71–80 of 107 posts
Earlier quoted context omitted.
The solution is to stop playing the bullshit game of Taiwan non-recognition, give it a seat in the UN and protect it.
I support recognising Taiwan. But doing so won't make it any more secure.
It's interesting to think about what the solutions to this problem are. The advantages of buying from TSMC are presumably they have a lead in both technology and cost that will make your product better and cheaper. The disadvantages are that in natural disaster or war/military event the chips won't be available and you'll have difficulty shipping your products. It's very hard for a company to take the latter seriousl…
The solution is to stop playing the bullshit game of Taiwan non-recognition, give it a seat in the UN and protect it.
I wonder if China will invade. If the last few years have told us anything, it's that China can do whatever it likes. The rest of the international community is fractured like never before. There may never be a better time, if and only if China can get it done quickly and reliably. Xi (Winne the Pooh) is in a strong place to do it politically.
I believe this is some political campaign to get financial support for certain endeavors.
TSMC are a critical piece of the world's infrastructure. The fact that car makers are grinding to a slowdown and for particular assemblies, a complete halt, is very telling. The automakers themselves now fully appreciate just how critical TSMC really are. If they weren't critical, then they'd already have an alternate supply ready right now. But they don't. Its TSMC being pressured to increase production capacity, no…
The combination of it being a very specialized and expensive industry with high upfront costs, extremely high RnD, cut throat competition and patent landmines means that as time has gone on ther have been fewer and fewer players. The only ones really capable of filling orders for chips using process tech from the last 5 or so years would be TSMC, Samsung, Global Foundries and Intel. Intel just recently opened up to third party production so they wont have an effect on the global supply for awhile.
TSMC are a critical piece of the world's infrastructure. The fact that car makers are grinding to a slowdown and for particular assemblies, a complete halt, is very telling. The automakers themselves now fully appreciate just how critical TSMC really are. If they weren't critical, then they'd already have an alternate supply ready right now. But they don't. Its TSMC being pressured to increase production capacity, no…
TSMC isn't the only one, there are still a few big players in the semiconductor fab market. The problem is its an extremely inelastic industry. Creating a new foundry is a very slow and expensive process. If you had predicted this and starting building one in 2019 to take advantage of the demand you still wouldn't be in business yet. The combination of it being a very specialized and expensive industry with high upfr…
The combination of it being a very specialized and
expensive industry with high upfront costs, extremely
high RnD, cut throat competition and patent landmine
Obviously, labor costs are much lower elsewhere. But the massive capital expenditures involved mean that labor is a comparatively much lower % of overall costs compared to, say, spinning up a factory to make cheap shirts.
I wonder if Western nations/companies will be spurred by this chip shortage to start prioritizing their own foundries. Like energy independence, except... silicon independence.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
TSMC isn't the only one, there are still a few big players in the semiconductor fab market. The problem is its an extremely inelastic industry. Creating a new foundry is a very slow and expensive process. If you had predicted this and starting building one in 2019 to take advantage of the demand you still wouldn't be in business yet. The combination of it being a very specialized and expensive industry with high upfr…
The combination of it being a very specialized and expensive industry with high upfront costs, extremely high RnD, cut throat competition and patent landmine What prevents (companies in) Western nations from creating their own fabs on their own home soil? Obviously, labor costs are much lower elsewhere. But the massive capital expenditures involved mean that labor is a comparatively much lower % of overall costs comp…
The problem isn't that TSMC is the only fab. Its that semiconductor fabrication is inelastic, in other words it cant respond quickly to changing demand. The lead time to start producing a given chip design is fairly long and a fab like TSMC will have its available capacity contracted out in advance. They were already running at capacity before COVID because their 7nm process was very popular.
You cant just build a fab overnight and start producing chips. Just building the place and getting the appropriate equipment installed takes over a year and then there is a lead time for adapting the chip design to your process. You actually design your chips with the proprietary fab process in mind. So if you had contracted with TSMC but they cant fill your order and you have to move to one of the newly available Intel fabs your engineers must adapt your design before you can start producing again. Every step of this process takes time that means that no reaction due to COVID would be showing results yet. There will be a shortage for the foreseeable future.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
The solution is to stop playing the bullshit game of Taiwan non-recognition, give it a seat in the UN and protect it.
How would that be a solution? What does Taiwan’s standing (or lack thereof) in the UN have to do with protecting the chip supply chain? Isn’t the US already defending it?
Even the US has been very carefully not fully committing to a defense of Taiwan, giving China the impression (according to some reports) that they might get away with it if they just act quickly enough.
Of course, none of this affects non-military threats to TSMC's production, like earthquakes.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
South Korea is not 100 miles from China and has a massive US military presence. This article is about the very real danger that China invades Taiwan - which it has already stated it wants to do (in case the military flyovers were not convincing) - and cuts off the world from the best silicon.
I don't want to argue if China will "invade" Taiwan. But what make you think China will "cut off the world" IF that happens? That's not how this works, that's not how any of this works.
But we're not talking about a corporate takeover. We're talking about a naval invasion of a very densely populated and well defended island. That might involve heavy artillery bombardment and prolonged urban combat, maybe a guerilla war and sabotage actions.
There is no guarantee that the fabs are still operational after all that.
It's interesting to think about what the solutions to this problem are. The advantages of buying from TSMC are presumably they have a lead in both technology and cost that will make your product better and cheaper. The disadvantages are that in natural disaster or war/military event the chips won't be available and you'll have difficulty shipping your products. It's very hard for a company to take the latter seriousl…
The solution is to stop playing the bullshit game of Taiwan non-recognition, give it a seat in the UN and protect it.