In the late '80s I started studying AI in college, fully expecting it to boom. That did not really happen, until it did. Unfortunately, most of what I learned about AI back then is pretty useless now. I started with symbolic AI: parsers, tree searches, expert systems, logic. Even then it felt like this approach was stuck in a rut. So I changed lanes and studied early ML: decision trees, genetic algo's, nearest neighb…
Ask HN: 90s programmers, what did you expect the future of tech to look like?
281–290 of 469 posts
Re: Ask HN: 90s programmers, what did you expect the future of tech to look like?
#282Not a prediction of the future, but rather something I've found quite funny over the years: watching so many things keep repeating themselves in a never-ending cycle. My two favorite have been... 1. Compiled (native) vs. interpreted (bytecode/VMs). It's this forever cycle of "performance required" that shifts to "portability required", which lacks performance, and gradually shifts back, and repeat. 2. Local processin…
I had such high hopes for Chromebooks, I actually moved so much of my day-to-day onto some digital ocean droplets, scrapped my windows pc and bought a $150 intel-based chromebook. I thought all I ever really did was VS Code, so I got code-server installed and everything else was mostly online anyway (Office 365, Exchange, Wordpress, etc), but the biggest pain point was the lack of a native terminal and ssh. Even thou…
Re: Ask HN: 90s programmers, what did you expect the future of tech to look like?
#283Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Low/no code drag-and-drop style programming tools would take away many dev jobs When I was a kid my dad refused to teach me to program, he thought it would be a useless skill to learn because he believed in the future there would be no more programmers, as everyone would be able to program anything they wanted through drag and drop interfaces.
Was your dad a programmer?
Re: Ask HN: 90s programmers, what did you expect the future of tech to look like?
#284The pace of technology change has accelerated dramatically, the complexity of software has grown beyond imagination, and perhaps correspondingly, the fragility and interdepencency has grown out of control.
We (myself included) have become so acclimated to complex software as users that we forget how much work is buried under the surface of a "simple" app. Even accurately describing the behaviors of a system is difficult now (and often not even documented, partly because it changes so often).
When I was taking flying lessons in the 90s, I couldn't believe how antiquated and manual-intensive the aircraft systems were. There seemed to be so many places where pilots needed to follow a checklist to perform manual tasks which could have been automated based on various available data. When I asked my instructor why it was so archaic, he explained that it's a long and arduous process to get new things certified by the FAA.
This difficulty in getting advanced systems approved was mostly due to the processes and tests required to ensure a very high standard of reliability and safety, since lives were at stake. At the time, I thought it was ridiculous. But seeing some of the Airbus automation problems (which cost a few aircraft and some lives), and then seeing the Boeing 737 Max disasters, I see how slower advancement, more testing, and slower release cycles can be beneficial.
But in the software world, the more modern approach is "move fast and break things". Not only is software now never complete (in contrast to when software was released once or once per n-years, on disk or CD), now it is released every 5 minutes with old bugs replaced with new bugs. There are days where every time you open an app, it needs to update first. I'm not sure this is a net improvement.
If I could say one really positive thing, it would be that tooling has gotten really nice. Even I recall when syntax highlighting arrived... and at first was laughed at. On the other hand, the better tooling is virtually required to keep up with the ballooning complexity and volume of the code we write.
I could rant and complain many more paragraphs, but it can be summarized thusly: modern software (and its development) has made some great improvements, but those improvements have been largely offset by reductions in the quality and formality of practices.
Re: Ask HN: 90s programmers, what did you expect the future of tech to look like?
#285Oh god, there were so many boneheaded 90s predictions about computers. 1) We just expected single core performance to double forever every 2 years or so. Many of us were ignorant of single-core performance scaling and the memory wall issues. I want to be clear: Computer Architects were warning people about this in the early 90s but many ignored their inconvenient truth. 2) 2D GUIs would evolve into 3D GUIs - maybe VR…
It only did not happened because they messed up with UNIX subsystem on Windows NT/2000.
Those that give Apple money to develop GNU/Linux software would be just as happy with the POSIX subsystem.
Re: Ask HN: 90s programmers, what did you expect the future of tech to look like?
#286Earlier quoted context omitted.
I expected RISC to overtake CISC much sooner than it did. I expected IPv6 to be adopted quickly. I expected 6GB to be more storage than I could ever fill. I expected Windows to be quickly dismissed and Unix to become the standard. I expected to have a screen built into my glasses by now.
> I expected Windows to be quickly dismissed and Unix to become the standard. If you count iOS and Android having a Unix core...
Re: Ask HN: 90s programmers, what did you expect the future of tech to look like?
#287Earlier quoted context omitted.
> 3) Low/no code drag-and-drop style programming tools would take away many dev jobs I started programming as a kid in the early 90s, and went to college in the late 90s/early 00s. It might sound crazy in hindsight, but between these tools and outsourcing, everyone I talked to thought being a programmer was going to be a dead end minimum wage type job, and I was strongly advised by many to pick a different major.
I started my CS degree in 2000, I heard the same, companies would rather fly someone from India over then hire you. Also my CS advisor said "Java will be the only language anyone uses in 20 years"
Re: Ask HN: 90s programmers, what did you expect the future of tech to look like?
#288What many people thought was that the shift to object-oriented development, object oriented RPC systems (CORBA, "JavaBeans", some stuff in J2EE, OLE, etc) and CASE/modeling tools (UML, Rational Rose etc.) would turn the market into more of an automated component oriented system, with a marketplace of ready made components and more reliable systems with a faster time to market etc. Lots and lots of books sold about OO…
In one sense it failed because all it ever saves you is the typing. You still have to learn the whole model, sometimes it is like learning a programming language from scratch.
On the other hand, it may have succeeded. Objects don't exist in isolation but as a library with other objects and frameworks, and APIs are basically object models. You could think of React or the stripe api as object universes.
What is interesting is that you can't sell a developer product like a commercial products. Developers need access to the code so you either make it open source, and sell consulting, or else you make it a web api and rent it out.
Re: Ask HN: 90s programmers, what did you expect the future of tech to look like?
#289Earlier quoted context omitted.
> 3) Low/no code drag-and-drop style programming tools would take away many dev jobs I started programming as a kid in the early 90s, and went to college in the late 90s/early 00s. It might sound crazy in hindsight, but between these tools and outsourcing, everyone I talked to thought being a programmer was going to be a dead end minimum wage type job, and I was strongly advised by many to pick a different major.
During my college internship (2010) I was told that my CS degree would be totally worthless and I should focus on electrical engineering (though that would've been fine too tbh)...oh, and that I should put all the money I could into gold and guns...the dude was a nut is what I'm saying.
Re: Ask HN: 90s programmers, what did you expect the future of tech to look like?
#290As a 90s kid, I thought the internet would be more censorship resistant and less corporatized than it is today.
It still is. But nobody is using that feature. People choose to centralize and visit the same 10 sites and to avoid self-hosting. Nothing is preventing society from using the internet in that way, but it's sooo much easier for the average non-tech person to not self-host an email server versus using something like gmail. It's the same reason I do not own a lift for my car.. sure technically I can install a lift at my…