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TSMC’s dominance poses risks to the global economy

wsj.com

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Re: TSMC’s dominance poses risks to the global economy

#13
It's interesting to think about what the solutions to this problem are. The advantages of buying from TSMC are presumably they have a lead in both technology and cost that will make your product better and cheaper. The disadvantages are that in natural disaster or war/military event the chips won't be available and you'll have difficulty shipping your products.

It's very hard for a company to take the latter seriously (like the supply chain issues that arose due to covid) when it is a very rare event that will likely have other large effects on your market and your competitors also.

Governments stepping in to subsidise/force use of other companies will likely reduce the short term profitability or commercial appeal of your product.

Re: TSMC’s dominance poses risks to the global economy

#14
post #12

Here is another headline, The world relies on two chip marker in South Korea for NAND and DRAM, leaving Everyone Vulnerable. Although arguably NAND and DRAM are commodities, and US already has a back up strategy ( Micron ).

Arguably as well, South Korea is underneath significantly less geopolitical threat than Taiwan.

Re: TSMC’s dominance poses risks to the global economy

#15

It's interesting to think about what the solutions to this problem are. The advantages of buying from TSMC are presumably they have a lead in both technology and cost that will make your product better and cheaper. The disadvantages are that in natural disaster or war/military event the chips won't be available and you'll have difficulty shipping your products. It's very hard for a company to take the latter seriousl…

The solution is to stop playing the bullshit game of Taiwan non-recognition, give it a seat in the UN and protect it.

Re: TSMC’s dominance poses risks to the global economy

#16
TSMC are a critical piece of the world's infrastructure. The fact that car makers are grinding to a slowdown and for particular assemblies, a complete halt, is very telling. The automakers themselves now fully appreciate just how critical TSMC really are. If they weren't critical, then they'd already have an alternate supply ready right now. But they don't. Its TSMC being pressured to increase production capacity, not an eager competitor taking up the slack. They wouldn't be furloughing employees otherwise. The Germans and many others wouldn't be sending letters to Taiwan requesting higher production. So TSMC is critical.

Does this mean there are absolutely no alternatives? Likely not, but TSMC are essentially the only game in town. At scale. At quality. With a useful track record of known production characteristics.

Re: TSMC’s dominance poses risks to the global economy

#17

While the world wouldn't grind to a complete halt without Taiwan, they are a (the?) major player in high end chips. While not 100% watching it I feel as though China US relations have whole strategies around Taiwan. Of course, if war over Taiwan breaks out, I plan to hit up my local computer shop, preferably within the hour.

China will not attempt to invade Taiwan (at least not now). But the threat of invasion will be continued to played up in US politics in order to support increased military spending and aggressive industrial policies towards US allies (in particular Taiwan but also South Korea).

If Xi considers unification to be his legacy, there is a high risk of invasion.

Re: TSMC’s dominance poses risks to the global economy

#18
post #12

Here is another headline, The world relies on two chip marker in South Korea for NAND and DRAM, leaving Everyone Vulnerable. Although arguably NAND and DRAM are commodities, and US already has a back up strategy ( Micron ).

South Korea is not 100 miles from China and has a massive US military presence. This article is about the very real danger that China invades Taiwan - which it has already stated it wants to do (in case the military flyovers were not convincing) - and cuts off the world from the best silicon.

Re: TSMC’s dominance poses risks to the global economy

#19
post #12

Here is another headline, The world relies on two chip marker in South Korea for NAND and DRAM, leaving Everyone Vulnerable. Although arguably NAND and DRAM are commodities, and US already has a back up strategy ( Micron ).

Here is another one. World relies on only one relatively obscure dutch company for its EUV lithography equipment. For DUV the market is divided between 3 players two in japan and the aforementioned one. Apps market for semiconductors is also cornered by two companies. This whole space has consolidated in last decade or so. Everyone wants to have full control over their supply chain, so everyone is trying to buy their entire supply chain.

Re: TSMC’s dominance poses risks to the global economy

#20

It's interesting to think about what the solutions to this problem are. The advantages of buying from TSMC are presumably they have a lead in both technology and cost that will make your product better and cheaper. The disadvantages are that in natural disaster or war/military event the chips won't be available and you'll have difficulty shipping your products. It's very hard for a company to take the latter seriousl…

The solution is to stop playing the bullshit game of Taiwan non-recognition, give it a seat in the UN and protect it.

Can a place be recognized as a country by the UN if a Security Council member vetos?
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