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TSMC’s dominance poses risks to the global economy

wsj.com

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Re: TSMC’s dominance poses risks to the global economy

#81

Post by shadofx »

_carbyau_ wrote: post #3

While the world wouldn't grind to a complete halt without Taiwan, they are a (the?) major player in high end chips. While not 100% watching it I feel as though China US relations have whole strategies around Taiwan. Of course, if war over Taiwan breaks out, I plan to hit up my local computer shop, preferably within the hour.

Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Isreal. The US reliably puts its money in places that are under threat. That's not something a profit - driven free market would normally do. It is US setting the geopolitical stage.

Re: TSMC’s dominance poses risks to the global economy

#82

Post by Koiwai »

brazzy wrote: post #79
Koiwai wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't want to argue if China will "invade" Taiwan. But what make you think China will "cut off the world" IF that happens? That's not how this works, that's not how any of this works.

No, they wouldn't deliberately stop selling the product of intact, fully staffed fabs after gaining control of them. But we're not talking about a corporate takeover. We're talking about a naval invasion of a very densely populated and well defended island. That might involve heavy artillery bombardment and prolonged urban combat, maybe a guerilla war and sabotage actions. There is no guarantee that the fabs are stil…

Then what will China get from that?

I mean, we're on different political sides, not good vs evil, please acknowledge that.

Re: TSMC’s dominance poses risks to the global economy

#83

Post by pa7x1 »

newswasboring wrote: post #31
sydthrowaway wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Any competitors to ASML?

No real competitors. They own the EUV market because they own the only company making EUV sources (Cymer). They also work very closely with Zeiss and co own some of the important patents I think (but don't quote me on this). A Japanese company Gigaphoton made a EUV source, but I am not aware of any orders from any major fab to them. I think since 2018 they are just trying to be second source for source parts (guessin…

Cymer is not the only company producing EUV sources. There are some Japanese companies that do produce them too, (e.g. Ushio). And ASML itself uses Trumpf's (Germany) lasers instead of Cymer.

https://www.laserfocusworld.com/blogs/article/14039015/how-d...

Re: TSMC’s dominance poses risks to the global economy

#84

Post by newswasboring »

pa7x1 wrote: post #83
newswasboring wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No real competitors. They own the EUV market because they own the only company making EUV sources (Cymer). They also work very closely with Zeiss and co own some of the important patents I think (but don't quote me on this). A Japanese company Gigaphoton made a EUV source, but I am not aware of any orders from any major fab to them. I think since 2018 they are just trying to be second source for source parts (guessin…

Cymer is not the only company producing EUV sources. There are some Japanese companies that do produce them too, (e.g. Ushio). And ASML itself uses Trumpf's (Germany) lasers instead of Cymer. https://www.laserfocusworld.com/blogs/article/14039015/how-d...

Trumpf doesn't make the EUV source it makes the CO2 laser which produces the plasma in Cymer's EUV source. Ushio does make a EUV source but thats not for manufacturing, its for inspection. The power difference itself should tell you that its a different ball game entirely.

Re: TSMC’s dominance poses risks to the global economy

#85

Post by jopsen »

Koiwai wrote: post #82
brazzy wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, they wouldn't deliberately stop selling the product of intact, fully staffed fabs after gaining control of them. But we're not talking about a corporate takeover. We're talking about a naval invasion of a very densely populated and well defended island. That might involve heavy artillery bombardment and prolonged urban combat, maybe a guerilla war and sabotage actions. There is no guarantee that the fabs are stil…

Then what will China get from that? I mean, we're on different political sides, not good vs evil, please acknowledge that.

> we're on different political sides, not good vs evil

One of the sides runs a series of concentration camps. Sells organs from political prisoners, etc.

But yes, I suppose it's just politics. Personally, I think genocide is slightly evil, but feel free to disagree.

