Google+ will burst the tech bubble

We have seen the exact same scenario during the first tech bubble. The tech darling of the time, Netscape, had it's head torn off by the 800lb gorilla (Microsoft) and that marked the beginning of the end of the DotCom bubble.

This time around the flagship startup, Facebook, now has a credible threat from Google. The difference is Facebook isn't yet a publicly traded company. And I have a funny feeling the artificially inflated valuation of Facebook is just as quickly deflating right now. If Facebook's value starts declining before it goes public it could be trouble for just about every other startup that has not already gone public.

IMO Facebook is not in any great danger from Google plus. Smaller start ups maybe, but Facebook has the not-tech-savvy market by the balls and google plus certainly isn't going to take them away. My brother, sister and father all use Facebook, none will be switching to google plus unless all their friends do, their friends won't switch unless their friends do... the Myspace/Facebook comparison doesn't work either, a large portion of Facebook users now didn't ever use Myspace, it's not as if they've moved away. Myspace was popular in the era where social networking was for teens and "nerds", Facebook rose to popularity when social networking was for everyone, google plus can't just waltz in and take all those users. Google plus is just another tech industry circle jerk, it'll be a long time before it ever comes close to harming Facebook (if it does). How many people are using google plus and not Facebook? That's what matters most. Everyone I know who uses google plus (which is a small group) is still using Facebook.

Upvoted because this is a great debate!

I think the circumstances are different in this case. Many people I know don't like Facebook or the idea of Facebook anymore, so Google may have a hard time persuading people Social Networks are still the new-new thing. In the case of Netscape, browser use was growing like crazy and still is 17 years later.

In a way Netscape helped tear it's own head off. There was the Netscape 6 nail in the coffin. The team rewrote the entire product from scratch. It's been oft quoted as an example of why not to do a rewrite. Facebook's engineering team appears to be strong on the surface.

There is no network effect with browsers and social networks have the strongest network effect of them all. So Google has to overcome that too.

Google does use second-mover advantage to great effect though, as MS has. Imitating is fun when you're a monopoly with a great engineering team. Companies they've taken ideas from:

Symbian

Nokia

Hotmail

Apple's App Store

iOS

MapQuest

Yahoo Finance

Altavista and all other search engines.

GoTo.com (first PPC ads)

It's not like you have to choose Facebook xor Google+. You can use both.

For me, it's looking like I'll use Facebook to keep up with old schoolmates and relatives, and I'll use Google+ for keeping up with other circles (e.g. photographers and tech reporters).

TV didn't kill radio.

I think all of the complaints about Facebook policies have finally caught up with the company. Respecting your privacy is not about allowing users to create private groups or circles. It's about respect. When you sign up to a service offered by a company and accept its terms and conditions, you expect that company to respect those terms and conditions, but if those terms and those conditions keep changing all the time, people are going to be pissed off.

I noticed this with people who have looked at and reviewed Google+. They all make a comment about how the privacy settings are better or easier to access or less intrusive. This small factor is almost always mentioned, including in this video:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6-llwYjxv8Y