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What Is Voter Satisfaction Efficiency?

electionscience.github.io

41–50 of 128 posts

Re: What Is Voter Satisfaction Efficiency?

#41

It looks like it's a metric constructed to justify Range-ish voting systems, a la Warren Smith's Bayesian regret models. It performs the same core sleigh of hand: it takes a very simple view of strategic voting, assuming a fixed share of the electorate vote "strategically" regardless of election method, and making big assumptions about what's a good strategy. That is, to put it mildly, not a reasonable assumption. It…

Condorcet methods performed well in this analysis, even under the various strategy models. Although it says that STAR performed slightly better under strategic voting, its scores are still very high. The main reason given in the text for preferring to highlight STAR was a (common) belief that the Condorcet methods are too difficult to explain and that explainability is important.

Personally I think the Condorcet methods are not that difficult to explain. The various ways of resolving not perfectly clear situations are a little involved, but everything else makes perfect sense. I built a visualisation a few years ago that created a directed graph of results, and then analysed the strongly connected components.

Having said that, I hadn't come across STAR before and I think it makes a fair amount of sense. Any of these high quality methods are enormously better than those used in lots of countries.

Re: What Is Voter Satisfaction Efficiency?

#42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In Seattle, many of us reached the same conclusion as you did. We’re now trying to change Seattle’s primary elections to use approval voting: https://seattleapproves.org/ Approval voting is extremely effective at capturing voters’ preferences, simple to implement, and incredibly easy to explain - not just the ballot, but how the ballots are tabulated and how the winner is chosen. The entity you linked to, The Center…

> easy to explain What is the simple way to pitch its advantage to IRV without using technical terms? The spoiler effect is simple to explain because we’ve seen it. A hypothetical centre squeeze isn’t. My belief is IRV opens the door to approval voting. (I am still sceptical of it, though I welcome experiments like the one your propose in Seattle.) When approval voting advocates oppose IRV in jurisdictions with plura…

> When approval voting advocates oppose IRV in jurisdictions with plurality voting, however, it just splits the effort and leaves FPTP in place.

Sounds like we are in need of some voting-reform voting reforms!

Re: What Is Voter Satisfaction Efficiency?

#43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> easy to explain What is the simple way to pitch its advantage to IRV without using technical terms? The spoiler effect is simple to explain because we’ve seen it. A hypothetical centre squeeze isn’t. My belief is IRV opens the door to approval voting. (I am still sceptical of it, though I welcome experiments like the one your propose in Seattle.) When approval voting advocates oppose IRV in jurisdictions with plura…

> When approval voting advocates oppose IRV in jurisdictions with plurality voting, however, it just splits the effort and leaves FPTP in place. Sounds like we are in need of some voting-reform voting reforms!

The solution is simple: ban FPTP and give regions X years to come up with a replacement. We can have one big natural experiment on which alternative method is best.

One thing about the US for example, states get a lot of latitude on exactly how to conduct elections.

Re: What Is Voter Satisfaction Efficiency?

#44
I've been a proponent of STAR for some time, but today I'm happy to learn about 321. It sounds even easier to explain and implement than STAR (though approval is likely the method with the least friction using existing equipment).

I really don't see the appeal of IRV, other than momentum. It's harder to implement. It's not really intuitive why you have to rank them. (I belive) it has higher chance of screwing up ballots (e.g. Forgot to rank a candidate). And I don't like how it forces you to split hairs on two equally liked candidates. Minimizing mental friction is important when we struggle to get high voter turnout as-is.

I think 321 most closely matches the political climate in America. People tend to like a candidate, hate them, or "eh, they're fine."

Also, not totally sure (maybe someone can chime in), but I think 321 is "stateless" or "commutative" in that the counts of Goods, Oks, and Bads are independent. With any runoff methods, each ballot has a "state", because after a knockout, you need to apply the runoff votes based on other information on that ballot. This makes it hard to compose ballots, e.g. for our goofy ass electoral college system. With 321, (I think) you can decompose each "channel" total for each candidate, and aggregate them at a higher level.

Re: What Is Voter Satisfaction Efficiency?

#45
post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you point to a real example where you can't distinguish between candidates (I'm Australian, so vote with IRV, and I can't say it ever comes up, except perhaps when choosing who should be last vs second last ;)? Approval voting would seem to have the same convergence to a two party system as FPTP where you have a chamber composed of multiple members, a mayor or similar role would be different. Multi-member represe…

> Can you point to a real example where you can't distinguish between candidates With hundreds/thousands(?) of ranked voting elections worldwide, with certainly millions of voters, you're statistically guaranteed to have that situation for some voter somewhere. > Approval voting would seem to have the same convergence to a two party system as FPTP where you have a chamber composed of multiple members, a mayor or simi…

> With hundreds/thousands(?) of ranked voting elections worldwide, with certainly millions of voters, you're statistically guaranteed to have that situation for some voter somewhere.

One could argue the same thing applies when a voter chooses whether or not to approve a vote for a candidate they don't like in order to prevent an even more disliked candidate from winning. To me, it seems a false choice either way (to order or to approve).

