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China: High GDP, 64 million empty apartments.

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Re: China: High GDP, 64 million empty apartments.

#61

Post by w1ntermute »

math wrote: post #55
w1ntermute wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What kind of work do you do? I'm in college (CS major) now and am planning to start freelancing on the internet soon and continue that as my permanent job after I graduate. If I relocate abroad to a developing country but pretend to be located in America (just use my parents' address or something), I could make a killing off of this sort of thing and have a relatively high standard of living in a country like Cambodi…

I develop software. I did this for 10 years in Australia before moving here and because of this have relationships with Australian companies that would allow me to do contracting work remotely for good money if that is what I wanted (however at the moment I'm working on personal projects, currently backrecord.com). You are right - GNI per person in Australia is ~$42k (assume it is similar for USA). GNI per person her…

> GNI per person in Australia is ~$42k (assume it is similar for USA). GNI per person here is $650. So you live like a king.

Yeah, US is $46k according to Google. Can you afford a chef, maid, and chauffeur? That would be absolutely awesome! (Sorry if I sound a little too giddy; I come from a lower middle class, rural background, and the thought of doing software development while living like a king in a faraway tropical paradise sounds absolutely magical.)

> btw: I don't think you'd ever get away with pretending to be located in America.

Why is this (honest question, I really don't know much about freelancing yet)? The time difference? For phone calls, I'd use Skype to get an American number I could give clients, and my parents would have no problems scanning & emailing any documents that might arrive in the snail mail.

Re: China: High GDP, 64 million empty apartments.

#62

Post by w1ntermute »

math wrote: post #56
w1ntermute wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Some more questions: Is it difficult to wire money from America to developing countries like Cambodia? For those cases where the people don't speak English, is it particularly difficult to learn the language when you're actually immersed in it on a daily basis? What is the local social scene like? Is there a large expat community? If not, are the natives welcoming? Hopefully it'd be possible to get some action. I don…

You can open a bank account at all banks if you have a local job. If not, Foreign Trade Bank are the ones to go with. Transferring money is no problem (though the service I use to get a good rate - ozforex.com.au ask additional questions). I've tried to learn Chinese and (a little bit of) Khmer. Khmer is much easier than Chinese, you'll pick up lots. But it's not essential. It is VERY social, unlike any other place I…

> I've tried to learn Chinese and (a little bit of) Khmer. Khmer is much easier than Chinese, you'll pick up lots. But it's not essential.

Is Chinese used there as well, or was that just a hobby? According to Wikipedia, it looks like Khmer, unlike most SE Asian nations, is not tonal. That'd make things a lot easier for a tone deaf person like me.

> It is VERY social, unlike any other place I've lived. Don't worry, the local girls will love you.

What about the political climate? Is it less oppressive than China, or about the same or worse?

Re: China: High GDP, 64 million empty apartments.

#63

Post by whatwhatwhat »

w1ntermute wrote: post #61
math wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I develop software. I did this for 10 years in Australia before moving here and because of this have relationships with Australian companies that would allow me to do contracting work remotely for good money if that is what I wanted (however at the moment I'm working on personal projects, currently backrecord.com). You are right - GNI per person in Australia is ~$42k (assume it is similar for USA). GNI per person her…

> GNI per person in Australia is ~$42k (assume it is similar for USA). GNI per person here is $650. So you live like a king. Yeah, US is $46k according to Google. Can you afford a chef, maid, and chauffeur? That would be absolutely awesome! (Sorry if I sound a little too giddy; I come from a lower middle class, rural background, and the thought of doing software development while living like a king in a faraway tropi…

Because you aren't actually in America.

Re: China: High GDP, 64 million empty apartments.

#64

Post by w1ntermute »

whatwhatwhat wrote: post #63
w1ntermute wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> GNI per person in Australia is ~$42k (assume it is similar for USA). GNI per person here is $650. So you live like a king. Yeah, US is $46k according to Google. Can you afford a chef, maid, and chauffeur? That would be absolutely awesome! (Sorry if I sound a little too giddy; I come from a lower middle class, rural background, and the thought of doing software development while living like a king in a faraway tropi…

Because you aren't actually in America.

Yes, I already gleaned that much. My question is how a client I would only communicate with over the internet and/or phone could possibly know this.

Re: China: High GDP, 64 million empty apartments.

#65

Post by whatwhatwhat »

yaix wrote: post #49
zoowar wrote: post #12

Ghost cities also keep construction workers employed.

