Linus Torvalds on mRNA Vaccines • Hacker News Board

Re: Linus Torvalds on mRNA Vaccines

#351

Post by dlp211 » Thu, Jun 10, 2021, 11:59 PM UTC

trutannus wrote: post #133

pciexpgpu wrote: post #18

This is good. Now states are combating such hesitancy by drawing lottery for vaccinated folks. Like, having this magic, absolutely mind boggling potion that prevents serious illness and death *isn't* already the lottery win of our lifetime?? People in India and elsewhere are dying because of lack of vaccines and here we have educated, first world countries struggle to get their citizens vaccinated. Unfortunately sham…

> Like, having this magic, absolutely mind boggling potion that prevents serious illness and death isn't already the lottery win of our lifetime A lot of it boils down to people not trusting what they're seeing. Frankly, governments have done the world a disservice by speaking before they really had all the information at the start of the pandemic. In Canada at least an insane amount of what was said turned out to be…

It turns out that not all things can be known and when giving advice, you go with the best known data...which at times can be wrong. This is literally how science works. We don't always have the liberty to wait for a near certain answer.

And the experts haven't been wrong for a year and a half, the experts were working with bad or incomplete data for a few months. Their advice for the past year, wear masks, socially distance, get the vaccine, has been correct.

Re: Linus Torvalds on mRNA Vaccines

#352

Post by derekp7 » Fri, Jun 11, 2021, 12:01 AM UTC

avz wrote: post #325

trutannus wrote: post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Like, having this magic, absolutely mind boggling potion that prevents serious illness and death isn't already the lottery win of our lifetime A lot of it boils down to people not trusting what they're seeing. Frankly, governments have done the world a disservice by speaking before they really had all the information at the start of the pandemic. In Canada at least an insane amount of what was said turned out to be…

> [...] lots of people see what looks like the "story changing", and distrust anything coming out of their government, [...]. Changing and updating our beliefs as evidence comes in is a fundamental ability that underlies numerous activities from scientific research to debugging software to driving on a congested road network. Why is it a problem for public health officials to update and change policy as we learn more…

The problem is that the a large chunk of the population aren't scientist so they don't understand the principles of the scientific method. And they aren't software developers, they don't have the mindset for it. And have you seen the way many people drive? There is a reason why the term "defensive driving" was coined.

Re: Linus Torvalds on mRNA Vaccines

#353

Post by cameldrv » Fri, Jun 11, 2021, 12:02 AM UTC

carbocation wrote: post #107

swader999 wrote: post #70

Ivermectin and HCQ sure got shut down hard even though recent studies are giving them some credit. If they had been a valid option, emergency use authorisation wouldn't have been granted. I honestly don't know what to think about all of this. I've seen a lot of censorship and stifling of speech. Reading Fauci's emails also makes me hesitate. I think trust in the experts will really take a hit going forward. I did get…

Will you share your sources re: "recent studies giving [HCQ and ivermectin] credit"? I haven't seen anything positive about those drugs in COVID-19 in human patients. For example, the RECOVERY trial showed no benefit (and non-significant numerical harm) for HCQ: https://www.nejm.org/doi/10.1056/NEJMoa2022926

There are a lot of studies of varying quality, some of which show benefit for IVM and HCQ. One place to find some of these compiled is https://hcqmeta.com. Beware that they don't say what their study inclusion criteria is, so one has to be more skeptical of studies that have a small N and/or high P value.

The RECOVERY results for HCQ were definitely negative. Personally I'm neutral on its effectiveness, but HCQ proponents would probably say that HCQ's postulated antiviral mechanism is not effective on already hospitalized patients, since most of them would have already cleared the virus by the time they showed up to the hospital.

Re: Linus Torvalds on mRNA Vaccines

#354

Post by caeril » Fri, Jun 11, 2021, 12:03 AM UTC

barbazoo wrote: post #258

mnouquet wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> prevents serious illness and death Only in 60+ patients with co-morbidity.

>> prevents serious illness and death > Only in 60+ patients with co-morbidity. That's false. See [1] for data on deaths by age in the US. There's about 115,000 deaths in the age groups [1] https://www.statista.com/statistics/1191568/reported-deaths-...

GP should have said "or with co-morbidities".

Digging into the A year of largely ineffective masking hysteria and not one noteworthy public health figure suggested putting down the donut to reduce the risk of death from COVID-19.

We shuttered gyms and discouraged outdoor activity instead.

Re: Linus Torvalds on mRNA Vaccines

#355

Post by derekp7 » Fri, Jun 11, 2021, 12:03 AM UTC

E8zrhvz8qWbPolu wrote: post #278

trutannus wrote: post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Like, having this magic, absolutely mind boggling potion that prevents serious illness and death isn't already the lottery win of our lifetime A lot of it boils down to people not trusting what they're seeing. Frankly, governments have done the world a disservice by speaking before they really had all the information at the start of the pandemic. In Canada at least an insane amount of what was said turned out to be…

I'm in Canada. I don't like the policy of one dose for everyone first. I believe the right thing to do is to vaccinate the most vulnerable groups with two shots first. So, what I'm doing is waiting until second doses are being offered to my age group before signing up for my first dose. I'm not anti-vax by any means, but that doesn't mean I think the government is doing a superlative job either.

Something I haven't seen discussed is what would have happened if the initial shots went to the 20-35 year old crowd (the ones that are out and about, partying, and have a number of super spreaders in that cohort)? Would that have done more to stop the virus spread then to vaccinate the more vulnerable (but already self isolated) people first? This would never be an option politically, but I'd like to know if it would have had a better shot of stopping the virus spread?

