Baby Boom or Bust? • Hacker News Board

Re: Baby Boom or Bust?

#11

Post by noofen » Sun, Jun 20, 2021, 10:49 PM UTC

klipt wrote: post #6

lotsofpulp wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I do not see why history would be a good indicator for the article’s question anyway. The fact that birth control is easily and nearly freely available and women have gained economic independence is a big factor.

If you think about it this suggests a strong selective pressure for religious communities that consider birth control sinful.

It also suggests a strong selective pressure for uneducated, unproductive communities that do nothing but breed, take welfare, and vote.

Re: Baby Boom or Bust?

#12

Post by jackcosgrove » Sun, Jun 20, 2021, 10:53 PM UTC

Animats wrote: post #5

chronogram wrote: post #2

While the article mainly focuses on France, the world is mostly looking at China after its one-child-policy as the greatest example. France is a good example for other things though. Its extremely pro-pension policies makes it very hostile against the young. Both countries at either end of the world were spending their time breeding babies to try to feed them 50 years later.

World is mostly looking at China after its one-child-policy as the greatest example. China's one-child policy was a success. They were able to put on the brakes during the period between health care getting good and standard of living going up, which is when population goes way up. India didn't do that, and their population shot up beyond the country's water supply. France is just leveling off. Japan is in actual dec…

The effect of the one child policy was muted, since birthrates had already fallen in the years preceding the policy being enacted. And since the policy was relaxed, birthrates have not increased.

Re: Baby Boom or Bust?

#13

Post by jokethrowaway » Sun, Jun 20, 2021, 10:54 PM UTC

Animats wrote: post #5

chronogram wrote: post #2

While the article mainly focuses on France, the world is mostly looking at China after its one-child-policy as the greatest example. France is a good example for other things though. Its extremely pro-pension policies makes it very hostile against the young. Both countries at either end of the world were spending their time breeding babies to try to feed them 50 years later.

World is mostly looking at China after its one-child-policy as the greatest example. China's one-child policy was a success. They were able to put on the brakes during the period between health care getting good and standard of living going up, which is when population goes way up. India didn't do that, and their population shot up beyond the country's water supply. France is just leveling off. Japan is in actual dec…

I'm not sure India is a proof China would have faced similar outcomes.

Given China is facing a demographics decline, not introducing that policy probably wouldn't have made much difference.

It was just immoral and one more reason for unnecessary female infanticide, which is responsible for the tremendous gender unbalance the country has.

Re: Baby Boom or Bust?

#14

Post by whatshisface » Sun, Jun 20, 2021, 10:57 PM UTC

lorlou wrote: post #8

whatshisface wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Let's wait to see which country, between China and India, can fare better over the next 60 years of economic development. India might not have enough water now but the raw material for solving any problem is found in problem solvers, not the ground.

The way things stand now, there's like zero evidence that India is doing or may ever do better than China in any regard.

India has more working-age people and is facing less of a population cliff than most countries. Whatever problems can be solved by workers, they will be in a better position to solve than anyone else. The US has immigration, India accomplishes the same thing but in one country instead of two continents.

Re: Baby Boom or Bust?

#15

Post by monkeybutton » Sun, Jun 20, 2021, 11:14 PM UTC

My country (Canada) is intent on making up for falling birth rates by increasing immigration. Sometimes I wonder if it is unethical for a rich country like Canada to effectively outsource (offload?) child rearing costs and to some extent education costs to the poorer countries that we are taking immigrants from.

Re: Baby Boom or Bust?

#16

Post by stephc_int13 » Sun, Jun 20, 2021, 11:18 PM UTC

Declining birth rate was already an issue in large cities during antiquity.

I even suspect that the pro-family policies we can observe in the religions that were created afterwards were a tentative to fix this problem.

In my opinion, our species population is big enough already, and this is the main driving factor of ongoing ecological problems.

I think we can adapt to a differently shaped age structure, we don't need a pyramid.

Re: Baby Boom or Bust?

#17

Post by peterburkimsher » Sun, Jun 20, 2021, 11:23 PM UTC

klipt wrote: post #6

lotsofpulp wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I do not see why history would be a good indicator for the article’s question anyway. The fact that birth control is easily and nearly freely available and women have gained economic independence is a big factor.

If you think about it this suggests a strong selective pressure for religious communities that consider birth control sinful.

It's a little more complicated than that: not all religious groups consider all forms of birth control to be sinful, and these trends don't apply in all countries. Increased religiosity won't necessarily increase the birth rate.

Disclosure: my mum, Marion Burkimsher, is a demographic researcher specialising in this area. She's also studied fertility of migrants (the TFR statistics are skewed).

https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Marion_Burkimsher/publi...

Re: Baby Boom or Bust?

#18

Post by triceratops » Sun, Jun 20, 2021, 11:34 PM UTC

whatshisface wrote: post #7

Animats wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

World is mostly looking at China after its one-child-policy as the greatest example. China's one-child policy was a success. They were able to put on the brakes during the period between health care getting good and standard of living going up, which is when population goes way up. India didn't do that, and their population shot up beyond the country's water supply. France is just leveling off. Japan is in actual dec…

Let's wait to see which country, between China and India, can fare better over the next 60 years of economic development. India might not have enough water now but the raw material for solving any problem is found in problem solvers, not the ground.

That really depends on if India is able to successfully educate and/or provide useful skills training, health care, nutrition, and safety i.e. polish its "demographic diamonds". As well as maintain a healthy, competitive economy, rule of law, and respect for property rights - all of which creates an environment in which they can work hard and prosper.

There are countries with large young populations that struggle to make a decent living due to a lack of investment or opportunities.[1][2]

1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Egypt#Age_dist...

2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_India

Re: Baby Boom or Bust?

#19

Post by stephc_int13 » Sun, Jun 20, 2021, 11:37 PM UTC

whatshisface wrote: post #14

lorlou wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The way things stand now, there's like zero evidence that India is doing or may ever do better than China in any regard.

India has more working-age people and is facing less of a population cliff than most countries. Whatever problems can be solved by workers, they will be in a better position to solve than anyone else. The US has immigration, India accomplishes the same thing but in one country instead of two continents.

China and India already had large populations compared to the western world, two centuries ago, and yet they were not doing better from an economic or military standpoint.

Re: Baby Boom or Bust?

#20

Post by sokoloff » Sun, Jun 20, 2021, 11:43 PM UTC

monkeybutton wrote: post #15

My country (Canada) is intent on making up for falling birth rates by increasing immigration. Sometimes I wonder if it is unethical for a rich country like Canada to effectively outsource (offload?) child rearing costs and to some extent education costs to the poorer countries that we are taking immigrants from.

What’s the solution though? If Canadians don’t want to have more children, you can’t force them and you probably can’t influence them much, so your other choice is to close down the immigration, which seems like it’s less ethical than the present condition.