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Andrej Karpathy (Tesla): CVPR 2021 Workshop on Autonomous Vehicles [video]

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Re: Andrej Karpathy (Tesla): CVPR 2021 Workshop on Autonomous Vehicles [video]

#131

Post by nickik »

jowday wrote: post #15
ketamine__ wrote: post #11

I've read claims that they are desperately trying to hire. https://mobile.twitter.com/TaylorOgan/status/140705191831739...

Anecdata but both of the people I know that worked on Autopilot quit within 18 months of starting, citing extreme overwork and Musk micromanaging things. This lines up with that.

People have been claiming the same thing about SpaceX and Tesla for 20+ years now doesn't seem to stop them. Having a small sample size theater about people you personally know isn't really representative.

Re: Andrej Karpathy (Tesla): CVPR 2021 Workshop on Autonomous Vehicles [video]

#132

Post by aiddun »

nickik wrote: post #126
aiddun wrote: post #96

Per "it's unscalable to get HD 3D maps of all the roads on earth", it's interesting to consider that Google/Waymo has been growing this for years with street view and the sensors on each car. Curious to see how that plays out

HD 3D maps need to be way more accurate and be enriched with massive amounts of detail. Like where lights are, what lights are relevant for what lanes and so on. You can't just pull out your street view footage from 3 years ago.

Good point. Street view cars since 2017 have had high def Lidar sensors on them[0], and they have some prowess in extracting features [1], but I'm not sure if that's enough detail.

[0] https://www.geoweeknews.com/blogs/google-putting-lidar-new-s...

[1] https://www.androidpolice.com/2021/01/16/google-maps-is-roll...

Re: Andrej Karpathy (Tesla): CVPR 2021 Workshop on Autonomous Vehicles [video]

#133

Post by aimkey »

nickik wrote: post #129
aimkey wrote: post #102

What an annoying charlatan. Karpathy is a brilliant computer vision engineer, but he has let his expertise in that subfield cloud his judgement on achieving the overall goal of autonomous driving. Musk and Karpathy have been dead wrong about LIDAR for years. Remember Musk making the absurd claim of a million Tesla robotaxis by 2020? I think most hilarious is that both Karpathy and Musk claim the LIDAR systems are too…

> Musk and Karpathy have been dead wrong about LIDAR for years. Right, because all those companies that use LIDAR are making billions driving people around. Oh, wait, actually they are burning 100 of millions every year. > I think most hilarious is that both Karpathy and Musk claim the LIDAR systems are too expensive. That's literally the opposite of what Musk says about Lidar. He LITERALLY said he wouldn't use them…

>It seems really what you are saying is not that Tesla are charlatan but the whole industry is.

The entire industry has an air of charlatanism. Tesla is the biggest charlatan of the bunch. The LIDAR-using ventures at least have a snowball's chance in hell. Tesla has no chance with vision alone.

Re: Andrej Karpathy (Tesla): CVPR 2021 Workshop on Autonomous Vehicles [video]

#134

Post by kortex »

aimkey wrote: post #125
kortex wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Re: senses - have you ever played a driving sim? You can drive just fine with vision without tactile. Sirens are primarily a means to get you to look in a direction. 360° cameras can notice the emergency vehicle as soon as it's visually relevant. And if they decide they need an audio siren detector, that's like, practically intern level signals detection at this point. Hardly a dealbreaker. 100% hands-down would pick…

Mentioning the senses wasn't meant to be an itemization of "senses" that a car or car operator needs. Of course you can still drive decently while deaf and without feeling the g-forces. The point is that vision is NOT the only input. In semi modern (non-self-driving) cars, the driver is still assisted by a flurry of additional vehicle sensors in addition to vision and the other human senses. So dismissing LIDAR as "n…

My understanding is that LIDAR is diminished on the aspect of not just "not needed," but also potentially exacerbating local minima under good (e.g. fair weather) conditions.

Having LIDAR means you can rely on LIDAR, which means you need the LIDAR to be 100% reliable. I've read some companies claiming their lidar works through rain and snow but I haven't seen actual renders of it yet to judge for myself.

No lidar acts as a forcing function for Tesla to get their vision system that much more reliable. I think this will ultimately result in a better vision system than the competitors, and I believe that (somewhat paradoxically) this will result in an overall better, safer, and more reliable system, when it comes to the 20% long tail.

Lidar+vision will probably dominate in fair weather driving. I'm skeptical it's of much benefit in bad weather, and that long tail is the hard part.