Re: Linus Torvalds on mRNA Vaccines

#356

Post by kaba0 » Fri, Jun 11, 2021, 12:04 AM UTC

splithalf wrote: post #299

chris_va wrote: post #204

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Some class of vaccine hesitancy boils down to miscalculating expected value. The expected value of getting a vaccine is very high, but people choose not to anyway, presumably due to misinformation or miscalculation. Lotteries here are exploiting miscalculations of expected value to incentivize behavior (0.1% of saving my life? phaw, but $100 expected value?!). It feels a bit like patching a security bug with its own…

Some is the opposite: people know they are safe with or without it, and because there an infinitesimally small risk and very little direct personal benefit for young healthy people and then make the “rational” but myopic choice to not get vaccinated. The benefits are mostly to communities and older people, healthcare and other essential workers. A less myopic self interested rationalist might decide that despite it h…

I think the problem is more that they don’t understand that it is not a zero sum game of getting vaccinated with a tiny but some chance for adverse side-effects vs going on with life. It is taking a vaccine with 90%+ rate of success with exceedingly small side effects vs having a kind of high chance of getting a virus that has yet again quite a high chance of not being “just a flu” and causing long-lasting (perhaps even for a lifetime) health issues.

Of course we ideally should also take into account the community benefits, but even on a personal level it is a net plus.

Re: Linus Torvalds on mRNA Vaccines

#357

Post by DoreenMichele » Fri, Jun 11, 2021, 12:05 AM UTC

trutannus wrote: post #133

pciexpgpu wrote: post #18

This is good. Now states are combating such hesitancy by drawing lottery for vaccinated folks. Like, having this magic, absolutely mind boggling potion that prevents serious illness and death *isn't* already the lottery win of our lifetime?? People in India and elsewhere are dying because of lack of vaccines and here we have educated, first world countries struggle to get their citizens vaccinated. Unfortunately sham…

> Like, having this magic, absolutely mind boggling potion that prevents serious illness and death isn't already the lottery win of our lifetime A lot of it boils down to people not trusting what they're seeing. Frankly, governments have done the world a disservice by speaking before they really had all the information at the start of the pandemic. In Canada at least an insane amount of what was said turned out to be…

Frankly, governments have done the world a disservice by speaking before they really had all the information at the start of the pandemic.

They were doing the best they could to manage a crisis that it was their job to manage in an unprecedented situation. If people expected them to have perfect answers and solutions, they had unrealistic expectations.

Re: Linus Torvalds on mRNA Vaccines

#358

Post by adamrezich » Fri, Jun 11, 2021, 12:06 AM UTC

azangru wrote: post #268

Ok, while Linus so righteously describes the basic molecular biology of RNA, here are some of the less insane questions that he doesn't address: 1) After an injection of mRNA (inside of lipid nanoparticles, if I understand correctly) into the body, which cells will the mRNA enter? 2) The mRNA will cause the synthesis of the spike protein that will be displayed on the surface of these cells and initiate the immune res…

at some point you just have to embrace the fact that you're going to get downvoted for writing things like this, and all you can do is trust that a nonzero number of people will see the downvotes-without-replies and that that will give them pause to think

Re: Linus Torvalds on mRNA Vaccines

#359

Post by cblconfederate » Fri, Jun 11, 2021, 12:10 AM UTC

Taniwha wrote: post #308

cblconfederate wrote: post #191

Even the term antivaxxer in this case is divisive and kind of presupposes that everyone should be a provaccer. Since we are not going for herd immunity, everyone should assees their own chances before making an informed decision, which in the vast majority of cases will be to vaccinate themselves. But there are specific sideeffects in specific groups that have been documented

I'm old enough that I had measles as a kid, my grandma had polio as a kid wore a leg brace her entire life, rubella and the associated birth defects were a thing in the community - when I was a kid EVERYONE was a pro-vaxxer, they were the medical miracle that were changing people's lives - IMHO the main reason we have antivaxxers today is because we haven't been telling these family stories to our kids Why not go for…

I should have said there are 2 meanings of antivaxer in this context. One is the kooks who are/were against all vaccines and nother is the people who are suspicious of the covid vaccines. Those groups are separate and must be treated differently

Herd immunity in the general population will probably be impossible unless the areas that reach it choose to lock themselves from the rest of the world https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/28/opinion/herd-immunity-cov...

Re: Linus Torvalds on mRNA Vaccines

#360

Post by kaba0 » Fri, Jun 11, 2021, 12:11 AM UTC

belorn wrote: post #332

SECProto wrote: post #265

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> From the viewpoint of a healthy young person, the risk/reward ratio of taking a vaccine is bad. Absolutely false. The disease can and does have severe and sometimes long-lasting impacts on young healthy people. The mRNA vaccines don't have any impact worse than a sore arm. And we aren't getting to a herd immunity level of vaccination if young people are unvaccinated.

> The mRNA vaccines don't have any impact worse than a sore arm. Lets not go too far with statements like that. People with history of allergic reactions are told to not take it, and the Pfizer–BioNTech mRNA has a rate of about eleven cases per million doses of vaccine administered. As with any medicine, there are a risk/reward aspect to it. If you take a over-the-counter pain pill there is a small but detectable ris…

> People with history of allergic reactions are told to not take it

Then they should not get the vaccine and be shielded by herd immunity. There are also several other illnesses which are not compatible with vaccinations but the number of those people are small. So healthy people should partake in the vaccination as for them, the risk-reward ratio is definitely worth it.