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Andrej Karpathy (Tesla): CVPR 2021 Workshop on Autonomous Vehicles [video]

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Re: Andrej Karpathy (Tesla): CVPR 2021 Workshop on Autonomous Vehicles [video]

#81

Post by donio »

tokipin wrote: post #46
bluepanda928752 wrote: post #34

Tesla's decision not to use the LIDAR as a safety feature (i.e. having reliable high-resolution data about things the car can collide with) is so incredibly indefensible, since solving the last 1% of this using only vision likely requires a general artificial intelligence Prediction: Tesla will be the last of all major auto manufacturers to get to L5 autonomy. Time interval between when Tesla L5 FSD is finally availa…

I predict the opposite. Tesla sold half a million cars last year and will sell nearly one million this year. The data they have access to is increasing by orders of magnitude. I bet there is a point, let's say 20 million cars total, where they can pull so much high quality data that they will be able to surpass lidar capabilities for the purposes of self driving. The lidar/no lidar discussion is a fun one because peo…

> The data they have access to is increasing by orders of magnitude.

You can only go so far by dumping more data into it. Diminishing returns.

Re: Andrej Karpathy (Tesla): CVPR 2021 Workshop on Autonomous Vehicles [video]

#82

Post by minhazm »

AndrewKemendo wrote: post #70
cs702 wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I strongly disagree. By all measures I've seen (including a couple of slides in the OP's video), Tesla's self-driving is far safer than human driving: the number of accidents and deaths per mile driven are something like an order of magnitude lower (i.e., around 10x safer). I mean, the machine never gets distracted, tired, sleepy, emotional, drunk, etc., so it is a LOT LESS likely to crash on boring, monotonous road…

>Tesla's self-driving is far safer than human driving: the number of accidents and deaths per mile driven are something like an order of magnitude lower Still not close to good enough for people to accept: "Participants from both countries required Self Driving Vehicles to be 4-5 times as safe as Human Driven Vehicles" [0] 0: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32202821/

It’s already about 10x. But it is a bit tricky since they don’t break the numbers out by highway and local driving. Also their active safety features outside of AP also improve safety. So does it need to be 4-5x better than an already improved system that has AEB and lane departure avoidance and other safety features?

https://www.tesla.com/VehicleSafetyReport

> In the 1st quarter, we registered one accident for every 4.19 million miles driven in which drivers had Autopilot engaged. For those driving without Autopilot but with our active safety features, we registered one accident for every 2.05 million miles driven. For those driving without Autopilot and without our active safety features, we registered one accident for every 978 thousand miles driven. By comparison, NHTSA’s most recent data shows that in the United States there is an automobile crash every 484,000 miles.

Re: Andrej Karpathy (Tesla): CVPR 2021 Workshop on Autonomous Vehicles [video]

#83

Post by harikb »

cs702 wrote: post #63
bluepanda928752 wrote: post #34

Tesla's decision not to use the LIDAR as a safety feature (i.e. having reliable high-resolution data about things the car can collide with) is so incredibly indefensible, since solving the last 1% of this using only vision likely requires a general artificial intelligence Prediction: Tesla will be the last of all major auto manufacturers to get to L5 autonomy. Time interval between when Tesla L5 FSD is finally availa…

I strongly disagree. By all measures I've seen (including a couple of slides in the OP's video), Tesla's self-driving is far safer than human driving: the number of accidents and deaths per mile driven are something like an order of magnitude lower (i.e., around 10x safer). I mean, the machine never gets distracted, tired, sleepy, emotional, drunk, etc., so it is a LOT LESS likely to crash on boring, monotonous road…

Illusory superiority [1] will make us think the bad drivers are only those below average drivers. It will take a while for people to truly trust FSD just by accident stats.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illusory_superiority

Re: Andrej Karpathy (Tesla): CVPR 2021 Workshop on Autonomous Vehicles [video]

#84

Post by usmannk »

nightski wrote: post #9

It's interesting that an academic conference now feels like a marketing op for industrial research labs more than anything. His claims about how accurate their vision system is and how it is exceeding other sensors is not verifiable in any way to the public. Given how well qualified he is I am sure he is not wrong! Andrej is brilliant. But this is an academic conference right? This isn't open science, it's a discussi…

From what I have been able to tell recently, CVPR in particular is a venue where "engineered systems" get a lot of focus. I don't think this is necessarily a bad thing, nor do I think it is representative of the big ML conferences in general.

