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TSMC’s dominance poses risks to the global economy

wsj.com

21–30 of 107 posts

Re: TSMC’s dominance poses risks to the global economy

#21
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The solution is to stop playing the bullshit game of Taiwan non-recognition, give it a seat in the UN and protect it.

Can a place be recognized as a country by the UN if a Security Council member vetos?

Perhaps, if all the rest of the security council members and other countrises recognize it individually. You can veto a UN decision but not a sovereign country decision.

Re: TSMC’s dominance poses risks to the global economy

#22

It's interesting to think about what the solutions to this problem are. The advantages of buying from TSMC are presumably they have a lead in both technology and cost that will make your product better and cheaper. The disadvantages are that in natural disaster or war/military event the chips won't be available and you'll have difficulty shipping your products. It's very hard for a company to take the latter seriousl…

The investments needed to improve processes have been going up every year. There can only be so many companies that can pour billions of dollars into R&D each year.

If you want to sustain a local cutting-edge manufacturer even when its capacities are redundant or too small to be economical then the pot of subsidies would have to increase yearly and not be spent wastefully. Is there a precedent for that?

Re: TSMC’s dominance poses risks to the global economy

#24

It's interesting to think about what the solutions to this problem are. The advantages of buying from TSMC are presumably they have a lead in both technology and cost that will make your product better and cheaper. The disadvantages are that in natural disaster or war/military event the chips won't be available and you'll have difficulty shipping your products. It's very hard for a company to take the latter seriousl…

The solution is to collectively, clearly, and politely tell the Communist Party of China to get fked. A lot of companies will lose money and a lot of things will get expensive, but it’s either rip the bandaid off now or amputate a limb later. Does the world have the courage to do it?

Re: TSMC’s dominance poses risks to the global economy

#25

Why is news like this not driving the stock price up? I mean to me this sounds as if TSMC could easily raise prices and increase profits and their customers will still buy the exact same amount... Because they have to.

The risk TSMC faces is that competitors will bring up new capacity and deal with improved performance, the stock projects the value of profit "forever" not just for the next couple years.

Re: TSMC’s dominance poses risks to the global economy

#26
post #16

TSMC are a critical piece of the world's infrastructure. The fact that car makers are grinding to a slowdown and for particular assemblies, a complete halt, is very telling. The automakers themselves now fully appreciate just how critical TSMC really are. If they weren't critical, then they'd already have an alternate supply ready right now. But they don't. Its TSMC being pressured to increase production capacity, no…

The stuff car makers buy doesn't solely rely on TSMC and can also be produced by GloFo or Samsung or maybe even other smaller fabs. No everything needs bleeding edge. It's a more general trend.

Re: TSMC’s dominance poses risks to the global economy

#27
post #12

Here is another headline, The world relies on two chip marker in South Korea for NAND and DRAM, leaving Everyone Vulnerable. Although arguably NAND and DRAM are commodities, and US already has a back up strategy ( Micron ).

Here is another one. World relies on only one relatively obscure dutch company for its EUV lithography equipment. For DUV the market is divided between 3 players two in japan and the aforementioned one. Apps market for semiconductors is also cornered by two companies. This whole space has consolidated in last decade or so. Everyone wants to have full control over their supply chain, so everyone is trying to buy their…

There's also a surprisingly tiny market for stepper makers, which I didn't even know where a complex thing until a few months ago.

Re: TSMC’s dominance poses risks to the global economy

#28
post #12

Here is another headline, The world relies on two chip marker in South Korea for NAND and DRAM, leaving Everyone Vulnerable. Although arguably NAND and DRAM are commodities, and US already has a back up strategy ( Micron ).

Here is another one. World relies on only one relatively obscure dutch company for its EUV lithography equipment. For DUV the market is divided between 3 players two in japan and the aforementioned one. Apps market for semiconductors is also cornered by two companies. This whole space has consolidated in last decade or so. Everyone wants to have full control over their supply chain, so everyone is trying to buy their…

Any competitors to ASML?

Re: TSMC’s dominance poses risks to the global economy

#29

It's interesting to think about what the solutions to this problem are. The advantages of buying from TSMC are presumably they have a lead in both technology and cost that will make your product better and cheaper. The disadvantages are that in natural disaster or war/military event the chips won't be available and you'll have difficulty shipping your products. It's very hard for a company to take the latter seriousl…

The solution is to collectively, clearly, and politely tell the Communist Party of China to get fked. A lot of companies will lose money and a lot of things will get expensive, but it’s either rip the bandaid off now or amputate a limb later. Does the world have the courage to do it?

Unfortunately, it seems the path the world is taking is to become less dependent on Taiwan and China while avoiding upsetting China.

We're going to see a repeat of these events 20 years from now when Vietnam's economy grows, thanks to manufacturing relocation, and we're just as dependent on them for various things. Right now the world is hoping and praying that Vietnam will liberalize when money flows in, but it's more likely they'll follow a similar path as China, albeit less powerful.

Re: TSMC’s dominance poses risks to the global economy

#30

It's interesting to think about what the solutions to this problem are. The advantages of buying from TSMC are presumably they have a lead in both technology and cost that will make your product better and cheaper. The disadvantages are that in natural disaster or war/military event the chips won't be available and you'll have difficulty shipping your products. It's very hard for a company to take the latter seriousl…

The solution is to collectively, clearly, and politely tell the Communist Party of China to get fked. A lot of companies will lose money and a lot of things will get expensive, but it’s either rip the bandaid off now or amputate a limb later. Does the world have the courage to do it?

Looking at the Sudetenland crisis of 1938, it doesn't.

It took several iterations of territorial expansion for Germany to be considered an actual fightable foe. Austria, Memel, Sudetenland, the rest of the Czech lands, Poland. Even after the invasion of Poland, when war was declared, it was a Phony War in the beginning. The fighting in the West only really started in 1940.

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