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Linus Torvalds on mRNA Vaccines

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Re: Linus Torvalds on mRNA Vaccines

#601

Post by lodi »

quanticle wrote: post #506
avz wrote: post #325

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> [...] lots of people see what looks like the "story changing", and distrust anything coming out of their government, [...]. Changing and updating our beliefs as evidence comes in is a fundamental ability that underlies numerous activities from scientific research to debugging software to driving on a congested road network. Why is it a problem for public health officials to update and change policy as we learn more…

The problem isn't that our authorities are changing their beliefs based on new evidence coming in. The problem is that our authorities are changing beliefs based on the current political situation, pretending that that reflects shifting evidence and, worst of all, not admitting that they've changed their views. Let's take the current debate over the "lab leak" hypothesis as an example. A large amount of the evidence,…

This is an excellent summary; thank you.

> ... no media outlet ever admitted that it had given incorrect advice... Instead, we see silent corrections that rewrite the past without admitting any kind of fault.

As I read this I was overcome with the realization that I have more discipline editing my 2-3 point HN comments--labeling new remarks, striking out original text instead of deleting it outright, and so on--than do professional journalists from the New York Times or Washington Post editing national news stories. Unbelievable... and unforgivable.

Re: Linus Torvalds on mRNA Vaccines

#602

Post by lodi »

XorNot wrote: post #599
orwin wrote: post #510

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At the time, i was asking myself why the lab-leak was rejected. I mean, its obviously not human-made, but why couldn't it be a contagion inside the lab from an already made virus. Now, maybe its reactance, but i believe the zoonose more likely.

Because, if there was a non-human made virus being studied in a lab which was human-infectious...then that virus would already be out there in the wild unless you'd made a specific effort to eradicate it like we did with smallpox. "Lab-leak" is non-sensical in all forms which don't begin with "lab evolved/bioengineered" and while not completely implausible, the methodology for selective rapid-evolution of a virus req…

> "Lab-leak" is non-sensical in all forms which don't begin with "lab evolved/bioengineered"...

That's exactly the allegation circa March 2020 though: scientists collect various bat-borne coronaviruses (e.g. RaTG13) in Yunnan province around 2013, evolve one of them at the Wuhan Institute of Virology though gain-of-function research, and then due to lax safety protocols end up accidentally leaking an evolved virus in late 2019. For example, see this podcast from a year ago: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q5SRrsr-Iug

Re: Linus Torvalds on mRNA Vaccines

#604

Post by lodi »

quanticle wrote: post #525
orwin wrote: post #510

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At the time, i was asking myself why the lab-leak was rejected. I mean, its obviously not human-made, but why couldn't it be a contagion inside the lab from an already made virus. Now, maybe its reactance, but i believe the zoonose more likely.

Yes, for the record, I believed then (and still believe today) that the virus has zoonotic origins. The primary point of evidence that the lab-leak advocates point to, the fact that the animal reservoir hasn't yet been identified, isn't convincing to me. It took more than a decade to find the animal reservoir for SARS. We still don't know where the animal reservoir is for Ebola. Similarly, the presence of the "furin…

> But all that is beside the point. The point is that many voices that took on the air of authority during the pandemic changed their view for no reason other than shifts in the broader political climate.

Not only did they take an air of authority, they also actively censored contrary opinions. Twitter, facebook, youtube...

Re: Linus Torvalds on mRNA Vaccines

#605

Post by lodi »

SECProto wrote: post #265
baobabKoodaa wrote: post #237

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The "magic" from vaccinations comes from vaccinating most of the population so that the epidemic fizzles out. In that scenario it doesn't matter that much whether you personally are vaccinated or not. An unvaccinated person benefits from herd immunity like a vaccinated person does. From the viewpoint of a healthy young person, the risk/reward ratio of taking a vaccine is bad.

> From the viewpoint of a healthy young person, the risk/reward ratio of taking a vaccine is bad. Absolutely false. The disease can and does have severe and sometimes long-lasting impacts on young healthy people. The mRNA vaccines don't have any impact worse than a sore arm. And we aren't getting to a herd immunity level of vaccination if young people are unvaccinated.

> The mRNA vaccines don't have any impact worse than a sore arm.