Possibly this a framing problem, given I've grown up in a system where IRV/STV is used, I naturally compare candidates, maybe someone growing up in a Approval voting system would naturally think about whether they like a specific candidate or not.

> ... assuming that 'your' party wins. Otherwise you have no representation at all and you feel disfranchised?

Having two houses where one uses STV and the other has single member districts does have its advantages as a "why not both" option.

Re: What Is Voter Satisfaction Efficiency?

#46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Looking at the results, it's a wonder that IRV (aka "ranked-choice voting") gets more lip service than STAR and approval voting. These latter two seem obviously and measurably superior. They are obviously and measurably superior when you construct a measure designed around their shared features while ignoring the cultural variation in honest ballot marking for these methods resulting from the fact that the ballots…

Can you break that down? Periods are your friend, your comment makes me feel like I'm rereading Moby Dick.

The main advantage of IRV is that it isn't a particularly strategic vote. You put the candidates you in the order of your actual preference, and that's it (there are edge cases, but compared with other systems, pretty rare ones, and their complexity tends to actually discourage strategic behaviours like elevating a decent candidate you think is more likely to win than your first choices). The strategic considerations you actually might want to make are very basic (if you really, really want to make sure someone doesn't win, you can rank parties you're pretty unimpressed with ahead of them).

A ratings ballot, on the other hand, involves massive amounts of thinking. First of all, the concept of what might represent an "honest" approach to intensity of preferences is open to debate. It's US culture to give their Uber driver max marks and tip the serving staff 20%; is this an honest reflection of the intensity of the average American's enthusiasm for service workers relative to people from non-American cultures or simply what they've been taught to do? And real world electoral situations give you all kinds of incentives to do other things (like give your preferred candidate max marks and all the other candidates 0, or all the candidates you don't hate at least 9 out of 10). Is the person who bullet votes max marks for his preferred candidate because that's what the campaign literature suggested really worth more votes than the person who carefully evaluated all the candidates on their merits but doesn't think any of the candidates are worth more than 6 out of 10? With approval voting it's arguably even worse because there's a massive dilemma over whether to vote positively for the candidate(s) you want or negatively to eliminate the risk of candidates you want to lose. Obviously this applies unevenly to different demographics: put someone downright nasty towards a particular demographic on the ballot paper, and suddenly that demographic is under pressure to Approve every other candidate, whilst others continue to happily only vote for candidates they actually want.

If you design an efficiency metric with the arguably unjustifiable assumption that votes always represent either a perfect expression of the intensity of their preferences or a simple uniform strategic vote, and you assume that the proportion of people voting strategically is unaffected by voting system, it is unsurprising that voting systems whose main shortcomings are strategic complexity perform well. Even looking at that data, IRV actually outperforms nearly all the systems if you assume IRV voters are honest and voters using the other system are very strategic which isn't unreasonable given the incentive structures of the different systems.

Re: What Is Voter Satisfaction Efficiency?

#47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Looking at the results, it's a wonder that IRV (aka "ranked-choice voting") gets more lip service than STAR and approval voting. These latter two seem obviously and measurably superior. They are obviously and measurably superior when you construct a measure designed around their shared features while ignoring the cultural variation in honest ballot marking for these methods resulting from the fact that the ballots…

Can you break that down? Periods are your friend, your comment makes me feel like I'm rereading Moby Dick.

> when you construct a measure designed around their shared features

dragonwriter thinks the metric being used in the article linked here was cherry-picked because it favours particular voting systems that the author likes for other reasons.

(I do not believe this, nor do I believe the similar allegation made by vintermann in a top-level comment that's currently the highest rated. Neither offered any actual evidence, and the metric used here seems obviously reasonable to me. What I could believe is if someone thinks that VSE / Bayesian regret captures the essence of what matters in a voting system, then they are likely to prefer systems like approval voting or range voting or STAR. I don't see anything wrong with that.)

> while ignoring the cultural variation in honest ballot marking for these methods

dragonwriter thinks that different voting systems, implemented in different cultures, will exhibit strategic ("dishonest") voting to different extents and in different ways, and thinks this is a problem not addressed in the OP.

(The linked article does consider strategic voting, of various different kinds, but it's certainly possible that it isn't realistic enough about what real voters might do. It would be easier to tell whether dragonwriter has found a real problem here, if dragonwriter had given some examples of variation in strategic voting that are important but neglected in the OP.)

> resulting from the fact that the ballots for them ask a question that doesn't have an objective relationship to preferences.

dragonwriter thinks that what voters primarily have is preferences: candidate A is better than candidate B who is better than candidate C. This is what an IRV ballot asks for. STAR or approval-voting ballots ask different questions (please give a score for how much you like each candidate / please say for each candidate whether you would find them acceptable); dragonwriter finds that unsatisfactory on the basis that voters will have to translate their preferences into answers to those questions, and there is no One True Way to do that.