Why is this downvoted? It is a valid point. Especially in 2008/09 they were rebuilding every second road in the Chinese city I life in, even though the roads where perfectly fine and had just been finished a few years earlier. Same for apartment buildings. They can not just stop building them, because there are literally tens of millions of people getting their income from constructing those buildings.

>They can not just stop building them, because there are literally tens of millions of people getting their income from constructing those buildings.

Don't you see why this is obviously disastrous? There are so many analogies that can be drawn -- that I'm not even going to try. If you don't see why this is obviously ridiculous then read some stuff about the invisible hand of the market (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invisible_hand). It is only a valid point from the narrow perspective of the workers involved and the employers of those workers selling their services.

Re: China: High GDP, 64 million empty apartments.

#66

Post by wallflower »

w1ntermute wrote: post #61
math wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I develop software. I did this for 10 years in Australia before moving here and because of this have relationships with Australian companies that would allow me to do contracting work remotely for good money if that is what I wanted (however at the moment I'm working on personal projects, currently backrecord.com). You are right - GNI per person in Australia is ~$42k (assume it is similar for USA). GNI per person her…

> GNI per person in Australia is ~$42k (assume it is similar for USA). GNI per person here is $650. So you live like a king. Yeah, US is $46k according to Google. Can you afford a chef, maid, and chauffeur? That would be absolutely awesome! (Sorry if I sound a little too giddy; I come from a lower middle class, rural background, and the thought of doing software development while living like a king in a faraway tropi…

> > btw: I don't think you'd ever get away with pretending to be located in America.

If you are an American citizen, you have an obligation to pay income tax on your earnings. The same goes for many countries.

Re: China: High GDP, 64 million empty apartments.

#67

Post by joshwa »

yaix wrote: post #54
joshwa wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What city are you in? You could very easily be describing where I am (Kunming) but I suppose it really applies to pretty much every city in China with >1mm residents.

I'm in Hangzhou, currently the most expensive city when it comes to housing, according to an article I read a few weeks ago. And it'll probably go further up, because there is a new bullet train and Shanghai is now only some 45 minutes away (down from about 2 hours). (I may move to Kunming later this year, the weather so much better there :)

The housing here isn't cheap, either, but neither is it outrageous. 100m2 goes for 2500-4000RMB/月. Coming from NYC and SF, though, it's a steal. :)

Ping me if you're in town.

Re: China: High GDP, 64 million empty apartments.

#69

Post by jhancock »

trevelyan wrote: post #47
jhancock wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why does the price on failed buildings have to stay high? Why couldn't the government (through a bank, likely) reclaim a bankrupt project, restructure its books and basically "give away" the units? China certainly has its share of problems. Having lots of extra housing for people to eventually move into is far from the top 10. Something related that is a bigger deal is the energy of heating and cooling housing built…

Hey Jon, What is Shanghai like these days? In Beijing there is a ton of vacant commercial real estate, but most of it seems to be owned by organizations with no need to lease (else why not lower prices?). Where developments like SOHO are competing is by selling rather than leasing smaller condo-style units. And while the market for apartments has slowed down, there are still people buying. Fifth ring road near Echo's…

From the numbers I've seen, Shanghai is not far behind Beijing...lots of available space in less desirable/developed areas, tight in others, pricing that makes no sense for buying as a home. Certainly, there is nothing "fair" about this.

What do I expect will happen? I expect a lot of people will eventually take paper losses but get to keep the home they live in at adjusted terms. Larger holdings will take losses relative to how connected they are, with a few making out very well. Municipalities will test a variety of tax schemes.

How much social instability will there be in between now and this eventuality? I can't say but can only hope level heads prevail.

Re: China: High GDP, 64 million empty apartments.

#70

Post by westiseast »

trevelyan wrote: post #3

Nicely done video, but I think it gets the story wrong. The bubble is not illogical to start with. Thanks to currency controls most people have no way to invest outside China. The Shanghai stock market meanwhile has huge problems with adverse selection (bad companies pay to list -- successful companies list in Hong Kong or the United States). There are no property taxes in most of China, so people with money park it…

I'm pretty sure that fundamental economics are the same the world around - if there's no end consumer for your product, then there's a loss somewhere. It doesn't matter who covers the loss, but there's still a loss and it's not correct to say that no-one cares.

The biggest fallacy I've heard recently about this housing situation is the oft' repeated "things are different in China" - you can't argue with basic maths like this. Surely the 2008 economic crisis was triggered by a similar situation, with western banks and investors ignoring fundamental economic equations?

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