Re: Andrej Karpathy (Tesla): CVPR 2021 Workshop on Autonomous Vehicles [video]

#85

Post by daveguy »

01100011 wrote: post #49
tokipin wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I predict the opposite. Tesla sold half a million cars last year and will sell nearly one million this year. The data they have access to is increasing by orders of magnitude. I bet there is a point, let's say 20 million cars total, where they can pull so much high quality data that they will be able to surpass lidar capabilities for the purposes of self driving. The lidar/no lidar discussion is a fun one because peo…

The fallacy here is that the scale of the neural network used by Tesla is sufficient to capture the problem of driving given enough training. There is no guarantee that a reasonably priced neural network can encompass the task of driving. Having training data beyond a certain point is overrated, and Tesla's advantage in gathering it is overstated. Other companies are capturing this data as well. Is there any indicati…

I'd say the data that Tesla collects is of lower value, because it doesn't have sensor info from a different modality. Other companies are getting a good reference to ground truth for both camera to lidar and lidar to camera. I don't know how much more valuable accurate distance sensing over a 3d field is compared to not having it, but I so know it's more valuable.

It may be valuable enough to require a few petaflops less computing power.

Re: Andrej Karpathy (Tesla): CVPR 2021 Workshop on Autonomous Vehicles [video]

#86

Post by slg »

minhazm wrote: post #82
AndrewKemendo wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Tesla's self-driving is far safer than human driving: the number of accidents and deaths per mile driven are something like an order of magnitude lower Still not close to good enough for people to accept: "Participants from both countries required Self Driving Vehicles to be 4-5 times as safe as Human Driven Vehicles" [0] 0: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32202821/

It’s already about 10x. But it is a bit tricky since they don’t break the numbers out by highway and local driving. Also their active safety features outside of AP also improve safety. So does it need to be 4-5x better than an already improved system that has AEB and lane departure avoidance and other safety features? https://www.tesla.com/VehicleSafetyReport > In the 1st quarter, we registered one accident for every…

There are way too many confounding variables in those numbers for you to directly compare them like you are doing. The biggest being that Autopilot is predominately engaged in situations that are already safer than average driving.

Re: Andrej Karpathy (Tesla): CVPR 2021 Workshop on Autonomous Vehicles [video]

#87

Post by soheil »

bluepanda928752 wrote: post #34

Tesla's decision not to use the LIDAR as a safety feature (i.e. having reliable high-resolution data about things the car can collide with) is so incredibly indefensible, since solving the last 1% of this using only vision likely requires a general artificial intelligence Prediction: Tesla will be the last of all major auto manufacturers to get to L5 autonomy. Time interval between when Tesla L5 FSD is finally availa…

> is so incredibly indefensible

How can you make such a strong statement when you simply don't know how to achieve full autonomy? This reminds of the teapot orbiting the Sun argument [0]. You and people defending Lidar by their teeth don't sound too different from religious zealots who've "seen the light".

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russell%27s_teapot

Re: Andrej Karpathy (Tesla): CVPR 2021 Workshop on Autonomous Vehicles [video]

#88

Post by CrazyStat »

semi-extrinsic wrote: post #18
option wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are two fundamental reasons, in principle, vision alone can do it: 1) Humans do it with vision alone 2) You can actually predict lidar’s output with vision alone. So many systems out there actually use lidar to generate more labeled data to make lidar unnecessary

There are many things humans do with vision alone that machines can't. For instance see if a person standing 50 ft away is looking at you or at the house behind you. The human vision system operates at a bitrate equivalent of well beyond 500 gigabits per second. Resorting to "humans can do it with vision alone" is only a sufficient argument if your computer vision system can match that.

> The human vision system operates at a bitrate equivalent of well beyond 500 gigabits per second

Do you have a source for this claim? Academic sources suggest numbers 4-5 orders of magnitude smaller: 6Mbps [1], 10Mbps [2].

[1] The Oxford Companion to the Mind (1987)

[2] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1564115/

Re: Andrej Karpathy (Tesla): CVPR 2021 Workshop on Autonomous Vehicles [video]

#89

Post by [deleted] »

sadfasf122 wrote: post #53
dheera wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My prediction is that Tesla will eventually use LIDAR despite whatever they are saying now. Right now their profit model is selling cars, not autonomy, so everything is optimized for that, including the decision to not use LIDAR.

lol what? did you watch the video at all

[deleted]

Re: Andrej Karpathy (Tesla): CVPR 2021 Workshop on Autonomous Vehicles [video]

#90

Post by revscat »

karpathy wrote: post #26
ketamine__ wrote: post #11

I've read claims that they are desperately trying to hire. https://mobile.twitter.com/TaylorOgan/status/140705191831739...

For the record these are some blatant & false FUD attempts.

There is a lot of that on HN whenever Tesla is the subject.
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