Re: Andrej Karpathy (Tesla): CVPR 2021 Workshop on Autonomous Vehicles [video]

#135

Post by ra7 »

sumnuyungi wrote: post #130
stefan_ wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You have fallen victim to the trap that this video so perfectly laid out for you. Tesla used the mmWave radar that has been in cars forever since it's a good way to do emergency braking and things like adaptive cruise control, particularly when you are a new company and you need these capabilities on your luxury sedan from day one. Now that they are much further along in their FSD efforts, they realize this mmWave ra…

Didn't Andrej show examples of emergency braking and how poorly radar performed v. vision?

He showed how poorly their outdated radar performed. The rest of the industry uses newer, vastly superior radars.

Re: Andrej Karpathy (Tesla): CVPR 2021 Workshop on Autonomous Vehicles [video]

#136

Post by dragonwriter »

kortex wrote: post #134
aimkey wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Mentioning the senses wasn't meant to be an itemization of "senses" that a car or car operator needs. Of course you can still drive decently while deaf and without feeling the g-forces. The point is that vision is NOT the only input. In semi modern (non-self-driving) cars, the driver is still assisted by a flurry of additional vehicle sensors in addition to vision and the other human senses. So dismissing LIDAR as "n…

My understanding is that LIDAR is diminished on the aspect of not just "not needed," but also potentially exacerbating local minima under good (e.g. fair weather) conditions. Having LIDAR means you can rely on LIDAR, which means you need the LIDAR to be 100% reliable. I've read some companies claiming their lidar works through rain and snow but I haven't seen actual renders of it yet to judge for myself. No lidar act…

> No lidar acts as a forcing function for Tesla to get their vision system that much more reliable.

Alternatively, no LIDAR means you aren't gathering corresponding LIDAR and vision data that you can use to improve detection of the vision system.

Re: Andrej Karpathy (Tesla): CVPR 2021 Workshop on Autonomous Vehicles [video]

#137

Post by nickik »

andyxor wrote: post #8

I like Andrej from his PhD research days and awesome blog posts but this is a series of disasters in the making, that is until FTC steps in after more people die from “self-driving” accidents under interesting and unexpected circumstances. The whole vision vs. LIDAR stuff is a distraction as long as Tesla “AI” doesn’t have common sense. It literally doesn’t know what it’s doing, and the tail of edge cases to "fit" th…

> ANNs are fundamentally backwards looking and cannot adapt to unforeseen or even slightly unusual combination of circumstances. It will go fine for n miles and will dramatically fail at mile n+1 where a new situation requires understanding of ones surroundings, and n is arbitrary number.

And humans also fail after some arbitrary number of m+1 miles. And in many cases far more catastrophically then AI.

Re: Andrej Karpathy (Tesla): CVPR 2021 Workshop on Autonomous Vehicles [video]

#138

Post by _ea1k »

bluepanda928752 wrote: post #34

Tesla's decision not to use the LIDAR as a safety feature (i.e. having reliable high-resolution data about things the car can collide with) is so incredibly indefensible, since solving the last 1% of this using only vision likely requires a general artificial intelligence Prediction: Tesla will be the last of all major auto manufacturers to get to L5 autonomy. Time interval between when Tesla L5 FSD is finally availa…

> solving the last 1% of this using only vision likely requires a general artificial intelligence

That is likely close to true with lidar as well. See also some of Waymo's recent struggles in unexpected construction zones.

Maybe lidar helps in getting there, but I'm afraid they all hit a pretty tough ceiling without this.

Re: Andrej Karpathy (Tesla): CVPR 2021 Workshop on Autonomous Vehicles [video]

#139

Post by sumnuyungi »

ra7 wrote: post #135
sumnuyungi wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Didn't Andrej show examples of emergency braking and how poorly radar performed v. vision?

He showed how poorly their outdated radar performed. The rest of the industry uses newer, vastly superior radars.

What radar did Tesla use? What does the rest of the industry use?

Re: Andrej Karpathy (Tesla): CVPR 2021 Workshop on Autonomous Vehicles [video]

#140

Post by minwcnt5 »

cs702 wrote: post #63
bluepanda928752 wrote: post #34

Tesla's decision not to use the LIDAR as a safety feature (i.e. having reliable high-resolution data about things the car can collide with) is so incredibly indefensible, since solving the last 1% of this using only vision likely requires a general artificial intelligence Prediction: Tesla will be the last of all major auto manufacturers to get to L5 autonomy. Time interval between when Tesla L5 FSD is finally availa…

I strongly disagree. By all measures I've seen (including a couple of slides in the OP's video), Tesla's self-driving is far safer than human driving: the number of accidents and deaths per mile driven are something like an order of magnitude lower (i.e., around 10x safer). I mean, the machine never gets distracted, tired, sleepy, emotional, drunk, etc., so it is a LOT LESS likely to crash on boring, monotonous road…

Of course autopilot and FSD are safer than unaided human driving. That's because a human is still required to be in ultimate control. They are aids to the human, not replacements for the human.
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