(I disagree with dragonwriter about what's in voters' brains. At any rate, looking within myself, it is very common that I have a better idea of some candidates' acceptability to me than I do of their relative ranking. E.g., maybe there's the Nice Party, which I like a lot, the Mean Party, which I don't like much but concede has some competence, the Evil Party, which I really don't like but again concede has some competence, and a bunch of Crazy Fringe Parties, none of which I know enough about to rate them relative to one another, but all of which I consider obviously unfit to rule. With a range/STAR system, I might rate Nice at 100, Mean at 30, Evil at 10, and the Crazies at 0. Or I might rate Nice at 100, Mean at 70, Evil at 10, and the Crazies at 0. These are importantly different opinions I might have. A preference-ordering system like IRV doesn't let me express the difference between those, but would really like me to say exactly what my order of preference between the Crazies is. For me, range/STAR does the best job of matching the actual kinds of opinions I have about candidates; 3-2-1 is also pretty good; approval and preference-ordering are similar to one another and distinctly worse than those two; and of course plurality/first-past-the-post is hopeless.)

Re: What Is Voter Satisfaction Efficiency?

#48
post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Whereas with an ordinal system you'd vote A-B-C, but you have no way of 'telling the voting math' that the distance between A and B is much shorter than between B and C. Kenneth Arrow is famous for his impossibility theorem, but he also rejected cardinal systems out of hand, because you can't honestly judge the strength of your own preferences compared to other voters. He argued (pretty well, I thought) that the ex…

> Kenneth Arrow is famous for his impossibility theorem, but he also rejected cardinal systems out of hand, because you can't honestly judge the strength of your own preferences compared to other voters. He argued (pretty well, I thought) that the extra information in cardinal systems was useless. Indeed, that is a strong argument in favor of approval voting; if everybody votes strategically under score voting it red…

> Secondly, I'm not sure I understand the point about strength of preferences. Since everybody has the same range from within to assign preferences, it's all about the relative preferences among the candidates. Doesn't matter if I hate candidate X with the heat of a thousand suns, I can't give that candidate a score of -1000, only the minimum, just like everybody else

Are the relative preference intensities expressed real? Everybody has the same range to vote Uber drivers, but apparently they're all nearly perfect. If a very successful campaigning organization convinces people that they have to give the Judean People's Front 0 for the People's Front of Judea to win even though the parties have similar policies and lots of Judeans strongly prefer them to the Romans, is the resulting distribution a real or artificial expression of the intensity of preferences?

Re: What Is Voter Satisfaction Efficiency?

#49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you break that down? Periods are your friend, your comment makes me feel like I'm rereading Moby Dick.

The main advantage of IRV is that it isn't a particularly strategic vote. You put the candidates you in the order of your actual preference, and that's it (there are edge cases, but compared with other systems, pretty rare ones, and their complexity tends to actually discourage strategic behaviours like elevating a decent candidate you think is more likely to win than your first choices). The strategic considerations…

Excellent critique of ratings based system. I think this is the biggest problem with multi-point (more than 3 values for score) STAR voting. What constitutes "5 star"? What about 0/blank vs 1 star?

Framing is important, and I think STAR would be most optimal with good ol' Likert scale (five or seven point) rather than 0-N stars. But I think even simpler is the "3-point Likert" behavior of V321: approve, disapprove, and "meh, ok."

I don't like how IRV forces me to rank candidates I may know little to nothing about (e.g. downballot randos not on "my team"). I don't really care if Kick Puppies Party is above or below Trip Grandparents Party.

Re: What Is Voter Satisfaction Efficiency?

#50
post #12
post #2

Looking at the results, it's a wonder that IRV (aka "ranked-choice voting") gets more lip service than STAR and approval voting. These latter two seem obviously and measurably superior. My guess is that it all comes down to a lack of education. Maybe civics ought to be a required course in high school and/or college?

I think there's a couple reasons. IRV has been around a lot longer and is used in other countries. (It was first used in Australia in 1893.) In the U.S. it's supported most prominently by FairVote, which seems to be a pretty well-funded organization. (FairVote calls the proposal RCV, and most media follows suit.) The main proponent of approval voting seems to be the Center for Election Science, which is a pretty smal…

IRV has a non-complicate-to-explain problem: you can screw up the ballot and invalidate your vote.

> Unlike many single-winner methods, instant-runoff cannot accept equal rankings, and must discard ballots with multiple first-preferred remaining alternatives: such ballots would be equivalent to casting multiple ballots in a plurality election

With all-the hubbub on the last election about vote validity, and hanging chads before that, the last thing we need is screw-up-able ballots.

IMHO we should not even consider any methods in which you can violate invariants on a paper ballot. That rules out FPTP, IRV, and any others where the user with pen-and-paper can enter an invalid state.

Err, I guess that rules out 321, which is my new favorite. Simple fix: just count multi Bad/Ok/Good entries toward that total. In the first round, you only look at "good" scores, ignoring ok/bad. Then in the bad round, same thing. This ensures a) you can't produce a bad ballot b) ballot counts stay orthogonal for each category c) multi-entries kinda average out.

E2: well I guess you can manage to screw up ANY style of paper ballot and violate some invariant. I guess it matters the difficulty of screwing it up and whether it's recoverable.

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