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A dwarf planet coming within 11 AU of the sun over the next 10 years

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Re: A dwarf planet coming within 11 AU of the sun over the next 10 years

#181

Earlier quoted context omitted.

in Arabic (and a bunch of other languages I'm sure) it's pronounced: Oranos, I don't understand why the U in Uranus is not pronounced like the U in Ultra.

Cuz in Greek (my mother language), we pronounce "Ουρανός" as "Ouranos".

> ”Our

Good to know, I guess...

Re: A dwarf planet coming within 11 AU of the sun over the next 10 years

#182
Note that dwarf planet Ceres, which orbits the sun at ~3 AU, is larger (⌀ = 939 km) than this one (⌀ = 100–200 km). There are ~25 other known asteroids with diameters over 200 km in the asteroid belt (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_exceptional_asteroids#...).

Re: A dwarf planet coming within 11 AU of the sun over the next 10 years

#183
post #56
post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Apparently no one likes this idea. Here's mine: we nuke the planet and collect its smitherines for SCIENCE!

Let's send some boosters out there, redirect it to earth, and make a second moon. Come on people, what ever happened to doing shit cause its fuckin' rad, do you know how cool another moon would be?!

Bringing a large celestial body close to Earth would be just as smart as trying to let the aliens know that we are here. (The humanity may not be able to survive either one.)

Re: A dwarf planet coming within 11 AU of the sun over the next 10 years

#184
post #178

I say we catch that sucker, tow it into our neck of the woods as a second moon, and use it as a space port. Are there a million problems with this proposal? Yes. But would it be totally rad to do this? Also yes.

What sort of propulsion mechanisms (even those that are currently physically plausible but entirely outside our technology, so, for example, solar sails or nuclear torchships, but not, say, warp drive) could possibly be used to achieve such a task?

Nuclear would do it. Essentially use the dwarf planet itself as reaction mass, accelerating it with either nuclear thermal propulsion or a nuclear powered mass driver.

Highly impractical, and would take centuries to slow it down enough.

Re: A dwarf planet coming within 11 AU of the sun over the next 10 years

#185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It won’t do anything. Also, Carrington class events are very rare. You should worry more about space junk crashing into important things and even then it’s not much of a worry. https://warwick.ac.uk/newsandevents/pressreleases/likelihood...

> The analysis shows that ‘severe’ magnetic storms occurred in 42 out of the last 150 years, and ‘great’ super-storms occurred in 6 years out of 150 That seems extremely imminent, like in my lifetime. How many of these events would shut down tech for months or years? Are those odds worth risking civilization over?

How many? Like zero.

Big storms happen all the time. They’ll knock out a few power stations or shake up GPS and communications.

The Carrington level events are far more rare. We had a near miss in 2012. That would’ve been very exciting.

Re: A dwarf planet coming within 11 AU of the sun over the next 10 years

#186

I say we catch that sucker, tow it into our neck of the woods as a second moon, and use it as a space port. Are there a million problems with this proposal? Yes. But would it be totally rad to do this? Also yes.

Is it a comety composition? Crash it into mars for some ocean and atmosphere?

Re: A dwarf planet coming within 11 AU of the sun over the next 10 years

#187
post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Somewhat unintuitively, thanks to the Oberth effect, it can be easier to reach escape velocity closer to an object, (Humorously portrayed in https://xkcd.com/1242 ). Aside: if you are looking to learn more, I cannot recommend Kerbal Space Program enough.

I've been aware of people talking about Kerbal Space Program for years and years, but I lost interest in playing it when I heard it didn't do real N-body gravitational calculations because they were too intensive. I still find that inexplicable. To me, it sounds like saying "our calculator only does basic arithmetic on four core machines, square roots are too slow".

I'd push back against that interpretation of the developer's design choices. Kerbal's use of patched conic approximations greatly lowers the difficulty of the game (it is a game) for most players; it enables a simple and coherent UI/UX; and it guarantees fixed orbits that make difficult in-space rendezvous like the Apollo program's accessible. Like Minecraft cubes, it creates a reliable foundation of simple abstractions that people can reason about, and build complicated strategies on top of. (Wouldn't Minecraft be unplayable if instead of cubes, it was arbitrary user-defined convex polyhedra? It's like that).

Upping the realism lowers the playability: games and simulators are subtly different things. Otherwise we'd all be playing STK/Astrogator instead of Kerbal, and AutoCAD instead of Minecraft, and sitting in city hall basements debugging spreadsheets in place of Cities: Skylines. The type of limitations that distinguish games from serious simulators are not accidents and not laziness, but deliberate design choices.

I concede this makes certain interesting topics like Lagrange points / halo orbits, masscons, and orbital precession inaccessible. That's part of the tradeoff.

Re: A dwarf planet coming within 11 AU of the sun over the next 10 years

#188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What if it can be stopped in theory, but only if humanity pulls together and gets something right for once?

An object that side won't be dissuaded with any of the firepower available to us. We'd be better off trying to build bunkers or something.

Can we not attach rockets to it just to nudge enough to barely not hit it? I don’t think anyone would suggest we “America fuck yeah” a meteor with firepower.

Re: A dwarf planet coming within 11 AU of the sun over the next 10 years

#189

I say we catch that sucker, tow it into our neck of the woods as a second moon, and use it as a space port. Are there a million problems with this proposal? Yes. But would it be totally rad to do this? Also yes.

Love the creativity! That said, the moon stabilized earth’s rotation angle, giving us the seasons, and it also drives huge chunks of life ecosystems and weather with the tides. So adding a second body in rotation to Earth with such superpowers would muck with a lot of stuff along the way. Maybe put it around Mars instead?

Re: A dwarf planet coming within 11 AU of the sun over the next 10 years

#190
post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's difficult to believe that ten years from now, there'd be any serious options other than Starship and its future peers. (Incidentally, the Delta IV is already at end-of-life; ULA is replacing it with Vulcan and its Blue Origin engines. The final Delta IV-H launches are planned for 2023). https://spacenews.com/ulas-delta-4-heavy-down-to-final-five-...

I more meant that it would take at least that size-class of heavy lift launch vehicle. With Starship this would definitely be doable, and I’m really optimistic about it; I just wanted to be cautious in my predictions. I also wouldn’t be surprised if Delta IV’s life gets extended. Vulcan is facing plenty of development delays, and Blue Origin are yet to produce anything useful.

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