakthrough that you may think it is.

Re: Blood test that finds 50 types of cancer is accurate enough to be rolled out

#47
post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's already a thing, at least everywhere I've ever lived. You have a primary care doctor, you see them at least once a year, they do a physical exam, maybe some blood work. This test maybe becomes standard of care for everyone annually.

This is not true in the Netherlands. You don’t get any tests if there is nothing wrong. Healthcare in this country scares me.

Really? Not even a blood pressure check or a physician listening to your lungs or just examine your skin for weird moles?

That’s terrible.

Re: Blood test that finds 50 types of cancer is accurate enough to be rolled out

#49
post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is not true in the Netherlands. You don’t get any tests if there is nothing wrong. Healthcare in this country scares me.

Really? Not even a blood pressure check or a physician listening to your lungs or just examine your skin for weird moles? That’s terrible.

I am leaving my current physician because I had a very strange, black patch on my back, surrounded by a 'bleached', growing circle.

Due to COVID, I provided videos to her assistant, which the physician reviewed. Physician claimed she needed better pictures ( obviously I had sent the best material ).

The response to that was : the doctor needs to see the patch herself.

Then when I arrived at the appointment she basically treated me like shit. I have filed a complaint with her practice.

This is NL.

Re: Blood test that finds 50 types of cancer is accurate enough to be rolled out

#50

This is one of those medical revolutions that I am waiting dearly for. Facilities that are not hospitals(to avoid the risk of occupying medical devices that sick people need) built to _regulary_ check up otherwise healthy people for preventive care. Heck, I have so many alerts defined on my monitoring setup for servers to watch for signals of failure before they get too big. But, my own body is not observed until som…

Regularly checking people that are otherwise healthy for cancer will turn up a lot of cancer through false positives or slowly growing ones, will lead to a lot of unnecessary intervention and will in fact lead to a reduction in quality of life and lifespan. This is one of the reasons why exhaustive cancer screening (which was more costly in the past but could have been done) was not promoted, it had nothing to do wit…

Who are "we"? I'm certainly not "regularly" screened.
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