Re: TSMC’s dominance poses risks to the global economy

#86

Post by jopsen »

Koiwai wrote: post #32
epberry wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

South Korea is not 100 miles from China and has a massive US military presence. This article is about the very real danger that China invades Taiwan - which it has already stated it wants to do (in case the military flyovers were not convincing) - and cuts off the world from the best silicon.

I don't want to argue if China will "invade" Taiwan. But what make you think China will "cut off the world" IF that happens? That's not how this works, that's not how any of this works.

> what make you think China will "cut off the world" IF that happens?

You think leading US chip designers would send their designs to China?

The well organized state of industrial espionage by China, is a pretty good reason this won't happen.

Furthermore, the rest of the world would be forced to embargo anything related to Taiwan.

Re: TSMC’s dominance poses risks to the global economy

#87

Post by LatteLazy »

zero_deg_kevin wrote: post #73
LatteLazy wrote: post #39

I wonder if China will invade. If the last few years have told us anything, it's that China can do whatever it likes. The rest of the international community is fractured like never before. There may never be a better time, if and only if China can get it done quickly and reliably. Xi (Winne the Pooh) is in a strong place to do it politically.

I suspect China is overestimating the strength of their hand. Their economy is dependent on foreign corporations voluntarily choosing to manufacture there. If they start acting like a third-world kleptostate, they'll be branded as unreliable business partners and have to go back to sorting trash.

>corporations voluntarily choosing to manufacture there

I'm not sure how true that is anymore. Companies trying to manufacture elsewhere have to cope with 101 issues that increase costs. Everything from JIT logistics not working to lack or workers to uncooperative governments. China is getting more expensive and some low skill work is going elsewhere. But for most companies, setting up elsewhere means prices much higher than the market will tolerate.

Re: TSMC’s dominance poses risks to the global economy

#88

Post by blueblisters »

greenforer wrote: post #40

Been thinking about this for a few weeks. Taiwan is profiting immensely from semiconductors, that means demand for semiconductors is very high. This was also the case before 2020. So, manufacturing semiconductors is profitable. It is clear to me that if semiconductor production was doubled overnight, many new industries making use of the newly available cheap chips could arise and bring innovation. Why only Taiwan? T…

I don't think it has anything to do with corporate tax rates (at least no to the extent you suggest it is). It has everything to do with access to cheap skilled labor, resources (water), incentives, and supply chain. Taiwan offers all four through years of honing this industry. After all TSMC is pretty much critical to Taiwan's economy and national security.

Secondly, TSMC is so far ahead of the curve that any competitor will take years and billion of dollars to get to where they are right now. ASML develops the technology in close collaboration with TSMC and I suspect TSMC owns many of the patents required to operate EUV successfully.

The industry is happy with the status quo because TSMC offers the best technology at the best prices.

Re: TSMC’s dominance poses risks to the global economy

#89

Post by _bhlv »

zero_deg_kevin wrote: post #73
LatteLazy wrote: post #39

I wonder if China will invade. If the last few years have told us anything, it's that China can do whatever it likes. The rest of the international community is fractured like never before. There may never be a better time, if and only if China can get it done quickly and reliably. Xi (Winne the Pooh) is in a strong place to do it politically.

I suspect China is overestimating the strength of their hand. Their economy is dependent on foreign corporations voluntarily choosing to manufacture there. If they start acting like a third-world kleptostate, they'll be branded as unreliable business partners and have to go back to sorting trash.

China has the 2nd largest (and according to some sources, probably the largest) consumer market on Earth, and is currently, by a large margin, the largest market for Cars, Smartphones, PCs, Fashion, and a host of other product categories. In 2020, China was the only major country where global corporations didn't see a significant decline in sales growth.

China is also, again by far, the largest e-commerce market and the largest mobile payments market on Earth.

I apologize for sounding like an infomercial, but these are basic economic facts that one would expect a reasonably well-read individual to be aware of. I would advise that in future you get better informed before coming here to advertise your ignorance.

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