Live data from Hacker News

Don't Feed the Thought Leaders

earthly.dev

11–20 of 289 posts

Re: Don't Feed the Thought Leaders

#11
The observation of "foxes" and "hedgehogs" is interesting to me. If it's to be believed, trepidatious granular investigation beats blanket ideological perception in predictive power... I think we're tempted to use our broad lenses to predict things, because we find our worldviews can help us decide how to live in the chaos of our world. The sheer relief of believing "Oh, what I have to do is X," or "I sincerely think the world would be better if Y" gets overextended to fuel a source of pathological comfort. We can lose the present context in it, even if our ideology is actually broadly quite correct.

Re: Don't Feed the Thought Leaders

#12
1996: OOP all the code! 2000: XML all the data! 2004: AJAX all the websites! 2008: JQuery all the browser code! 2012: Nodejs all the website backends! 2016: TypeScript all the JavaScript! 2018: Rust all the system code!

Re: Don't Feed the Thought Leaders

#14
post #9
post #2

Author here, thanks for sharing this. Let me know what you think. I'm trying to connect the dots on research on expert advice and our fields 'thought-leaders'. The connection is a bit tenuous but I think contingent advice can be shown to be better than non-contingent advice. I also think people are too confident in their opinions. Also another submission here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27462255

Great article Adam, fyi the LinkedIn link on your website is broken. Was trying to look up your history. Also Ctrl F: "beleive" -> "believe"

Thanks - I'll fix that. There aren't too many Adam Gordon Bell's out there though.

Re: Don't Feed the Thought Leaders

#15
post #2

Author here, thanks for sharing this. Let me know what you think. I'm trying to connect the dots on research on expert advice and our fields 'thought-leaders'. The connection is a bit tenuous but I think contingent advice can be shown to be better than non-contingent advice. I also think people are too confident in their opinions. Also another submission here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27462255

A side point: the hedgehog/fox analogy originated with philosopher Isaiah Berlin.

Re: Don't Feed the Thought Leaders

#17

1996: OOP all the code! 2000: XML all the data! 2004: AJAX all the websites! 2008: JQuery all the browser code! 2012: Nodejs all the website backends! 2016: TypeScript all the JavaScript! 2018: Rust all the system code!

OMG it's in four year cycles. We have six months to sell our startups and get out.

Re: Don't Feed the Thought Leaders

#18

Found this to be a straightforward and interesting article. Not sure I've ever seen someone connect Tetlock's research to engineering planning before; I certainly hadn't made the connection myself. I also appreciated the tip that instead of saying no to something, you can just add it to a "future work" section of lower-priority but definitely-still-very-important-i-promise-really-i-mean-it tasks and everyone will end…

Thanks for reading!

Yeah, the future trick is kind of interesting because it solves the immediate problem and it allows people to feel like you heard their concerns and valued their advice. If that is what they are looking for then its a great solution. If they have spotted legit problems then you need to actually reassess things.

I guess like everything it is very contingent on the environment. It worked in this specific context.

Re: Don't Feed the Thought Leaders

#19
The "we saw this problem at X place" always brothers me.

I'm old, I could come up with endless such stories that would require epic solutions, but in not sure there would be much gain. Tell me why we will hit that issue and why we can't fix it any other way... not just the vague notion of a problem someone else had for who knows what reason...

And the reason I want that level of detail is because I've failed to accurately predict such issues time and again too ;)

Re: Don't Feed the Thought Leaders

#20

Found this to be a straightforward and interesting article. Not sure I've ever seen someone connect Tetlock's research to engineering planning before; I certainly hadn't made the connection myself. I also appreciated the tip that instead of saying no to something, you can just add it to a "future work" section of lower-priority but definitely-still-very-important-i-promise-really-i-mean-it tasks and everyone will end…

From How to Talk So Kids Will Listen & Listen So Kids Will Talk (1980):

> My husband and I took Jason and his older sister, Leslie, to the Museum of Natural History. We really enjoyed it, and the kids were just great. Only on the way out we had to pass a gift shop. Jason, our four-year-old, went wild over the souvenirs. Most of the stuff was overpriced, but we finally bought him a little set of rocks. Then he started whining for a model dinosaur. I tried to explain that we had already spent more than we should have. His father told him to quit his complaining and that he should be happy for what we did buy him. Jason began to cry. My husband told him to cut it out, and that he was acting like a baby. Jason threw himself on the floor and cried louder.

> Everyone was looking at us. I was so embarrassed that I wanted the floor to open up. Then—I don’t know how the idea came to me—I pulled a pencil and paper out of my bag and started writing. Jason asked what I was doing. I said, “I’m writing that Jason wishes he had a dinosaur.” He stared at me and said, “And a prism, too.” I wrote, “A prism, too.”

> Then he did something that bowled me over. He ran over to his sister, who was watching the whole scene, and said, “Leslie, tell Mommy what you want. She’ll write it down for you, too.” And would you believe it, that ended it. He went home very peacefully.

> I’ve used the idea many times since. Whenever I’m in a toy store with Jason and he runs around pointing to everything he wants, I take out a pencil and a scrap of paper and write it all down on his “wish list.” That seems to satisfy him. And it doesn’t mean I have to buy any of the things for him—unless maybe it’s a special occasion. I guess what Jason likes about his “wish list” is that it shows that I not only know what he wants but that I care enough to put it in writing.

Post reply on HN