This is just logically untrue. The absolute most you can claim is that "these vaccines don't have any impact worse than a sore arm, that we know of, within the 18 month period that they've been available". Neither you nor anyone else can speak to long-term effects until we wait it out and see, nevermind true "unknown unknowns".

Re: Linus Torvalds on mRNA Vaccines

#606

Post by lodi »

kaba0 wrote: post #369
mandmandam wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not all vaccines are the same, so pro science and anti vaxx are not always opposed. I am pro science, but science doesn't claim that all vaccines are safe. And let's not forget that pharma co's have tried very hard to make vaccines mandatory, to the point of bribing academics and officials, forming unaccountable PR groups, and in the not so distant past they've done truly horrific and inhuman things. After the lab-le…

> I am pro science, but science doesn't claim that all vaccines are safe Indeed. But science does claim that Pfizer, Moderna, etc COVID-vaccines are safe and you are un-scientific if you claim otherwise. They went through proper trials, and were accepted independently* by many countries. * not completely independently I’m sure, but my point is that even if you don’t trust your country at all, several other ones decid…

> They went through proper trials...

No they haven't. They were approved for emergency use only. New vaccines usually take 6-7 years to complete clinical trials.

https://www.modernatx.com/covid19vaccine-eua/

Re: Linus Torvalds on mRNA Vaccines

#607

Post by kaba0 »

User23 wrote: post #577
tim333 wrote: post #511

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>the 30 minutes of mRNA half-life of the vaccine. I think you'll find it's much longer that that for the vaccine. Apparently it hangs around about a week. The mRNA is modified to last longer than natural mRNA.

There is still an awful lot we don't know about cellular biology, so I'm always a bit baffled when people that should know better say that this or that is (virtually) impossible. Fortunately, we're running the largest phase 4 clinical trial in human history, so in 25 years or so we'll have some absolutely great longitudinal data.

mRNA is continuously produced by every living cell in your body. How come then that you don’t get ridiculously many duplicated copies of the created mRNAs, something that only happens at an evolutionary timescale? You have multiple orders of magnitudes more naturally created mRNA, why isn’t there a concern for that?

Re: Linus Torvalds on mRNA Vaccines

#608

Post by bmn__ »

tekknik wrote: post #597
bmn__ wrote: post #560

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is a vast gulf between what is preached and what adherents do or don't do. Knowing human nature, I think all religions have suffered abuse in the form of having peace on paper, but inciting hate through opportunists.

> There is a vast gulf between what is preached and what adherents do or don't do. Oh ffs evidence plz.

30 year war, Ahlam Tamimi bombing, wars of suppression against Bön

Re: Linus Torvalds on mRNA Vaccines

#609

Post by kaba0 »

lodi wrote: post #606
kaba0 wrote: post #369

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I am pro science, but science doesn't claim that all vaccines are safe Indeed. But science does claim that Pfizer, Moderna, etc COVID-vaccines are safe and you are un-scientific if you claim otherwise. They went through proper trials, and were accepted independently* by many countries. * not completely independently I’m sure, but my point is that even if you don’t trust your country at all, several other ones decid…

> They went through proper trials... No they haven't. They were approved for emergency use only. New vaccines usually take 6-7 years to complete clinical trials. https://www.modernatx.com/covid19vaccine-eua/

> New vaccines usually take 6-7 years to complete clinical trials

Not necessarily. The yearly updated flu shot doesn’t for example. This case is similar, the novel technique itself was in development for a decade now with different parts having been clinically tested.

Re: Linus Torvalds on mRNA Vaccines

#610

Post by Nursie »

boruto wrote: post #573
tim333 wrote: post #507

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm pro the passport thing, at least for travel, so life can go back to normal and I can say fly from UK to Italy and back without 5 pcr tests and 10 days isolating in spite of being basically immune. At least the EU are bringing them in in a couple of weeks and I imagine other countries will follow. The EU one I think allows for immunity from catching covid so if you are anti vax and want to go that route you can.

I don't get it, You are immune but you can still spread the virus. What is the difference between allowing someone who is vaccinated and someone who has covid without symptoms.

Vaccinated people are far less contagious for a far shorter time. As a result they represent a far lower risk of bringing the virus in or of helping community transmission once there.

At the time vaccine rollout began we weren’t sure of this effect, but the evidence from places like Israel is showing it pretty well.

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